The Power of Pricing

For our first progress report of 2026 let’s dive into the details of the fifteen closed condo and townhouse sales in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral so far in the first three weeks of January. There was one off-market sale that was entered in the MLS for comp purposes so I’ll omit that one from our examination.

The fifteen closed sales averaged selling for 85% of their original asking price and were on the market for an average of 157 days. Note that I used the actual days on market rather than the lower manipulated CDOM (combined days on market) number showing on several of the closed listings. The average 85% of original asking price is not a sign of a healthy market but it does hint that more sellers are accepting the fact that their original price expectations were overly optimistic. There is another story hidden within the overall story and it stands out in strong contrast to the averages.

There were five listings that sold in less than 24 days on the market and they averaged 98% of original asking price. Price correctly and sell quickly. It seems an easy concept to understand but it was ignored by two thirds of the sellers who wound up making multiple price drops over months to finally arrive at a price that worked. Without easy access to market stats sellers have to rely on their listing agents to do the homework and advise them on competitive pricing. Knowing the neighbor sold two years ago for $XXX makes for some resistance to today’s reality even though the agent may present more recent comps that suggest that $XXX is no longer competitive. I’ve had many sellers insist on initially listing for a number higher than the comps will justify “just in case”. There have been years when that sometimes worked. We are not currently in one of those periods. Those who hope to sell need to price correctly from the beginning if they want to sell in a reasonable time.

If I eliminate the five listings that priced correctly and sold quickly, the other ten sold listings averaged 79% of original asking price and lingered on the market for an average of 229 days enduring multiple price drops until they finally reached a number the market agreed with. One stubborn seller did eight price drops over 357 days to finally sell for 59% of their original asking price. Another sat on their listing for 429 days and did seven price changes before finally selling for 82% of the original price. I would advise any prospective seller to have their listing agent do a thorough market analysis and to listen to their advice. Buyers are here now and are active. Correctly priced listings are the ones attracting those buyers. Now is the time to act for sellers who want to take advantage of our historically strongest selling season.

“This is the end of the innocence.” _Don Henley 1989

 

Do Not Be Deceived

Games are afoot in the Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral real estate market. If one looks for the time on market of the current condo and townhouse inventory of 314 units, the median appears to be 95 days. Not great but not historically awful. Peeking at the listing history of the newest listings tells a different story. About a third of all new listings within the last forty days have had their listings manipulated to reset the Cumulative Days On Market (CDOM), almost all of them with the intention/hope of deceiving buyers and their agents. I would advise all prospective buyers and their agents to search the listing history of any potential target property to get the true history of the listing. There are several listings that were cancelled around the end of the year and reentered into the MLS in January with zero CDOM and higher prices than the just-cancelled listing. Sellers and their agents believe that their negotiating strength is greater with a property that appears to be a new listing than with one that has obviously been sitting on the market for a long time. Several of the listings that have low CDOMs have, in some cases, been on the market for over a year. The true time on market is likely to influence the price of an offer so the selling parties justify their ethical fluidity with the hope of a better eventual selling price.

The number of condo listings that are being offered at less than the seller's purchase price is increasing but is greatly outnumbered by the overpriced listings whose sellers remain in denial about the reality of current market conditions and selling prices. As I mentioned in an earlier post, many who purchased between 2021 and 2024 are finding out that selling their unit and realizing a profit or even just breaking even is not possible. We continue to see lower selling prices in many of our complexes and the units that are selling are the ones that are priced in line with the current reality.

I would advise all potential buyers to research recent selling prices and listing history of any possible targets. Don’t be swayed by the fact that several similar units in the same building are all asking similar high prices. Asking prices are just that, asking. They are in many cases unrelated to the reality of the selling prices of units that have actually closed. As always, knowledge is power and in the purchase of a condo or townhouse in our market it can be worth tens of thousands of dollars. Do your homework.

