Season Opener

Venus with Jupiter hovering above floating together over the palm trees at sunrise in south Cocoa Beach.

This post was first published on Sept. 1 at larrystake.substack.com

Today, September 1, marks the reopening of snook season on the east coast of Florida. The Southwest Florida season will reopen on October 1. As long as the surf cooperates these tasty fish can be caught from the beach anywhere in Cape Canaveral or Cocoa Beach as they shadow the abundant schools of migrating mullet and pogies (menhaden). One fish per day per person between 28” and 32” can be harvested. Be prepared to catch other fish feeding on the same schools of bait like Spanish mackerel, bluefish, jack crevalle, ladyfish, sharks and the occasional giant tarpon. When conditions are favorable, this is the most exciting time of the year for surf fishing.

Real estate sales during August were slow with 32 condos and 9 single family home sales closed during the month in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. It was the slowest month of the year so far. Condo inventory continues to shrink with a total of 309 MLS-listed condo and townhome units for sale this morning. Single family home supply remains steady with 71 homes actively for sale. Two thirds of the sold homes sold for over a million dollars with only one sale below a half million. One condo exceeded the million dollar sold price with a median selling price of all sold units of $387,000. Median monthly condo fee of the closed condos was $790.

If historical patterns hold, the four-month period from October through January is likely to bring slower activity compared to earlier this year. The reduced inventory will benefit prospective sellers by limiting competition, but it is offset by that seasonal decline in buyer demand. Sellers who know which listings they are competing with and who adjust their strategy accordingly will be better positioned for success. Good luck to all and if the process becomes tiring, take a morning off to hit the beach and try for a snook.

I hope the early risers among the readers, like myself, have been enjoying the spectacle of a bright Venus in the morning sky as it has been racing towards the far side of the Sun all summer. Its relative position to the much slower Jupiter in the early morning sky has widened drastically over the last month and it experienced its brightest point in this half of its revolution (from our perspective) just last week. We will lose sight of it in the next few months as its position in the sky gets closer to the sun and it rises later in the morning. It will reach superior conjunction on the far side of the sun in January and then, when it reemerges, will become visible in the evening sky as it completes this trip around the sun and is once again approaching Earth. One doesn’t need a telescope to understand that some of the objects in the night sky are very much closer than others.

I spotted another red-headed agama lizard yesterday, this time at my office in downtown Cocoa Beach. Their northward invasion has progressed far faster than I expected.

“The sun, with all those planets revolving around it and dependent on it, can still ripen a bunch of grapes as if it had nothing else in the universe to do.” _Galileo Galilei

 

Back to School

A SpaceX Falcon 9 first stage after being unloaded at Port Canaveral from the drone ship.

This post first appeared at larrystake.substack.com on August 11.

I will keep this update short. On this first day of school we enter our historical slow season which extends until January when our snowbirds begin arriving in numbers. Until then expect continued slow/slower activity in our residential real estate market.

Condo sales in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral in the month of July stuck to their slow pace with 41 closed unit sales compared to 50 in July 2024. Our bright spot, single-family homes, remained strong with eleven closed sales compared to seven last July. Median time on market for condos was 94 days and 55 days for SF homes. About half of all sales in both categories were cash deals.

Condo inventory continues to shrink with a total of 332 condo and townhome units for sale this morning while single family inventory climbed to 70 homes. The number of condo units on the market at any time in our area is typically around five to six times the number of single family homes reflecting the actual makeup of residential properties in our two cities. At the moment the condo segment of our market is under pressure from substantially higher condo fees, higher master insurance premiums and ongoing concrete projects in many complexes. Condos and SF homes alike are feeling the pressure of near-7% mortgage rates.

The median monthly condo fee of the units currently for sale is $718 per month. That number would be much higher if not for the units with lower fees in one and two story buildings not subject to the new regulatory oversight. Compare that $718 median monthly fee to the $425 median of the sold units just four years ago in July 2021 when mortgage rates were hovering at 3% compared to just under 7% today. Someone buying a $500,000 condo today with a 20% down, 30 year mortgage can expect to pay around $3300 a month for mortgage payment and median condo fees (not including property taxes). A buyer who bought a $500,000 unit in July of 2021 would have been looking at around $2100 a month. That big an increase in so short a time adds friction to the process.

