Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Non-repeating history

I'm back after getting the boat to Abaco from Florida. Photo above from yesterday morning at the home mooring off Lubbers Quarters with Elbow Cay in the background. This 42' Lagoon Hybrid sailing cat is now available for charter, either bare boat or captained in the crystal clear waters of Abaco from CruiseAbaco.com

Our little real estate market has been on fire this normally slow time of year. After setting a four-year record for closed sales in the month of September, October followed suit with another four-year record. [EDIT] Due to a glitch in the MLS, the numbers I reported yesterday were not accurate. The charts are now corrected. October was unseasonably strong but not our biggest month of the year for closed condo sales as I reported yesterday. It was, however, the busiest October since 2005. The bulk of the activity, as has been true all year, was concentrated in the sub-$300,000 range and short sales and foreclosures accounted for just less than a quarter of all closed sales. November looks to continue the trend with both barrels loaded with pending sales. During the last 13 days, 36 condos and townhomes have gone under contract in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral as reported on the MLS.

Foreign buyers taking advantage of the weak US dollar are part of the recent activity. Without making any predictions, the evidence suggests that our market is stabilizing. Even as some prices drift lower, some condo complexes have seen closed sales notch upward. Will prices resume the downward slide after a false recovery? No one knows but with prices in many cases well below 50% of the peak, buyers are stepping in. Markets work on supply and demand and demand is at a four year high right now. First chart below is 2008 and 2009 only.

Notice in the four year chart below that October 2009 has the highest number of sales of any October in the last three years. A trend with legs? We'll see. I'm encouraged.

"History is more or less bunk. It's tradition. We don't want tradition. We want to live in the present and the only history that is worth a tinker's damn is the history we make today."
______________Henry Ford