“The plural of anecdote is not data.” unknown

 

Cocoa Beach SF Home Sales - 2025

The market for single family homes in 2025 was distinctly different from the condo market. It was a busy year for this market segment with a total of 113 homes sold, 98 of them in Cocoa Beach. Thirty four homes sold for at least a million dollars with a highest price paid of $2.58 MM for a 4920 square foot direct ocean home south of downtown Cocoa Beach. Highest price paid for a non-waterfront house was $1.625 MM for a beautiful, brand new 4/5 a half block from the ocean in south Cocoa Beach. Median price paid was $753,000 with a low of $325,000 for a cute but tiny 2/1 in Cape Canaveral four blocks from the beach.

Almost half, 49, of the homes sold for cash and median time on market was 61 days. We entered 2026 with just over sixty houses for sale in a range between $365,000 and $3.5 MM. Median time on the market for the 63 listings active this morning is 87 days. There doesn’t seem to be as many headwinds for our SF home market as the condo market which continues to struggle. Many condo purchases are discretionary being bought as second homes or investments and that market is reactionary to consumer sentiment and the macro economic landscape. The majority of SF home buyers are buying for residence and less likely to have the luxury of postponing their purchase while waiting for more favorable economic conditions. I expect sales of homes in 2026 to follow the healthy trend established in 2025 with a similar sales rate and stable pricing.

The condo market is facing a much different year and I expect slower sales and lower prices for that market in 2026. I’m not sure what it would take to reinvigorate prospective condo buyers considering the already high and rising condo fees other than drastically lower prices. How much lower remains a mystery as the bulk of sellers so far have been unwilling (or unable if they bought in the last few years) to accept that asking prices must compensate higher holding costs if they hope to sell. The reckoning looms.

On that note, beware predictions based on countywide trends. Many real estate sites and salespeople will spin positive forecasts using statistics from Brevard County as a whole while conveniently not mentioning the fact that some market segments behave counter to the whole, our beach condo market being Exhibit A. Treat with suspicion any claim that rhymes with “now is a great time to buy” especially if it’s coming from someone who will profit from your purchase.

I hope the half dozen or so home buyers who closed on their new homes in the long-stalled development in south Cocoa Beach four and five years ago will finally get a chance to move into their new homes this year. I’m not optimistic that will happen. There has been little progress on the homes under construction over the last few years and none have been completed. Have those buyers who closed five years ago been paying property taxes on their unfinished homes? Mortgage payments? What’s going on? Anyone? I would love to know the whole story of what’s going on there.

“There’s a distinct difference in rationalizing and being rational.” unknown 

Condo Wrap 2025

The numbers are in and it’s official. With a total of 471 condo and townhouse units sold, 2025 was the slowest year for condo sales in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral since 2009 when 420 units changed hands. Just four years ago in 2021, 863 units were sold. Inventory during 2025 continued its three year rapid expansion from the low in 2022 and climbed to the highest supply we’ve seen in twelve years. In 2021 and 2022 average inventory ranged between 45 and 55 units and many complexes saw record prices paid. Several units purchased during that time have since been resold at a loss, at least one at less than half the price paid in 2022. Some others who bought then have been trying unsuccessfully to sell at prices substantially below their purchase price. This year we averaged around 300 units for sale at any one time with a brief blip up to just over 400 in April. We are beginning 2026 with just over 300 units for sale at prices between $59,000 and $1,490,000 with a median asking price of $347,000.

Thanks to 21 closings at the brand new luxury building, The Surf, in downtown Cocoa Beach, we had 29 condo sales of a million dollars or more with a penthouse unit at The Surf setting the 2025 record for highest priced condo sale at $3.15 MM. Most of these units were reserved pre-construction between 2020 and 2022 when our existing inventory bottomed. I suspect the number of sales and prices paid would have been very different had those units not been offered until 2025. There are only five units offered this morning in our two cities for over a million.

The median price paid in 2025 was $352,500. Median time on market was 84 days. We saw units at some complexes selling at prices radically lower than two and three years ago. Canaveral Towers, for example, saw average selling prices in 2025 from 25% to 30% below the average prices paid in 2021 to 2023. There were similar value drops at many other large complexes like The Diplomat in Cocoa Beach. Some other smaller complexes where there were no sales during the mania years like Boardwalk in downtown Cocoa Beach appear to have been unaffected with prices paid this year similar to prices paid in 2022 when the last unit was sold. Many others had no sales during the year and have no way of knowing what price the current market might be willing to deliver.