Hopeful sellers would be wise to reexamine their asking prices if they aren’t getting any action and adjust now if necessary. There may have been comparable sales since listing that would suggest a lower price. Those sellers that are aware of their competition and who outcompete them are the ones who’ll find success.

Buyers and their agents would be well-advised to stay abreast of recent sales so they can focus on listings with reasonable asking prices. Our inventory is riddled with overpriced listings but it only requires a little homework to be able to recognize those. It is time well spent. Be aware to be successful in this market.

They’re here. We’ve been hearing reports of the red-headed African agama lizards from our neighbors in Satellite Beach and further south but I have not heard of any in Cocoa Beach yet. I have seen one in south Cocoa Beach twice in the last couple of weeks so they (or at least one) have arrived. If anyone else has seen an agama in Cocoa Beach I'd love to know where you saw it. The battle for supremacy of the invasive lizards between these large and fast lizards and the already well-established and aggressive curly tails should be epic. I watched a big curly tail chase a full-grown squirrel across a parking lot so don’t write them off. The one below was my constant back porch companion for a long time a few years ago. 

“We turn our experience and your money into your experience and our money.” the subtext to all financial advisory pitches 

Halftime Already

In the 21 years that I’ve been recording MLS data for Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral there has only been one year with a June that had fewer closed sales than 2025. That was 2008 with the Great Recession in full swing. This year with a so-far unnamed economic calamity ongoing we managed to squeak out four more condo sales (41) than we did in June 2008 (37). Our condo inventory that year averaged right around 800 units for sale most of the year while currently we have an eight month supply with an inventory of 335 units for sale. That number has been steadily decreasing since peaking just over 400 units a couple of months ago. The reasons for the contraction in inventory are unclear but seem to largely be a combo of defeated sellers withdrawing their listings and would-be sellers deciding to wait for a better market in which to list.

While the condo market meanders the single family home market remains robust with 13 closed sales during June with a median time on market of 73 days. Slightly less than half (6) of the thirteen home sales were cash deals compared to 70% of the sold condos going for cash. There are currently 61 homes for sale in the two cities with a median asking price of $899,000 and a median time on the market of 105 days. That gives us less than a five month supply at the current sales rate. The disparity between days on market for the sold homes versus the homes for sale suggests that overpricing is still an issue for much of the inventory. Sales may be slow but some sellers are being successful. Prospective sellers should be watching and learning from those who have found buyers.

The City of Cocoa Beach is celebrating its Centennial birthday this July 4th with lots of stuff happening downtown over the weekend. Hot Pink will be playing the street party Saturday night (July 5) with the usual mix of food trucks and other vendors and we are being promised a drone show. Could be a fun evening. In addition to the Centennial goings-on there are lots of new restaurants and watering holes to explore downtown for those who haven’t strolled around recently. It’s worth a visit.

P.S.A. Do not park in the funeral home parking lot at the corner of Brevard Ave. and N. 1st St. unless visiting the funeral home. After years of allowing public parking the lot is now closed and patrolled. There was a massive towing event Friday and Saturday nights this week with multiple tow trucks towing multiple cars. People who were used to parking there while enjoying a meal and/or night out downtown returned to their cars this weekend to find them towed away to an impound lot presumably somewhere on the mainland. This is probably due to the persistent piles of trash in the lot every morning, especially heavy on weekends, left by some of those enjoying the convenient free parking. Now it's over for everyone, responsible citizens and otherwise. FAFO.

“Mmmm. Oh wow.” _Mark Wiens

When the Math Ain't Mathing

The westernmost point of Cocoa Beach looking across the Banana River towards Newfound Harbor, Merritt Island.

I thought I’d take a deep dive into the current affordability of a typical oceanfront condo. Our bread and butter property type in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral is a moderately updated 2/2 unit in an older oceanfront complex with a view of the ocean. Unremarkable units of this type have recently been closing on both sides of $500,000 so I’ll use that selling price in our example. I’ll compare with sales of similar units from four years ago.

