A Snowbird Buyers' Market - Full Post

This post originally appeared at my new site at substack. To read posts without delay as I write them, you can subscribe to the blog to have new posts sent to your inbox as soon as they are published. Visit the new site here.

We are starting our 2025 property journey in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral with a full tank of listings. There are a total of 390 residential properties for sale in the two cities this morning, 340 of those condos or townhomes. At our current thirty day average pace of sales that is enough supply to last until after Halloween.

The flood of new listings since the beginning of the year has pulled our median time on market for all listings down to 78 days but do not be fooled. One hundred of current listings have been languishing on the market without finding a buyer since last July or longer. It’s a good time for those frustrated sellers to reevaluate their strategy.

We are coming into our historically strongest season for sales which usually peaks in March and April. With a higher rate of new listings than sales, existing listings have more competition with each sunrise. New listings have the benefit of knowing which existing listings aren’t moving and at what price and have the opportunity to offer a better price their first day on the market. Those sellers with existing stale listings who really want to sell need to decide whether they want to continue risking no sale or face reality and price accordingly to get in front of the new listings. The comps that justified an asking price last summer have been replaced by more recent sales. Sellers and agents of older listings need to forget their comps from last year and do a brand new CMA based on more recent sales to determine what asking price is likely to attract a buyer now. For most of these old listings the right price will be less than their current asking price.

As I looked through the older listings one stood out for its unorthodox history of up and down price changes. It is an oceanfront condo and has been for sale since July of 2022. The unit has been tastefully remodeled and should appeal to most buyers looking for a 1/1 unit on the ocean. If anyone can figure out the reason for this pricing strategy I’m all ears.

• July 2022 - $360,000
• Nov 2022 - $350,000
• Jan 2023 - $340,000
• Feb 2023 - $315,000
• Aug 2023 - $319,000
• Sep 2023 - $317,000
• Oct 2023 - $312,000
• July 2024 - $320,000
• Aug 2024 - $310,000
• Sep 2024 - $305,000
• Dec 2024 - $350,000

Based on the fact that this unit is still for sale after two and a half years of trying, the up and down pricing strategy isn’t working. Logic tells me that if $350,000 didn’t attract a buyer two years ago, it’s not going to now. Here’s another;

• Jun 2023 - $525,000
• Aug 2023 - $515,000
• Sep 2023 - $499,999
• Sep 2023 - $515,000
• Nov 2023 - $480,000
• Dec 2023 - $490,000
• Apr 2024 - $480,000
• May 2024 - $460,000
• Jun 2024 - $450,000
• Dec 2024 - $420,000

And there it sits, still on the market after a year and a half with no sale even at $105,000 below the original asking price. The unit itself has been totally and beautifully remodeled and would appeal to most buyers looking for a unit in an oceanfront building. The problem is that there are no comparable sales to support the asking price of $420,000. Had the price been $420,000 in 2023 maybe it would have sold. We’ll never know but we do know that during the time it’s been on the market, taxes and condo fees alone have cost the seller over $27,000.

Hopeful sellers should take note of these examples and price their listings attractively from the beginning. Starting high “just in case” didn’t work for these two sellers and many others and it probably won’t work for anyone else in this market. The market has softened for condos during the time that these units have been for sale.

I would also encourage sellers to examine their listings in the MLS. Heaven forbid your unit that’s been listed since last year has been missing the condo name, like 27 of the current listings. There are buyers looking for a unit in specific buildings with auto-searches in the MLS that alert them to listings in the condos specified in their search. Your listing that has the subdivision name instead of the condo name will not trigger an alert to those people, the very ones you are marketing to. We also have listings with incorrect number of bedrooms, missing garages or incorrect condo fee information. Those mistakes could eliminate a listing from MLS searches using any of those criteria. Your agent might have made an honest mistake or maybe she doesn’t understand the MLS entry fields but, no matter the reason, in this market a seller cannot afford to exclude their listing from search results because of incorrect listing info.

See you at the new site. Link here.

“When you choose your behavior, you choose the consequences.” _unknown

A Snowbird Buyers' Market

After 21 years here at Blogger, I am in the process of changing platforms for the blog. This site will remain up but new posts will originate at the new site and appear here later. I would encourage readers to subscribe at the new site to receive new posts in their inbox the day they are published. Your email address will remain private and not shared or used in any way other than to send new posts the couple of times a month when they are published. Try sorting the list of posts as "Top" rather than "Latest" for a different experience. Please let me know what you think of the new platform.

My latest post, A Snowbird Buyers' Market can be read with this link. 

Off-topic but as I was looking at the four visible planets last night it hit me that even though I could see them at the same time, I was not seeing them as they were in the same moment. I was looking into the past and seeing Mars as it was three or four minutes earlier, Jupiter as it was over a half hour earlier and Saturn as it appeared over an hour earlier. Time travel without a machine.

"Even if you get a good wave, you still gotta paddle back out, you know?" _Tom Curren

Inventory Ramping Up - Sales Slowing

This little guy became disoriented during the last hurricane and when I approached him afterwards he walked over and hopped into my hand like I was a long lost friend. I took him back to the dunes where the rest of his family hangs out and hopefully he is still among those happily munching on my sweet potatoes and other plants that were not originally planted there for the marsh rabbits' culinary pleasure. However, I'm happy they enjoy them and will be planting new ones shortly.

Inventory in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral has increased by about 11% in the two weeks since December 31 and we now have the highest number of condo and townhome units for sale since 2011. There have been 50 new condo and townhome listings added so far in January during which period only 15 units went under contract. Sixty five units have been for sale for six months or longer, most of them with multiple price drops that so far haven't produced a buyer. In addition to the highest inventory in fourteen years and rising rapidly, we had the lowest number of sales in fifteen years last year. Whether either of these trends persist into the year is unknown but the chart below illustrates that these trends have been ongoing for the last four years. 

Sellers take note. There are more of you competing for fewer buyers who are staring at once-again rising mortgage rates and skyrocketing condo fees and insurance. A third of the condo units currently for sale have monthly fees of $800 or more with sixty of them at $900 or more. While few were paying attention mortgage rates climbed almost a full point since September and are right at 7% at the moment for a 30 year fixed rate loan. If I was selling right now I'd not be expecting to get as much as I would have last year or the year before and if I was buying I'd be in no rush to offer unless I found the perfect unit at a price I liked. There are obviously exceptions to this but it's clear that this is no longer a seller's market. Conduct yourselves accordingly.

Pray for warmer weather, y'all. Floridians are suffering and many are woefully underequipped with cold weather clothing. Welcome early snowbirds and go ahead and laugh. The pain is real for us.

"If you don't remember what you said, it may be a sign you didn't say it." _Newt Gingrich