The Power of Pricing

For our first progress report of 2026 let’s dive into the details of the fifteen closed condo and townhouse sales in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral so far in the first three weeks of January. There was one off-market sale that was entered in the MLS for comp purposes so I’ll omit that one from our examination.

The fifteen closed sales averaged selling for 85% of their original asking price and were on the market for an average of 157 days. Note that I used the actual days on market rather than the lower manipulated CDOM (combined days on market) number showing on several of the closed listings. The average 85% of original asking price is not a sign of a healthy market but it does hint that more sellers are accepting the fact that their original price expectations were overly optimistic. There is another story hidden within the overall story and it stands out in strong contrast to the averages.

There were five listings that sold in less than 24 days on the market and they averaged 98% of original asking price. Price correctly and sell quickly. It seems an easy concept to understand but it was ignored by two thirds of the sellers who wound up making multiple price drops over months to finally arrive at a price that worked. Without easy access to market stats sellers have to rely on their listing agents to do the homework and advise them on competitive pricing. Knowing the neighbor sold two years ago for $XXX makes for some resistance to today’s reality even though the agent may present more recent comps that suggest that $XXX is no longer competitive. I’ve had many sellers insist on initially listing for a number higher than the comps will justify “just in case”. There have been years when that sometimes worked. We are not currently in one of those periods. Those who hope to sell need to price correctly from the beginning if they want to sell in a reasonable time.

If I eliminate the five listings that priced correctly and sold quickly, the other ten sold listings averaged 79% of original asking price and lingered on the market for an average of 229 days enduring multiple price drops until they finally reached a number the market agreed with. One stubborn seller did eight price drops over 357 days to finally sell for 59% of their original asking price. Another sat on their listing for 429 days and did seven price changes before finally selling for 82% of the original price. I would advise any prospective seller to have their listing agent do a thorough market analysis and to listen to their advice. Buyers are here now and are active. Correctly priced listings are the ones attracting those buyers. Now is the time to act for sellers who want to take advantage of our historically strongest selling season.

“This is the end of the innocence.” _Don Henley 1989

 

Do Not Be Deceived

Games are afoot in the Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral real estate market. If one looks for the time on market of the current condo and townhouse inventory of 314 units, the median appears to be 95 days. Not great but not historically awful. Peeking at the listing history of the newest listings tells a different story. About a third of all new listings within the last forty days have had their listings manipulated to reset the Cumulative Days On Market (CDOM), almost all of them with the intention/hope of deceiving buyers and their agents. I would advise all prospective buyers and their agents to search the listing history of any potential target property to get the true history of the listing. There are several listings that were cancelled around the end of the year and reentered into the MLS in January with zero CDOM and higher prices than the just-cancelled listing. Sellers and their agents believe that their negotiating strength is greater with a property that appears to be a new listing than with one that has obviously been sitting on the market for a long time. Several of the listings that have low CDOMs have, in some cases, been on the market for over a year. The true time on market is likely to influence the price of an offer so the selling parties justify their ethical fluidity with the hope of a better eventual selling price.

The number of condo listings that are being offered at less than the seller's purchase price is increasing but is greatly outnumbered by the overpriced listings whose sellers remain in denial about the reality of current market conditions and selling prices. As I mentioned in an earlier post, many who purchased between 2021 and 2024 are finding out that selling their unit and realizing a profit or even just breaking even is not possible. We continue to see lower selling prices in many of our complexes and the units that are selling are the ones that are priced in line with the current reality.

I would advise all potential buyers to research recent selling prices and listing history of any possible targets. Don’t be swayed by the fact that several similar units in the same building are all asking similar high prices. Asking prices are just that, asking. They are in many cases unrelated to the reality of the selling prices of units that have actually closed. As always, knowledge is power and in the purchase of a condo or townhouse in our market it can be worth tens of thousands of dollars. Do your homework.

“The plural of anecdote is not data.” unknown

 

Cocoa Beach SF Home Sales - 2025

The market for single family homes in 2025 was distinctly different from the condo market. It was a busy year for this market segment with a total of 113 homes sold, 98 of them in Cocoa Beach. Thirty four homes sold for at least a million dollars with a highest price paid of $2.58 MM for a 4920 square foot direct ocean home south of downtown Cocoa Beach. Highest price paid for a non-waterfront house was $1.625 MM for a beautiful, brand new 4/5 a half block from the ocean in south Cocoa Beach. Median price paid was $753,000 with a low of $325,000 for a cute but tiny 2/1 in Cape Canaveral four blocks from the beach.

