Distant Storms - Fewer Condos

This post first appeared at  larrystake.substack.com on October 1.

As I write this, hurricanes Humberto and Imelda are moving away to the northeast well offshore following the general track of their older siblings this season. Since early August there have been constant, overlapping long-period swells from passing distant storms gracing our shore. That’s made for an active late summer for Brevard surfers without the attendant stress of a possible landfall but not so great for surf fishing during the fall mullet run. The relief of watching an approaching storm start its northward turn away from us is a shared joy for all, surfer or not.

Our residential real estate market is firmly into the slower fall season. The MLS is reporting a total of 27 closed condo and townhouse units and five single family homes in the month of September. As always, that number is likely to increase slightly as tardy listing agents get around to closing their sold listings. Average time on the market for the sold condos was 119 days and not a single sold unit received their original asking price. One sale of an oceanfront unit, closed for 73% its original asking price a year ago. That was a prolonged and probably stressful reality check for the seller. Just slightly less than half of the sold units closed for cash with no mortgage.

Highest sold price was $1.235 MM for a 4th floor direct ocean corner 3 BR, 3.5 BA in a 17 year old building in south Cocoa Beach while the median sold price was $305,000.

In contradiction to the statewide trend of increasing supply, the condo and townhouse inventory in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral has continued its steady decline from a high of 405 units in late April to just 282 units for sale this morning, the first day of October. Average time on market for those 282 units is 117 days with almost a third of them already over six months without a buyer. Our slow season has traditionally lasted until the end of January when sales usually pick up again so those folks may have to wait even longer to find their buyer unless they are prepared to compete with the handful of sellers who are priced to sell. Until January we can expect more of the same slow activity barring some market-affecting macro event. Buyers, know what you’re looking for and know your target property’s fair value. Expecting a huge discount off asking price just because the market is slow is foolish. Expecting a discount because a seller is overpriced is reasonable but a low offer stands a much better chance of success if it can be justified by relevant comparable sales to support that offer. [Relevant is important as is the plural, “sales”.] Be smart whether you’re buying or selling and pay attention to the market. It is almost always right.

“Demand and supply are the opposite extremes of the beam… the price is the point of equilibrium, where the momentum of the one ceases, and that of the other begins.” – Jean-Baptiste Say