In the spring of 2021, 30 year fixed rate condo mortgages were available for around 3% interest with a 20% down payment. Prices were a little lower than the present with typical units like our subject closing in the low to mid $400s. Our example unit that closed for $430,000 in April 2021 would have had a combined monthly mortgage payment, taxes, insurance and condo fee of about $2470 after a down payment of $86,000.

A buyer paying $500,000 for that unit today with a down payment of $100,000 would be looking at a monthly cost before utilities of around $4330. In addition to doubled interest rates, most condo fees have seen a similar increase while both taxes and insurance have enjoyed their own not-insignificant inflation. In just four years the annual core costs for a new buyer of a modest 2/2 oceanfront unit has increased from around $30,000 to over $51,000. That goes a long way towards explaining the lack of enthusiasm for those properties in our current market. Absent any control over these runaway costs, sellers have but one tool with which to attract buyers and that’s price. Most have not not gotten the message and our inventory remains bloated with egregiously overpriced listings languishing on the market for months with no interest.

Even if a beaten-down seller was willing to accept $430,000 today for this unit, the same price he bought it for in 2021, the annual costs for the new owner would still be a staggering $47,000, an increase of over $17,000 a year for the privilege of owning a modest oceanfront condo in a declining market. No one would describe that math as attractive. The reality for many sellers who purchased in the last four to five years is that selling for more than they paid might be unrealistic today. Some of those with mortgages might be unable to close without bringing money to the closing table. Should they wait to sell hoping for more favorable conditions? I’m reminded of what Inspector Callahan, Dirty Harry, said to the punk about whether he had fired five or six shots.

The sellers that are pricing way above the recent similar sales “just in case” are playing an unwinnable game. As I noted in a recent post, new listings that are priced aggressively from the beginning are picking off the active buyers while the “just in case” crew stick to their high prices watching the trickle of buyers part around them to pursue other, more realistically priced properties. It’s a costly delusion. For what it’s worth, in May 2021 there were 74 closed condo sales while in our much more sedate 2025 market with eight times the inventory there were just 42 closed sales in May. Sellers, pay attention, it’s a competitive market and not everyone is going to find a buyer. Join the winners or watch them from the sidelines or, as Blue Oyster Cult put it more simply, on your feet or on your knees.

“Better a cruel truth than a comfortable delusion.” _Edward Abbey

Here It Comes

This post was first published at larrystake.substack.com on June 3.

In March we have a crescendo of converging human seasons when the peak of snowbird season overlaps with the annual gathering of school baseball teams for spring practice combined with a sprinkling of spring breakers, day-tripping bikers and NASCAR fans. It’s our busiest month here. Almost all of them are gone by middle of April.

In May, after a few weeks of very few visitors, we begin concurrent natural seasons that don’t involve large numbers of people, the Great Southern White butterflies (pictured above) return, the love bugs who have been hatching in small numbers sporadically all spring begin hatching en masse and the sea turtles return to our beaches again to lay their eggs. Mangoes are just starting to ripen and the one season we could all do without officially begins on June 1. I’m talking about the season that comes packaged with heightened background stress that’s part of every Floridian’s existence for several months every summer and fall. Between occasional shared glances at the sky we pretend a kind of peace until the wind rises and we find ourselves in line again, buying bottled water and toilet paper in ridiculous quantities. The anxiety becomes unavoidable by early August and, as last season demonstrated to the gulf coast, those west-facing beaches have to worry about potentially devastating storm surge from storms that don’t even make landfall nearby. Here on the east coast, our dunes are higher, our odds of surge less, but anxiety doesn’t respect geography.

Our inventory, to my surprise, continues to shrink after peaking at just over 400 condo units in March. There are 356 condo and townhouse units for sale this morning in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral with a median time on market of 90 days. The reduction is not from a frenzy of sales, but from a growing pessimism: fewer new listings, more quiet withdrawals. There were only forty units closed in the month of May which makes it the second slowest May in eighteen years. Only May 2020 during the Covid shutdown saw fewer closed sales in the month.

The common thread? Concession. Not a single one of those forty homes sold for its original asking price. The median sale closed at 87% of initial hopes, with eight sellers settling for less than 80%. Only five homes sold within a month, and those were the ones priced to move, selling, unsurprisingly, for an average of 94% of their asking price. There’s a lesson in there if one chooses to hear it: price realistically, or wait and bleed.