Uncertainty seems to be the overriding force in our condo market as we enter the new year. We can only speculate about what our spring “busy” season will bring but many seller’s fingers are crossed hoping that the trend that persisted through 2025 will reverse. I am seeing nothing yet to support that hope.

Condo fees are at an all-time high having increased rapidly over the last two years. Over 20% of current listings have a monthly fee of $900 a month or higher with a median for the total condo inventory of $700 a month. The median monthly fee of the sold units in 2022 was $475 with only five of them over $900. Higher fees are a large part of the issues fueling the slowdown. Will buyers eventually make peace with high fees? Are the absent buyers waiting on the sidelines for better prices or have they given up on purchasing a beach condo altogether because of higher expenses and general uncertainty? We may never know. It should be an interesting year.

On a positive note, Port Canaveral resumed its position as the world’s busiest cruise port serving 8.5 million passengers in 2025. It is now the home port of eighteen ships among seven major cruise lines. Unfortunately, those passengers don’t appear to be buying condos.

I’ll follow with another report in a few days with a rundown of the single-family home market which had an entirely different 2025 than did the condo market. Cheers and Happy New Year.

“Keep moving. It’s hard for old age to hit a moving target.” _Joan Rivers

The Home Stretch

The residential real estate market in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral is coasting in slow motion towards year end. Twenty two condo units and two single family homes have closed so far in the first half of December continuing the slowdown in sales that began in 2022. In 2021, the busiest year on record, 863 condo units closed. We are on track to sell about half that number this year, the lowest number of condos sold since 2009. Note that our numbers this year were helped by the closings of 21 new units at The Surf condo downtown that were contracted years ago.

The pace of sales has been cut in half in just four years while at the same time inventory has expanded by five times. Inventory has vacillated at around 300 units most of the year and we’re ending the year with virtually the same number of properties for sale as we began. The median time on market for the current inventory is around 100 days. Median condo fee across all price ranges is $700 monthly with about a quarter of listings at $900 or higher per month. Higher fees, taxes and insurance are straining the math that buyers use to justify purchasing a beach condo.

December 31 is the final deadline (twice extended) for all affected condo associations to be in compliance with inspections and structural reserves. Those who used the extensions to indulge their procrastination have until New Year’s Day to begin funding the new reserves. With everyone’s fees finally including that funding, we will enter the spring 2026 season with a fairly level playing field. Rapidly escalating fees have been the turd in the punchbowl of the condo market for four years and that factor is front and center now as we head into the new year with the majority of associations in compliance. The condo market of 2026 in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral is likely to be difficult for all participants. Buyers will have to come to terms with the the math of higher expenses and sellers will be forced to compete with their sharpest tool, asking price. I expect slower sales and lower prices for condos in 2026. It took longer than I expected for the condo legislation to noticeably affect the market but the wait is over and the condo reckoning is upon us. Best of luck to all participants. Those who are aware of and adapt to the new reality are those who will be successful in this market.

“Market forces have a way of cutting to the chase rather quickly.” _J.B. Pritzker 

We Have a Situation

Sunrise Thanksgiving morning in south Cocoa Beach

Our condo market is in trouble. The trouble started with Covid but is just now becoming apparent. The number of units sold in 2021 was the highest since I began keeping records in 2004. There were 863 closed condo sales in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral that year. Prices had not yet returned to 2005-2006 levels for most units but there was a strong uptick in selling prices as demand climbed following the Covid lockdowns of 2020. Inventory had been in a broad decline since 2006 and bottomed out in 2022 adding fuel to the demand/supply imbalance. In April of 2022 there were less than 40 total units for sale in our two cities and buyers exceeded sellers by a large margin. Most new listings sold within days. Multiple offers were common and the legislation in response to the collapse of Champlain Towers South in June 2021 had not yet been signed into law.

Following the exuberance of 2021 and 2022, inventory began rapidly climbing at the same time prices began leveling out. The legislation requiring condos to establish a fully-funded structural reserve fund was signed into law in June 2023 with a deadline for compliance of December 31, 2024. As a result condo fees exploded as condo associations were forced to increase them in order to fund the new reserves and in some cases levy special assessments to repair existing structural issues. These fee increases didn’t happen overnight and in the meantime enthusiastic buyers continued to buy condos.

