Sunday, July 24, 2022

Inventory Tsunami

Spotted this gopher tortoise cruising along the dune line at Cape Winds a few years ago. The variety of wildlife that lives in the narrow strip of dune between the beach and the buildings is surprising. We have a healthy population of swamp rabbits, black racers, corn snakes, tortoises, possums, racoons and the occasional bobcat and coyote squeaking out a life in that narrow strip.

Residential inventory is exploding in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. The number of existing condos for sale is up 50% since mid-May while the number of single-family homes on offer has more than doubled during the same period. As recently as April there were only 43 condo units and 12 single family homes for sale. The numbers this morning are 101 MLS-listed, existing condo units and 27 single family homes.

Thirty units have closed in the two cities since July 1 at prices between $2 MM and $125,000. Another 46 have accepted an offer since the month began. I would expect the inventory to continue growing as sales activity typically begins to slow as we approach the start of the new school year. Sellers are still pricing optimistically but I am seeing more price reductions as some of them respond to the reality check of an apathetic market. Over 40% of the existing listings have reduced their original asking price. Just a few months ago most new listings were enjoying multiple offers with many selling over asking price. Of the thirty closed units so far this month nineteen of the thirty sold for less than asking price. Sellers, take note; the market is different than it was two months ago and the new reality is more competition, fewer buyers and tighter conditions for condo loans. With the busy months of hurricane season fast approaching, the time to play chicken with the market is behind us. Anyone hoping to sell a residential property here would be well-advised to accept the market changes and make a plan to sell that works with the new reality. The strategy that worked well earlier this year when there was less inventory, lower interest rates and a less-stringent condo mortgage questionnaire is not the best plan moving forward. 

Buyers, enjoy your new status in the buy and sell dynamic. Those planning to get a mortgage need to understand what will make a condo complex fail the new mortgage condo questionnaire before they offer on a unit. If the complex is older with obvious deferred maintenance or it is primarily vacation rental units, a mortgage may be impossible. An experienced buyer's agent will have a good idea which ones those are.

"Bad artists always admire each other's work..."--Oscar Wilde