Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Math quiz

Good morning, Ukraine.

Remember those questions in the math section of the SAT or similar tests, the ones that went something like; Complete this sequence; 1, 2, ?, ? I'd like to submit a similar question to you. What is the next number in this sequence; 685, 648, 658, 595, 495, ?

Here's another sequence completed; 519, 529, 515, 500, 440, 390, 370, and the final number, 340.

Those sequences are actual histories of asking prices (in thousands) of individual condos, the last example taken all the way to the eventual selling price this month of $340,000. In my example, the sequence could be correctly completed in two ways, either 1, 2, 3, 4, a linear progression or as 1, 2, 4, 8 an exponential progression which these listing histories more closely resemble. My question would probably be more illustrative phrased as "what picture does this sequence of numbers paint?" The picture it paints for me is a hopeful but foolish seller being dragged kicking and screaming to reality. That first sequence beginning with 685 is an as-yet-unsold 2 year-old luxury penthouse condo on the river. That last drop yesterday of a full $100,000 tells me that reality is rapidly approaching. For other sellers playing this foolish game of chasing the market down, the final number in the sequence may turn out to be zero if they run out of cash while hoping for the white knight. Best of luck to those of you trying to sell. When you get it priced right, you'll probably be hearing from me.

MLS inventory March 27, 2008 Cocoa Beach & Cape Canaveral

Condominiums_______867 - 50 under $100,000
over $500,000________126 - only 4 sold since New Year's Day
Single family homes___139
over $500,000_________53

It's been 4 weeks today since I began geographic tracking of this blog's readers. We have had visitors from an amazing 48 states and 42 countries outside the United States. The shot at the top shows the location of the visitors from Europe in the last 4 weeks. Bigger dot means more readers. If you're one of those and have never emailed me, I'd love to hear from you and know what you get out of this blog or, even better, what you'd like to see. Thanks for tuning in.

Believe what you want, but don't believe it around here.
- John Candy