Just over half of all condos sales were cash deals and the median selling price of all sold units was $300,000. The highest price paid was $1,075,000 for a top floor 3/2 Meridian with the seven lowest sales, all non-waterfront units, going for $200,000 or less.

As summer stretches ahead, I honestly don’t know what to expect. Sales are slow, inventory is shrinking, and sellers are squinting from somewhere back in 2023. Maybe it’s economic uncertainty, or maybe it’s just the natural rhythm of a second home market that has seen its share of market tides. But at the moment, the power belongs to the buyer. And their greatest challenge may not be in finding the right place, but in finding a seller living in the present. Asking price is a good indicator of which sellers those might be.

About turtle nesting season: remember to keep no lights visible from the beach at night that might distract nesting turtles. They have a hard enough time dealing with the folks who feel a need to get up-close selfies with them.

Koko Japanese Pub downtown continues to fill up their limited seating. Their success is well-deserved and I highly recommend a visit. Looks like the food court, Destination Station, on the site of the old Yen Yen’s Chinese is ready to open. Downtown Cocoa Beach has changed quite a bit in the last couple of years, for the better in my opinion. That big generous lawn in front of the new City Hall has become a kind of commons for music, frolic and gathering. Whoever fought for that patch of grass deserves a quiet toast.

How about that rain? After months of very little rain, our yards and fruit trees are drinking it up and just in time for mango season. Let the summer begin. Cheers.

“When the facts change, I change my mind.” _John Maynard Keynes

In-between Season and Doing Fine

 Ah, May at the beach. The snowbirds, baseball teams and spring breakers have departed. The weather has warmed up and the roads, restaurants, grocery stores, beaches and golf courses are uncrowded for a few weeks. By the end of this month traffic will pick back up as schools let out for summer and day-tripping inlanders join our early summer vacationers. In the interim, the locals are breathing a little easier and walking a little slower and enjoying this beautiful place that we share.

Our condo inventory has pulled back from its recent high. This morning there are 366 condo and townhouse units for sale in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. In the month of April 42 units found a buyer so we are looking at about a nine month supply at that same sales rate. Half of the remaining inventory has been for sale for three months or longer.

There are 79 single family homes for sale in the two cities and 11 homes found a buyer in April so about a seven month supply of homes.

Buyers are active in our market although cautious. The number of price drops exceeds new listing by a wide margin daily. As sellers accept the 2025 market reality and modify their expectations accordingly I believe we’ll continue to see a steady stream of sales barring some further macro shocks to the economic system.

Get out there and enjoy May at the beach. If you haven’t stopped by the Koko Japanese Pub downtown Cocoa Beach for a meal, make plans to. They are a welcome addition to our quite varied and good restaurant selection downtown. A shot of their chirashi bowl and bluefin roll (background) at top. Both excellent.

“It makes sense to dance while the music's playing.” _Maynard G. Krebs

Inventory Explosion

 
Happy Easter Sunday everyone. I was away for a week (strong hint at location pictured above) and came back to 98 new condo listings, 89 price reductions and a mere nine new contracts. Those who’ve been following our inventory trend in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral will recall that at the end of December we had 298 total units for sale. That number has increased to 405 in the sixteen weeks since. Excluding units that listed and sold since the first of the year, 236 of the total units still for sale have hit the market since December 31. A small percentage of those have been for sale for longer but have had their combined days on market manipulated by listing agents taking advantage of a loophole in MLS policy that allows them to erase the days on market by relisting with a new MLS number thereby appearing to consumers to be a new listing. Among those not deceiving the market, about 200 units have been trying to sell since Thanksgiving or before, 23 for over 300 days, with no luck. It’s a tough market out there for sellers, especially those who are clinging to expectations in line with last year’s selling prices.

Condo fees continue their increase as tardy associations begin funding the new structural reserves. Over 135 of current listings have a monthly fee of $800 or more. Prospective buyers should be aware that there are condos whose fees still do not include structural reserve funding despite the fact that the association may have done their required structural integrity reserve study. The Legislature tossed condo associations a bone by extending the deadline until December 31, 2025 to begin that funding and many are taking full advantage of that extension. New owners in those procrastinating buildings who didn’t review the budget and SIRS thoroughly may get a nasty surprise when the full funding begins at the end of this year.

