Friday, November 09, 2012

The trend is your friend (sometimes)

Click on charts for larger easier-to-read versions.

The trends of recent months remain firmly in place. Sales held strong through October (55 condos and 9 single family homes) even as the inventory depletion continued. At October's rate of sales it will take just five months to sell the entire MLS inventory.

Distressed listings (short sales and foreclosures) in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral are now at their lowest point since 2007 when there were none. Of our total residential inventory of 325 homes and condos there are only 32 short sales and foreclosures offered, 10%. Only one of those is a single family home.

2013 should be an interesting and different year for real estate sales in our market. I expect selling prices to continue their slow increase as a side effect of the low inventory and diminishing distressed listings. We should also see far fewer total sales next year unless some as-yet-unknown source of properties falls on our market. The rumored backlog of bank-owned properties predicted to flood markets has yet to appear here on the beach. At this point I see no reason to think that we will see any significant number of new bank-owned listings here. County records show quite a few REO properties in other parts of our county but they include very few in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. Personal anecdotal observations seem to indicate far fewer unit owners behind on condo fees than in recent years. This from daily conversations with owners, board members and property managers. That would support my hunch that there are not a lot of pre-foreclosure or future short sale condos hiding out there.

Buyers need to realize the changes in our market and adjust their expectations accordingly if they hope to purchase a property here. Those hanging their hats on paying no more than the lowest price already recorded for a comparable property will likely be disappointed. Unless there are multiple units selling at the exact same price, only one buyer buys at the absolute bottom. Everyone else has to be content with buying near the bottom. At current prices, missing the absolute bottom by a few thousand dollars does not a bad deal make. Buyers with reasonable expectations (swift decision making doesn't hurt) are still being occasionally rewarded with smoking deals.

“Markets aren’t completely efficient, but they are mostly efficient. Easy money tends to be rapidly removed by the largest, fastest, most connected participants. In other words, someone other than you.” __from Mortality Sucks


  1. Would be interesting to hear from Snowman to see if he feels like the market has bottomed yet.

  2. I'll go out on a limb here and guess that he predicts another 30% leg down and 1000s of new foreclosed condos in the near future.

  3. It's nice to know I have not been left in the dust.I admit the market has perked up ten fold at this point in time.BUT---I do believe things are on the wrong track again.People don't learn for their mistakes.Same-o Same-o. FHA is now about out of funds and you and I will have to bail them out.Sounds like Freddie and Fannie.Sorry I don't believe things are better than before. Things are actully worse now.I won't even mention going "over the cliff"but we will---no politician is going to tell his people that he wants to raise the tax rate.The "cliff"makes a higher tax rate fall into place without one politico taking the blame.You watch and see whats going to happen. The current adminastration wants to see us go over--because------thats what the president wanted from the git--go.This way--he gets his way.Anyway---thanks for remembering me.PS starting to snow outside--gotta get the shovel out.

  4. Good to hear from you, Snowman. Hope all is well and you make it down this season. Off to the Art Festival for me. Biggest turnout in history yesterday.

  5. Thanks--been really busy.Will be down for a period in March.