Thursday, January 13, 2011

We have convergence

I mentioned in the year's first post that we would soon see convergence on the graph of yearly sales and inventory of MLS listed condos in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. What I failed to take into account was that the convergence had already happened if we look at the sales on a monthly basis rather than yearly [extrapolated chart below]. We hit exactly one year's worth of inventory sometime in mid-December. This burn rate has been steadily declining from a high of 25 months supply (all prices) in 2006.

The supply number for luxury (over $500,000) condos has been knocked down even more from a high of over seven years supply to the current less than two years supply based on 2010's sales and today's MLS inventory. Two major factors in this decline was the sellout of Meridian last year and the decline in prices of unsold units pushing many below the half-million dollar mark. Keep in mind that the real number of "for sale" luxury units is understated on the MLS.

So far in 2011 sales have been slow with only 7 closed condos and 2 single family homes. A small 3/2 canal home in good condition on Watts Way in Cocoa Beach closed for $250,000. A remodeled 2152 square foot, 4/2 canal home on a big lot in Snug Harbor with a pool closed as a short sale for $340,000.

In condo sales another Meridian owner has bailed at a loss. This first floor (actually second floor in this building) direct 3/2 unit closed for $545,000 just two and a half years after selling new for $627,000. The original selling broker received a check for $31,350 as this was in the time when the developer was enticing agents with obscene paydays for delivering buyers. You know how I feel about this practice.

A bomb of a deal hit at Crescent Beach Club in south Cocoa Beach when a 4th floor, direct ocean, original condition 3/2 with 1804 square feet and garage sold for $249,000 this week.

Another direct river, 2/2, 2nd floor corner at Cape Shores with open parking closed for $136,000.

At the low end of the price scale a foreclosed small 1/1 unit in the riverfront complex Essex House of Cocoa Beach sold for $28,000.

When two opposite points of view are expressed with equal intensity, the truth does not necessarily lie exactly halfway between them. It is possible for one side to be simply wrong.
____ Richard Dawkins


  1. In this article Forbes lists the cities with the worst outlooks for home values in 2011. Florida cities take 7 out of 10 spots, and what they refer to as the Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville area is in the #5 spot for worst home values in 2011. They predict it will take until 2014 until things turn around.

    I very much respect your opinion. What are your thoughts on this?

  2. Who knows when recovery will happen for the Palm Bay and Titusville areas of the market. Both of those areas were heavily overbuilt during the boom years. The Palm Bay area this morning has 228 foreclosure listings on the MLS and 455 short sales. That's more than the total of all residential listings in the Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral area. The Titusville area of the county has 129 foreclosures and 233 short sales.

    Our micro-market on the beach with very different dynamics will likely continue to perform very differently than both those troubled areas. I see price bottom in our market way before 2014.

  3. Nice view on the photo. A great place to have fun with your family and friends.

    Angelo H