Asking prices are still widely separated from closed prices. The median dollar per square foot for closed condos in oceanfront complexes since January 1, excluding The Surf, a brand new condo downtown, is around $350 per square foot. Direct ocean units with good views are above the median. The median asking price of the same group of units for sale is $412/sq ft. The metric of $/sf is flawed and inexact so there will always be outliers but it is useful for contrasting overall seller expectations with market reality. Those two things are at odds in this market.

More than ever, participants in this market need to be aware of the trends and the realities of properties that are closing when deciding what to ask or offer. As always, knowledge is power. Best of luck out there. There are deals to be had if one knows what a deal looks like.

“I’m sorry my mic was broken for a second… At least you know I sing live.” _Lady Gaga at Coachella this weekend

Economic Policy & Effect on the Cocoa Beach Real Estate Market

First published March 7, 2025 at larrystake.substack.com. The reposts here typically lag about a week behind Substack but I thought the subject of this post deserved a swift repost.

I’d love to hear readers’ opinions and thoughts on the effects of a severely wounded stock market and the likelihood of a recession in the US (60% according to JP Morgan unless tariffs are ended) on our real estate market. Comment to this post with any thoughts or opinions. What does this mean for sellers and buyers of real estate?

Since January 1st, 82 of the 126 condos closed in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral were purchased with cash. That’s 65% of the transactions. Single family homes were bought with cash at a lower rate than condos but still over 50% with 11 of the 21 closed homes paid for with cash. The majority of homes are purchased as a primary residence so they have always been financed at a higher proportion than condos of which a large majority are intended to be used as second homes or investments. Condos that are not primary residences and bought with mortgages typically require down payments of around 25% so a substantial amount of cash is required even when using a mortgage.

Where does the cash to purchase a condo or make the large down payment usually come from? In my over two decades of selling condos here, my clients have most often liquidated investments to fund the purchase. Will the double digit percentage decline in the total US stock market in just two days deter prospective condo purchasers? Are there any who have lost so much already that a purchase is no longer possible? On the other hand, will the prospect of a prolonged declining stock market and recession encourage people to seek investment in real estate as an alternative to stocks? Can Florida real estate be expected to appreciate in the same economic environment that is cratering stock valuations? Before “Liberation Day” our real estate market was already in a precarious position with the highest inventory level in fifteen years and rising and with a sales rate that’s been declining for the last three years.

Maybe the tariffs will be quickly rescinded or modified and the market and economy will reverse course. Or maybe the tariffs will turn out to be good for the economy, an outcome that seems so farfetched at this point that I feel foolish including it as a possibility. I am not an economist but I suspect that the pool of prospective buyers for real estate in Cocoa Beach, especially for condos, has taken a major hit that is likely to impact the number of sales and selling prices moving forward. We were not trending positively before and it seems almost certain that this week’s events will not have a positive effect. Somebody please convince me that my suspicions are unfounded. I encourage your comments.

On a positive note, as is always the case this time of year, traffic has lightened up and there aren’t as many people in restaurants, at the grocery store or on the golf course. The majority of our snowbirds and spring breakers have left for home and we will continue to see fewer visitors until the end of the school year when families begin taking their summer vacations in June. May is my second favorite month in Cocoa Beach behind October. Both are uncrowded months and both enjoy good weather (barring a hurricane in October) and for the few visitors who are in the know, some of the cheapest lodging rates of the year.

Related and interesting trivia: the number of cruise passengers who embarked on their five ships yesterday in Port Canaveral was about one and a half times the population of Cocoa Beach. The Royal Caribbean ship, Utopia of the Seas, that departed yesterday for Nassau has a capacity of 5668 passengers, almost half the entire population of Cocoa Beach. Thankfully very few of those passengers find themselves driving through Cocoa Beach.

Please let me know your thoughts about your expectations of our market going forward. I suspect I may be too close to this to have considered every angle and my mind’s music is forever stuck in a minor key. If you are uncomfortable commenting publicly feel free to contact me directly.

“The human mind is like a parachute. It has to be open to work.”