Economic Policy & Effect on the Cocoa Beach Real Estate Market

First published March 7, 2025 at larrystake.substack.com. The reposts here typically lag about a week behind Substack but I thought the subject of this post deserved a swift repost.

I’d love to hear readers’ opinions and thoughts on the effects of a severely wounded stock market and the likelihood of a recession in the US (60% according to JP Morgan unless tariffs are ended) on our real estate market. Comment to this post with any thoughts or opinions. What does this mean for sellers and buyers of real estate?

Since January 1st, 82 of the 126 condos closed in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral were purchased with cash. That’s 65% of the transactions. Single family homes were bought with cash at a lower rate than condos but still over 50% with 11 of the 21 closed homes paid for with cash. The majority of homes are purchased as a primary residence so they have always been financed at a higher proportion than condos of which a large majority are intended to be used as second homes or investments. Condos that are not primary residences and bought with mortgages typically require down payments of around 25% so a substantial amount of cash is required even when using a mortgage.

Where does the cash to purchase a condo or make the large down payment usually come from? In my over two decades of selling condos here, my clients have most often liquidated investments to fund the purchase. Will the double digit percentage decline in the total US stock market in just two days deter prospective condo purchasers? Are there any who have lost so much already that a purchase is no longer possible? On the other hand, will the prospect of a prolonged declining stock market and recession encourage people to seek investment in real estate as an alternative to stocks? Can Florida real estate be expected to appreciate in the same economic environment that is cratering stock valuations? Before “Liberation Day” our real estate market was already in a precarious position with the highest inventory level in fifteen years and rising and with a sales rate that’s been declining for the last three years.

Maybe the tariffs will be quickly rescinded or modified and the market and economy will reverse course. Or maybe the tariffs will turn out to be good for the economy, an outcome that seems so farfetched at this point that I feel foolish including it as a possibility. I am not an economist but I suspect that the pool of prospective buyers for real estate in Cocoa Beach, especially for condos, has taken a major hit that is likely to impact the number of sales and selling prices moving forward. We were not trending positively before and it seems almost certain that this week’s events will not have a positive effect. Somebody please convince me that my suspicions are unfounded. I encourage your comments.

On a positive note, as is always the case this time of year, traffic has lightened up and there aren’t as many people in restaurants, at the grocery store or on the golf course. The majority of our snowbirds and spring breakers have left for home and we will continue to see fewer visitors until the end of the school year when families begin taking their summer vacations in June. May is my second favorite month in Cocoa Beach behind October. Both are uncrowded months and both enjoy good weather (barring a hurricane in October) and for the few visitors who are in the know, some of the cheapest lodging rates of the year.

Related and interesting trivia: the number of cruise passengers who embarked on their five ships yesterday in Port Canaveral was about one and a half times the population of Cocoa Beach. The Royal Caribbean ship, Utopia of the Seas, that departed yesterday for Nassau has a capacity of 5668 passengers, almost half the entire population of Cocoa Beach. Thankfully very few of those passengers find themselves driving through Cocoa Beach.

Please let me know your thoughts about your expectations of our market going forward. I suspect I may be too close to this to have considered every angle and my mind’s music is forever stuck in a minor key. If you are uncomfortable commenting publicly feel free to contact me directly.

“The human mind is like a parachute. It has to be open to work.”

State of the Cocoa Beach Market

This post was first published at Substack on March 25. To receive notice of new posts when they are published subscribe to larrystake.substack.com at Substack.com.

Falcon launch yesterday as seen from the backyard. We were able to watch the rocket return and land at the Cape a few minutes later followed by the double sonic booms.

I concentrate most of my research and commentary on our condo market since condos and townhomes typically represent about five times the number of sales and listings in the Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral market that single-family homes do. Right now there are a total of 465 total residential listings in our market and only 74 of them are single-family homes.

Looking at this same time last year there were 41 homes for sale and they were selling at a rate of eleven per month so less than a four month supply on hand in March 2024. So far, in the eleven weeks since January 1, exactly twelve homes have gone under contract. At that sales rate we have about a 17 month supply if no increase in inventory so enough to last until about August of next year.

What does this mean for those who are trying to sell their homes? With about one home finding a buyer per week, competition for buyers has almost tripled in just a year. Sellers should expect to take longer to sell and should not expect to get as much as they might have last year. Without an uptick in the sales rate, with a 17 month supply, the math says several of the current listings will still be on the market this time next year. Those will be the ones unwilling to accept the current reality and who do not price accordingly. Those who aren’t paying attention and pricing fairly are not going to sell. Buyers are fewer and they’re skittish with employment worries and uncertainty with regards to insurance and the economy in general. Our current market demands a different strategy. Good luck to those hoping to sell and congratulations to those twelve who successfully picked off buyers so far this year. The other 74 still on the market would be prudent to study the details of recent comparable sales, primarily the selling prices. Knowledge is power.

This month marks the 21st anniversary of this blog. I have never been without material to write about. When I began writing about our market we were in the boom years of 2004 to 2006 when buyers were being chosen by lottery just for the opportunity to reserve pre-construction condos. The crash hit us hard in 2007 and we quickly transitioned from a strong seller’s market into a market dominated by distressed sales. There were zero distressed sales in 2007 but in 2008 we began seeing short sales as previously optimistic investors began unloading negative-equity properties with cooperation from their lenders. By 2010 over half of all sales were distressed, either short sales or foreclosures. It took until 2017 to completely work through our supply of distressed listings. Inventory was at its peak in 2006 and began a decline that lasted until 2015 when it stabilized for a few years before resuming its decline until 2022 when it finally bottomed. It has been steadily increasing since 2022 and we now have the highest inventory of residential properties since 2010 combined with a sales rate that has been in decline since 2021. We shall see how this works out but the trends in sales and inventory do not signal a healthy market. I would advise sellers to look at their competition and the comparable properties that are selling and price accordingly. That is imperative if they want to join the shrinking group who are being successful.

"If you are leaping a ravine, the moment of takeoff is a bad time to be considering alternative strategies." _John Cleese