Saturday, September 16, 2017

After the Big Blow



My plastic yard flamingos survived their second hurricane, unmoved.

Around midnight Sunday, I began to question my decision to ride out Irma in a little oceanfront condo in south Cocoa Beach, especially considering that my mother-in-law was a hunkering down in the next room on my recommendation. I'd had my wife evacuate her to Cocoa Beach from her home in the projected path on the west coast. A storm passing 100 miles away shouldn't be a threat. Right? But, with no Weather Channel updates since the power went out at 7:30, and the intensity of the noise outside, I couldn't be certain that the storm hadn't taken a hard turn and was hitting Cocoa Beach directly. My doubts began when the first air conditioner blew off the roof and into the pool. I had an idea what it might be but with all shutters closed I couldn't be sure that it wasn't a Cessna. We all eventually managed to drift off to sleep in the absence of a shutter failure and woke early wondering what sunrise would reveal.

Not bad. No catastrophic building failures were visible in our immediate area but most every building was showing some signs of damage with older buildings faring the worst. Elsewhere Cocoa Beach had a few buildings that are probably total losses like the Sea Aire Motel and the funeral home among others. The downtown area was especially hard hit with many commercial buildings losing their roofs including my office and the Police Department/City Hall. It's now six days later and many areas of Cocoa Beach are still without power including my neighbors right across A1A in south Cocoa Beach and most of downtown. Water supply to Cocoa Beach was lost during the storm but most properties had water restored by Wednesday. During the waterless days I, like many residents, used a debris filled pool for my daily bath and as a water supply for flushing toilets.

Some traffic lights are working today and a few businesses have reopened. I just heard that downtown will likely not have power restored until after the weekend. Overall, we were fortunate to escape with the damage we had. I know those who suffered the greater damages or those still without power don't feel very lucky but it only takes a look at the Keys to confirm our fortune.

I won't try to detail all impacts but thought those who aren't here would appreciate some report of the impact. We are battered, bruised but still standing and, some of us, looking forward to a cooked meal.

"Get up, stand up: don't give up the fight." __Bob Marley

Tuesday, September 05, 2017

Grape Sky in Morning

I'm not sure what sailor's advice there is for purple sunrises but we got a beaut last week.

The first week of September and all of Florida is on alert for approaching Category 5 Hurricane Irma. It's still too early to know where landfall will be but most of us have our plans in place should we need to move.

I wish I could report that the inventory situation is improving but it's not. Our for sale inventory in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral stands this morning at a mere 194 existing condos and townhomes and 54 single family homes. At the August rate of 18 closed sales those 54 homes will be gone in three months. The 194 condo units for sale will last 81 days if we continue to close 74 units a month as happened in August. Of course, that assumes all 194 are fairly priced. That isn't the case. Many of the overpriced of the 194 will continue to linger while new, fairly priced listings sell around them.

Six direct ocean units sold for $300 per square foot or more during the month. All six were nicely remodeled and had garages and three were sold fully furnished. The other ten direct ocean east facing units brought between $226 and $270/sf with 1st floor units and those without garages bringing the lower prices. We're seeing more buyers using mortgages for condos than earlier this year with slightly more than half of the 74 condo sales financed.

Twenty one of the condos sold in the first week on the market and over half sold in a month or less. When I look at the units still for sale, over a third have been on the market for over four months, a sure sign of overpricing in this tight market. Thirty one units are asking over $300 per square foot. A few deserve it and will probably get it but the vast majority are hoping for a miracle that's not going to happen. Sellers need to realize that lack of inventory doesn't mean buyers are going to pay whatever dream number they hang on their property. Buyers should be familiar with the comparable units that have closed to come up with fair offering prices. Offers well below asking price better have justification from sold comps. A fair offer well below asking that can be justified with comps stands a chance at success as long as the seller is reasonable. Unfortunately, most of the overpriced listings are not being sold by reasonable people. The market may be tight but the units that are selling are, for the most part, selling for fair value. I still get a lot of calls and emails from people looking for "deals". In 2017, in this market, that is usually a fool's errand that goes unfulfilled. Finding a fairly priced property is task enough and, so far, in this rising market, is being rewarded.

I hope everyone fairs well through the upcoming weather. LW out and hunkering down.
Completely off-topic but good advice about loaning money:

If you face the choice between feeling guilt and resentment, choose the guilt every time. If a refusal saddles you with guilt, while consent leaves resentment in its wake, opt for the guilt. Resentment is soul suicide.” ~Gabor Maté, MD