Almost half, 49, of the homes sold for cash and median time on market was 61 days. We entered 2026 with just over sixty houses for sale in a range between $365,000 and $3.5 MM. Median time on the market for the 63 listings active this morning is 87 days. There doesn’t seem to be as many headwinds for our SF home market as the condo market which continues to struggle. Many condo purchases are discretionary being bought as second homes or investments and that market is reactionary to consumer sentiment and the macro economic landscape. The majority of SF home buyers are buying for residence and less likely to have the luxury of postponing their purchase while waiting for more favorable economic conditions. I expect sales of homes in 2026 to follow the healthy trend established in 2025 with a similar sales rate and stable pricing.

The condo market is facing a much different year and I expect slower sales and lower prices for that market in 2026. I’m not sure what it would take to reinvigorate prospective condo buyers considering the already high and rising condo fees other than drastically lower prices. How much lower remains a mystery as the bulk of sellers so far have been unwilling (or unable if they bought in the last few years) to accept that asking prices must compensate higher holding costs if they hope to sell. The reckoning looms.

On that note, beware predictions based on countywide trends. Many real estate sites and salespeople will spin positive forecasts using statistics from Brevard County as a whole while conveniently not mentioning the fact that some market segments behave counter to the whole, our beach condo market being Exhibit A. Treat with suspicion any claim that rhymes with “now is a great time to buy” especially if it’s coming from someone who will profit from your purchase.

I hope the half dozen or so home buyers who closed on their new homes in the long-stalled development in south Cocoa Beach four and five years ago will finally get a chance to move into their new homes this year. I’m not optimistic that will happen. There has been little progress on the homes under construction over the last few years and none have been completed. Have those buyers who closed five years ago been paying property taxes on their unfinished homes? Mortgage payments? What’s going on? Anyone? I would love to know the whole story of what’s going on there.

“There’s a distinct difference in rationalizing and being rational.” unknown 

Condo Wrap 2025

The numbers are in and it’s official. With a total of 471 condo and townhouse units sold, 2025 was the slowest year for condo sales in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral since 2009 when 420 units changed hands. Just four years ago in 2021, 863 units were sold. Inventory during 2025 continued its three year rapid expansion from the low in 2022 and climbed to the highest supply we’ve seen in twelve years. In 2021 and 2022 average inventory ranged between 45 and 55 units and many complexes saw record prices paid. Several units purchased during that time have since been resold at a loss, at least one at less than half the price paid in 2022. Some others who bought then have been trying unsuccessfully to sell at prices substantially below their purchase price. This year we averaged around 300 units for sale at any one time with a brief blip up to just over 400 in April. We are beginning 2026 with just over 300 units for sale at prices between $59,000 and $1,490,000 with a median asking price of $347,000.

Thanks to 21 closings at the brand new luxury building, The Surf, in downtown Cocoa Beach, we had 29 condo sales of a million dollars or more with a penthouse unit at The Surf setting the 2025 record for highest priced condo sale at $3.15 MM. Most of these units were reserved pre-construction between 2020 and 2022 when our existing inventory bottomed. I suspect the number of sales and prices paid would have been very different had those units not been offered until 2025. There are only five units offered this morning in our two cities for over a million.

The median price paid in 2025 was $352,500. Median time on market was 84 days. We saw units at some complexes selling at prices radically lower than two and three years ago. Canaveral Towers, for example, saw average selling prices in 2025 from 25% to 30% below the average prices paid in 2021 to 2023. There were similar value drops at many other large complexes like The Diplomat in Cocoa Beach. Some other smaller complexes where there were no sales during the mania years like Boardwalk in downtown Cocoa Beach appear to have been unaffected with prices paid this year similar to prices paid in 2022 when the last unit was sold. Many others had no sales during the year and have no way of knowing what price the current market might be willing to deliver.

Uncertainty seems to be the overriding force in our condo market as we enter the new year. We can only speculate about what our spring “busy” season will bring but many seller’s fingers are crossed hoping that the trend that persisted through 2025 will reverse. I am seeing nothing yet to support that hope.

Condo fees are at an all-time high having increased rapidly over the last two years. Over 20% of current listings have a monthly fee of $900 a month or higher with a median for the total condo inventory of $700 a month. The median monthly fee of the sold units in 2022 was $475 with only five of them over $900. Higher fees are a large part of the issues fueling the slowdown. Will buyers eventually make peace with high fees? Are the absent buyers waiting on the sidelines for better prices or have they given up on purchasing a beach condo altogether because of higher expenses and general uncertainty? We may never know. It should be an interesting year.

On a positive note, Port Canaveral resumed its position as the world’s busiest cruise port serving 8.5 million passengers in 2025. It is now the home port of eighteen ships among seven major cruise lines. Unfortunately, those passengers don’t appear to be buying condos.

I’ll follow with another report in a few days with a rundown of the single-family home market which had an entirely different 2025 than did the condo market. Cheers and Happy New Year.

“Keep moving. It’s hard for old age to hit a moving target.” _Joan Rivers