Peak AirBnB. Buzzkill?

Hurricane Nicole pushed a lot of sand around and the dune plants were covered in a thick layer of blown sand after the storm while the actual erosion was minimal. Unfortunately my porch was similarly coated. There have been a few articles written speculating on why Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral were spared the erosion both north and south of us. Credit has been given to our periodic beach renourishment. While that certainly helped I think there is another greater factor. 

Every local surfer knows that during big winter north swells the Cape shadows Cape Canaveral and Cocoa Beach from that swell. It can be double-overhead in Satellite Beach while the Pier is waist high at the same time. The north wind and waves as Nicole was approaching that was chewing up oceanfront structures in Volusia County and Satellite Beach was way less impactful in Cocoa Beach because of that shadow and that saved us from damaging erosion. This is not the first time I've seen this phenomenon here.

Having written about the Cocoa Beach real estate market for eighteen years now, I am often asked about my thoughts on the state of the market. Ever-increasing selling prices of properties are usually the main subject of these discussions. People like to mentally tabulate their net worth gains whether they're thinking of selling a property or not. These discussions have increasingly included speculation about a slowdown or pull back and what might be the trigger. I'll take a stab at that.

I believe we have reached and passed the peak in prices for most property types. There are certain unique properties that are less affected by macro market conditions and may continue to appreciate but for most I think we've hit the wall for the current cycle. Condos are certainly not among those unaffected types. Appreciation has been strong since the bottom in prices around 2010. Many condos bought between 2010 and 2015 that sold this year closed for two to three times the purchase price. When I narrow my focus to properties closed in the last six months that were purchased after 2018 I'm seeing examples of as much as 48% annual appreciation. While the annualized number is remarkably high, the bulk of those gains accumulated during the crazy runup in prices this year. The high prices are what prompted many of these sellers to sell even though they only purchased a year or two ago.

It's not surprising to see properties bought a decade ago during the post-crash bottom sell for three times the purchase price but it is concerning to see properties bought less than two years ago sell for almost double the purchase price. Weekly rental condos have been among the most rapidly appreciating types. There has been quite a lot of media attention this year alluding to the wealth to be made owning vacation rental properties. While short-term rentals can generate quite strong cash flows, the reality is that those who paid this year's prices and who must hire management will be netting quite a bit less than the get-rich podcasts may have promised. I think we'll look back on 2022 as peak AirBnB. Earlier this year there were feeding frenzies of buyers with every new vacation rental listing. Multiple offers first day on the market were expected and most units sold over asking price. We had multiple sales of weekly units without garages closing for over $700 per square foot. These prices are unjustifiable in my opinion. We saw short-term rental rates skyrocket during the pandemic and while they may remain at these elevated levels, I don't see much room for increases. The increased competition in our area has taken away rental pricing power and reduced occupancy for all but the most desirable properties. New owners are finding that a nice but not great unit is not enjoying the same occupancy the rental history may have showed and the 20% to 35% short-term management fee is taking a big bite out of what does come in. We have yet to feel the impact of the new structural inspection and reserve requirements as well as the expected increases in master wind and flood policies. These will force increases in condo fees which will be substantial for some older complexes. The vacation rental condos are predominately cash deals so fortunately higher mortgage rates have not had much impact on them.

The prospective buyers for other types of condos and single family homes are, however, affected by those much higher mortgage rates and are facing similar uncertainty about insurance. Many have decided to call off their search and wait to see what happens. A smaller pool of buyers is not positive for prices. Those buyers who feel that they may have missed their opportunity may get a shot in the coming months and years at lower prices if they are willing to make peace with the uncertainty of overhead moving forward. 

And that is my Debbie Downer evaluation of the state of the Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral real estate market in November of 2022. Perhaps next year I will be proven wrong. I would welcome that. Wherever the prices go, Cocoa Beach remains a special place in Florida and we were reminded early this morning of one of our unique attractions when we were finally rewarded with the launch of Artemis 1 around 1:30 AM. It was a beauty as it ascended towards a bright half moon hanging over the ocean welcoming the Orion spacecraft on it's first lunar visit. We are headed back to the moon after a long break.

"Ever notice that people who have an hour to waste usually try to spend it with someone who does not?" - Bernard Meltzer