Friday, April 29, 2011

Honey, I shrunk the inventory

The shot above is of shuttle Discovery a few years ago as seen
from south Cocoa Beach. Endeavour is set for launch this
afternoon for it's last mission.
[update: Launch rescheduled again. No sooner than May 16.]

Discovery's next mission, which will be the last ever shuttle
launch, is scheduled for June 28.

The rapidly shrinking MLS inventory of condos and townhomes in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral sits at 392 this morning, a record low. For perspective that is 63% less units for sale than at the peak in 2006 (1049 units) and 33% less than in March 2010. At the current sales rate we have less than an eight month supply (in all prices). If we look at the most active part of our market, units selling for less than $100,000, the current supply will be exhausted in less than five months. The supply is greater as the prices move up. For units selling between $100,000 and $300,000 we have a seven month supply. In the $300,000 to $500,000 range the current supply will last 13 months. Once we pass the half million dollar mark we have enough units for sale today to last for 28 months at the current sales rate. These numbers are for MLS-listed units only.

Sales have remained strong so far through April and we should finish the month with around 50 closed units. Of the 41 sales closed so far, five were short sales and five were foreclosures, only one of the ten was for more than $150,000. My next post will detail the sales of note for the month of April.

Single family home inventory is in a similar precarious position with less than a ten month supply at current levels and sales rate. Ten homes have closed so far this month, the bulk at prices between $200,000 and $300,000.

For anyone looking for a weekly rental oceanfront condo, I have several nice units available directly from the owners at very good prices. These are not on the MLS and prices range from low $100s to mid $200s.

"Honk if you're paying your mortgage" ___bumper sticker I saw yesterday


  1. Question
    after reading the report from Clear Capital I would be interested in your thoughts--As national home prices reached new lows this past winter,hopes remain for a spring revival.The current home buying season will be the first since 2008 without any tax credit incentive.The last time no incentives were in place and distressed inventories were this high,home prices fell sharply.Do you feel the market in your area will fall at another alarming rate.

  2. Which market, mid-range condos, luxury homes, luxury recently built condos? There is no "market". There are many small markets within the overall market. As I've said many times, no one buys our market, they buy a property in one of the small markets. I don't see a precipitous price drop in our future for most of our mini-markets. Sharp drops become less likely the further away from the top we get. With prices down 50% to 75% from their peak, significant downside is limited. There is still pain to be felt in luxury recently built condos like Meridian. Because of the unfortunate timing of completion of the project, every single owner was underwater the moment they closed. We've already seen several units sell at discounts to the new price and there are short sales under contract right now that will contribute to the decline there.

  3. Interesting view of the macro Cocoa Beach market over the last 4 years