2025 sales shown through late November

By December 2024 the inventory of condo units had climbed to 298 units and most condos had raised fees and demand had cooled. Many sellers were clinging to expectations of the previous years’ selling prices but buyers were not sharing those expectations. Instead of $550 a month fees and a 3% mortgage like a few years earlier, a buyer was now looking at over $1000 a month fees and a 7% mortgage for the same unit. Justifying a beach condo was no longer possible for many buyers and they suspended their search. Sellers, on the other hand, clung to their visions of 2022 and refused to accept that the market was changing. Many of those sellers are still on the market although some are beginning to realize that the prices of recent years are not realistic in this market.

There are 30 units for sale right now asking less than the sellers paid in 2021, 2022 or 2023. There are another five asking within 2% of their purchase price and nine units who have curbed their enthusiasm with price drops between 23% and 40%. The most extreme example at the moment is a unit at 60% of the original asking price. This seller was asking $2.1 MM in 2024 and is now hoping to get $1.275 MM. The reality checks are not confined to the upper price range with listings like a unit in a riverfront complex that was asking $240,000 a year ago now down to $160,000.

Inventory has inched back up to 313 total units for sale this morning with a median time on market of 93 days, 81 of those units for sale over six months. Everyone is hoping for a strong selling season in the spring but the friction for buyers isn’t going to disappear with the arrival of the snowbirds. Higher fees, insurance and mortgage rates will persist. Of the units that have closed so far this month, the majority sold for large discounts to the original asking price and four of them sold for a loss. One unit stands out for seller optimism, a bad bet and, ultimately, capitulation. First listed three and a half years ago for $1,299,000, the seller decided to rent for a year after failing to sell, probably hoping for a better market a year later. After a year and $36,000 of rent collected they relisted and found a buyer for $575,000. Anyone hoping to sell needs to accept the reality of this changed market and think hard before making a bet like renting for a year in hopes of a better future market or clinging to yesterday’s price. Unless we have the busiest December of the last twenty years, this year’s total condo sales will continue our five year trend of declining number of units sold.

I hope everyone had a happy, stress-free Thanksgiving. For those who are here this weekend the Cocoa Beach Art Show kicks off tonight with a street party. Live music on the main stage on Minutemen Cswy. begins at 5:30 with FlowMotion followed by the always-outstanding FUNPIPE at 8:30. Hope to see y’all there. Congrats to the handful of people who won tickets to see Benson Boone at the Rocket Garden at the Space Center Saturday night. Enjoy the backflips.

“Sometimes I’m scared of being Ozzie Osbourne but it could have been worse. I could have been Sting.” _Ozzie Osbourne

Houses vs Condos

The moonrises over the ocean this week have been spectacular.

I mentioned in the last post that different market segments can behave very differently at the same time and used the Cocoa Beach single-family market and condo market as examples. Let’s dive into the details and see just how differently they are performing.

We typically have about five to six times the number of condos for sale at any one moment as houses. This morning there are 64 MLS-listed homes for sale in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral and 299 condo units. During the month of October, 15 homes and 34 condo units closed. That means that we have about a 17 week supply of homes versus around 35 weeks for condos.

Median time on market for the sold homes in October was 55 days. For condos it was 151 days. As I mentioned in the Market Snapshot post, time on market is heavily manipulated so the real time to sell is longer than the MLS shows. More than a quarter of the sold properties, both homes and condos, took longer to sell than shown in the MLS but the fact that most condos are taking about three times as long to sell as homes is accurate.

Median selling price for homes was $1,012,000 and $335,000 for condos. Cash buyers dominated the market with two thirds of condo buyers and 60% of single-family home purchasers paying cash. That trend is likely to continue. There do not seem to be any reasons to expect market conditions to change until after New Years when we typically see an uptick in new listings and sales activity in both market segments. Until then we can expect more of the same absent some external macro event. Good luck to all participants. Knowing what’s going on in your market segment will go a long way towards success whether buying or selling.

