Tuesday, January 23, 2018

No, You Haven't Been Hacked

No, your computer problems weren't caused by Russian hackers and the listing agent did not lie about another offer to trick you into paying more with a bogus call for best and highest. With the critically low inventory it is safe to expect any desirable property priced within the ballpark of fair value to receive multiple offers. It is also safe to assume that another buyer faced with the same tiny inventory might consider paying over what you think is fair current value. What you should consider paying is up to you. Whether negotiating as the only buyer or making your best and highest in a multiple offer situation, it is a worthwhile exercise to estimate what the cost of buying later might be.

Example: A nice unit at Harbor Isles in Cocoa Beach is listed for $300,000. Comps suggest that $280 to $295 is probably in the range of fair current value. The unit satisfies all my criteria. It is the only unit in Cocoa Beach currently for sale that does satisfy my criteria. I prepare an offer and am told by the listing agent that there is another offer and both buyers' agents are asked to bring their best and highest offer. I had already decided that I would be willing to go as high as $295,000 to get this unit. Based on that, I submit my best and highest offer of $295,000 only to miss out to the other buyer who offered $300,000. I continue looking for another suitable unit but with the very skinny inventory am unable to find something that appeals to me. Finally, months later, an almost identical unit is listed in the adjacent building asking $320,000. We now have the previous unit as the best comp at $300,000.

Takeaway for prospective buyers: Make an effort to know the range of fair value for the properties you're interested in and be realistic with the offers you make knowing that the low inventory is always looming. Holding out for a "deal" may leave your search open-ended.

Three weeks into the new year and the 2018 snowbird season is throttling up with a vengeance. Probably due in part to the fact that everything north of the Florida line has been frozen tundra since December. New listing activity has been strong with 80 new units listed this month so far. Sales activity has been brisk  as well with 48 units going under contract since January 1, seventeen of those just listed since New Years Day. That leaves us with a total of 194 existing condo and townhouse units available in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral this morning. How is our bread and butter oceanfront inventory? Looking for a direct ocean unit with at least two bedrooms and two baths asking less than $400,000? There are six. Don't want ground floor? Now there are four. Must have a garage? We have a grand total of three units. It'll be a short day.

I'm happy to help those who are hoping to purchase in our area. If you'd like the benefit of my experience and knowledge of this market, shoot me an email or call. I'll do my best to help you find the perfect beach place at the best possible price.

"The direction of escape is toward freedom. So what is ‘escapism’ an accusation of?" ________Ursula Le Guin

Wednesday, January 03, 2018

That's a Wrap - 2017

2017 was another stellar year for the Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral real estate market. We were looking to come up short of last year but managed to close just enough sales in the final days of the year to exceed 2016's number. There were a total of 696 condo and townhouse units and 159 single family homes closed in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral according to the Cocoa Beach MLS. That combined total exceeded last year's number by a single property. The number of condo sales was the second highest since 2005.

[update Jan. 8] Three tardy listing agents have gotten around to closing additional December sales bringing the year's total of condo sales to 699.

Prices continued to drift higher through the year, not a surprise considering the persistent low inventory and strong demand. I see no evidence to suggest that that trend will change barring some black swan macro event. We enter the new year with the lowest condo inventory in recorded history with just 173 total existing condo and townhouse units offered for sale on the MLS, less than a three month supply at 2017's sales rate. If you're looking, be flexible and don't expect anyone to sell their unit to you for last year's price. Today's fair value will be last year's attractive price in due time.

Good news, bad news. Good news: Cocoa Beach City Hall reopened today and 2018 parking stickers are available. The 2017 stickers are good through the end of this month. Bad news: The Cocoa Beach city pool is closed due to this unseasonably cold weather. It was snowing in north Florida a few hours ago. We are expected to hit mid 30s tonight and tomorrow night but then back into more normal January weather, daytime temps in the 70s, next week.

The first launch ever of a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket is scheduled for this month. This beast has a orbital delivery capacity of 119,000 pounds, twice that of the Delta IV heavy. The three booster configuration has 27 Merlin rocket engines. Should be quite a spectacular launch topped off with simultaneous landings of the side boosters back at the Cape and minutes later landing of the main on the spaceport drone ship, Of Course I Still Love You, offshore. There is a higher than usual chance of failure in a first-time launch of any rocket vehicle. Don't be fooled by the multiple sonic booms as the rockets return after separation. This is the configuration that will likely be used in upcoming Mars missions.

I hope everyone's new year is off to a good start. See y'all around town.

"A president's hardest task is not to do what is right, but to know what is right." __Lyndon B. Johnson