Reminder to sellers to check your MLS listings for accuracy and completeness. The 15 condo listings on our MLS today that have incorrect or missing condo names may not be included in auto-search emails for buyers who are looking for a unit in a specific condo. If there are prospective buyers with an auto-search set up for Sandcastles, they are not going to get an email about a new listing there if the listing agent’s assistant spelled the name as Sand Castles.

Anyone willing to venture a guess on when/if the development of new houses on the site of Joyce’s Trailer Park in south Cocoa Beach will have its first completed structure? The MLS tells me that ten of them closed, all for cash, at prices between $970,000 and $1,495,000, between 2019 and 2022. Some of these closings happened before the slabs had even been poured and now they have been sitting at various stages of completion for years with sporadic activity and not a single one yet completed. I would love to hear from anyone with any insight into what happened or is happening there.

“A sane person to an insane society must appear insane.” _Kurt Vonnegut 

Beware the Market Snapshot

Typical crowded beach in south Cocoa Beach last week

I receive quite a few marketing direct mail and email blasts from real estate agents, mortgage brokers, title companies and such that include market statistics in their sales pitches. Market statistics are provided by most local Realtor associations to their members for use in marketing. They are most commonly presented (in my experience) as a market wide snapshot demonstrating the health and direction of the local market. All good and I imagine this might be meaningful in some concentrated, homogenous markets but in our 72 mile long county with many distinct and separated cities and communities an overall “market snapshot” is worse than meaningless. It’s misleading. The market viewed as a whole may suggest a different reality than the specific market niche one may be selling or hoping to buy in. Those using these stats rarely mention this. It’s marketing after all. The temperature of the Palm Bay single family home market has very little to do with the health of the beachside condo market. In fact, the one and two story, non-waterfront beachside condo market has little in common with the oceanfront condo market just as the Cocoa Beach single-family home market often moves counter to our condo market. Beware the market snapshot.

Condo inventory in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral has increased slightly with 298 total units for sale as of this morning. The median time on market shows as 112 days but that is misleading because of the way that the MLS calculates combined days on market. The listings that gave up on selling last year and rented for a few months hoping for a market improvement can come back on the market now as a brand new listing with zero combined days on market. Same holds true for a listing with a clever listing agent who cancels and relists to get a new MLS number. There are many of both types of these listings in the current inventory making the time on market appear less than it really is.

A total of 37 units have accepted a contract so far in October. The median time on market indicated by the MLS was 131 days but a look at the relisted units among them like those mentioned above reveal the actual time to sell to be much longer.

Reality is starting to set in for many sellers with overly optimistic expectations. Among the 37 units contracted so far in October a few stand out for their extreme price reductions that produced results.

• Oceanfront unit - original asking price $650,000. Asking when buyer found, $499,000.

• Oceanfront unit - original asking price $439,900. Asking when buyer found, $349,000.

• Oceanfront unit - original asking price $1.1 MM. Closed for $880,000.

• Riverfront unit - original asking price $595,000. Asking when buyer found, $410,000.

• Oceanfront unit - original asking price $700,000. Asking when buyer found, $499,900.

• Oceanfront unit - original asking price $549,000. Asking when buyer found, $399,900.

• Riverfront unit - original asking price $364,900. Asking when buyer found, $284,500.

• Oceanfront unit - original asking price $439,900. Asking when buyer found, $349,000.

• Riverfront unit - original asking price $470,000. Closed for $311,000.

And the most extreme of the reality checks this month; a seller of an oceanfront unit who was originally asking $1.3 MM with no luck even after several large price drops over the course of two years decided last year to let the listing expire and rent the unit. They came back on the market this month at an asking price of $599,000 and found a buyer quickly. A reality check of over $700,000 and a cautionary tale for those who may be thinking of pulling their listing to wait for a more favorable market. Are you feeling lucky?

Some of the 37 units sold for or will close for less than the seller paid for the unit. In addition to these I’m also starting to see new listings of units that were purchased in the last three years or so that are back on the market with a starting price of less than the price previously paid. This may have more to do with substantially increased condo fees over the last three years than to overall market sentiment but it’s certainly worth paying attention to as it’s not something we’re used to. Markets don’t correct overnight but they usually give hints. Whether this is a hint or a temporary aberration remains to be seen. I’ll continue to pay attention.

“Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.” ___Warren Buffet