Are Condo Prices Rising or Dropping?

Last week's Vulcan rocket launch as seen from my office.

The answer to the title question is both. It seems that overall prices are declining with some complexes recording significant declines [see my last sold example below], but we have occasionally seen sales closing at prices that are out of step with the overall market. I was reminded of this today when I was reviewing recent condo sales and noticed the closings of two similar oceanfront Cocoa Beach 1/1 condo units on the same day, one for $210,000 and the other for $350,000. Both were south side units, the more expensive one 2nd floor and both had assigned open parking and were within 35 square feet of the same size. The higher priced unit was more nicely remodeled but the lower-priced unit was in a building that allows weekly rentals so potential for higher income is much greater with the cheaper one. The buildings, unit sizes, amenities and views were essentially the same and a buyer decided that the better remodeling job in one of them was worth $140,000 more than the other.

Buyers are still sorting out how to deal with the new requirements for signed Buyer Brokerage Agreements. Their reactions to this have been varied and have slowed or stopped more than a few searches. I've heard several say that they would not be signing any agreements and would just contact listing agents directly in hopes of not being stuck with owing an agent a commission at closing. This on top of the uncertainty of future condo fees related to the new reserve requirements just adds more friction for sellers during this historically slowest time of the year. Toss a couple of hurricanes into the mix and selling a Florida condo in late 2024 becomes an unpredictable challenge.

Despite the hurdles, sales are closing. A total of 46 condo units have closed since September 1 with 58% of those closing for cash and a median time on market of 88 days. Median selling price was $387,000 with a median condo fee of $630 per month right in line with the median fees of the remaining inventory of 271 units.

Sales of note included a retro penthouse unit with panoramic Banana River views at Rock Pointe in Cocoa Beach that closed for $910,000. This 37 year old unit has 3500 square feet, 3 bedrooms, 4 baths and two garages and has a wrap balcony at the tip of a peninsula overlooking the river. 

A tastefully remodeled 28 year old, 6th floor direct ocean Majestic Seas of Cocoa Beach with 1924 square feet, 4 bedrooms and 2 baths closed for $849,000 after 25 days on the market.

A beautifully remodeled 3rd floor direct ocean end unit 3/2 Shorewood in Cape Canaveral with 1922 square feet, also 28 years old, sold for $740,000.

A nicely remodeled top (4th) floor, direct Banana River, Banana Bay of Cocoa Beach end unit 3/2 with 2018 square feet sold for $540,000 in 3 days.

An upgraded 2050 sq. ft. 2nd floor, direct wide-open Banana River 3/2 River Bend in south Cocoa Beach closed for $514,000. 

A 4th floor south ocean view Canaveral Towers furnished 2/2 closed for $485,000, confirming a low for this complex as the second unit to close for this price. This unit was purchased for $550,000 in 2023 when multiple units closed in the mid to low $500s. That price range seemed like a deal at the time after multiple identical floor plan units closed in the building in 2022 in the $700s with one closing for $839,900. Apparently mid $500s was not the bottom for this cycle there.

Now that we have a named storm in the "box" which includes the entire Gulf of Mexico, insurers have stopped binding new policies which will effectively torpedo most closings scheduled for this coming week. Barring another newly named system there's a chance that some closings may happen next Friday once Milton is far away in the north Atlantic.

Everyone should be gathering up any unsecured or unanchored items in the yard and furniture off balconies in preparation for the winds of this approaching storm. The winds will probably arrive Tuesday ahead of the storm which looks to pass over quickly on Wednesday. It will be brief but wind is predicted to approach hurricane levels for a few hours. Anything that can be blown around can become a deadly projectile. Do yourself and your neighbors a favor and try to reduce the potential projectiles by putting loose items inside or in a garage. That definitely includes trash cans. Stay safe y'all.

Conversation with an AI;

"Ignorance is bliss, hey?" 

"I am unable to experience bliss but I am able to model the benefits of ignorance."

Denial or Optimism?

This is a timeline of a condo sale that is typical of many current listings. The seller hit the market last summer at a price that seemed high but within the ballpark considering similar sales months earlier. The unit was first listed last July which was about the time we were starting to see some areas of softening in our condo market. Asking price started at $575,000 but was dropped to $549,000 just three weeks in and cancelled a week later. Three months later, in November, it came back on the MLS asking $545,000 and was dropped to $535,000 two weeks later. On New Years Day it was dropped to $519,900 and again to $499,900 three weeks later. One month later another small drop to $495,000 and two weeks later to $485,000 and $475,000 two weeks after that before being cancelled in early May. It came back on the market in mid-June at $474,900 and dropped a week later to $449,900 where it sat until mid-August when it finally got a contract after being on and off the market for slightly over a year. We won't know the actual contract price until it closes. Sticking with a higher-than-market-value asking price "just in case" despite descending prices of comparable sales is a costly strategy as this seller found out. 

A timeline of multiple price drops is not uncommon. Almost half (47%) of all condo listings in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral have been for sale for over 100 days and, of those 126 listings, 90 have had price changes. Much of the inventory is overpriced and will need price adjustments if the sellers hope to attract a buyer. Condo buyers, who may find a promising looking listing after wading through a predominantly overpriced inventory, are then faced with rising condo fees, higher down payment requirements and increasingly expensive insurance, the very things fueling the declining prices.

What could this seller have gotten for this unit last year had their price been better earlier? It's anyone's guess but the fact that the condo market was changing and softening was obvious to anyone who was paying attention. Paying close attention to closing prices and asking prices of other units that were attracting buyers might have hinted to this seller that their price was the problem but they either didn't bother to know or denied what they saw. Buyers and sellers alike will benefit from knowing the recently sold prices of comparable properties. Selling prices are retreating and asking prices for the majority of active listings aren't in line with selling prices. What any unit sold for in 2023 is probably not a good indication of what that unit might sell for now. Homework pays off, people.

PSA for current condo sellers. Please check your MLS listings to make sure your condo name is correctly entered into the MLS. There are eleven current condo listings with incorrect or missing condo names. This means that all prospective buyers who have saved searches with your condo name included have not gotten an alert that your unit is for sale. I was reminded of this last week when I was checking my saved search of all short-term rental oceanfront condos in our market. I was aware of a new listing but it wasn't included in my results. I checked and, sure enough, the condo name, in this case, was misspelled excluding it from search results. Several of the other offenders appear to be agents unfamiliar with our MLS who don't know how to plug in the correct condo name. This ain't rocket dentistry level complexity but then again the real estate licensing process does not screen for ability or aptitude for learning and sometimes rewards incompetence with sheer blind luck. Don't be a victim of your agent's mistakes and oversight and proofread your listing for errors. 

How about accuracy of your condo fees? There are a few condo listings with grossly misstated condo fees which will ultimately threaten an executed contract when the truth becomes known before closing. Don't expect your buyer to be cool with $1100 a month condo fees when he's expecting $650 as advertised in the MLS at the time he wrote his offer.

"However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results." _Winston Churchill

Unintended Consequences

After producing a bumper crop earlier this summer, my Thai chilis have pushed out a new set of leaves and blooms and are well into the second crop of this year's season.

Some of the unintended consequences of the new rules have shown themselves already. How about the person who's been talking to a neighbor about buying their condo whenever they're ready to sell but who goes to look at a different investment property nearby. The agent who shows them the investment property has them sign a buyer broker agreement for six months and leaves the property address/description blank since they expect to be looking at various types of investment properties in the coming weeks. One day after signing the agreement the neighbor calls and says he's ready to sell the condo. There is now a contract in place that obligates the buyer to pay the agent that showed them the other property even though they aren't and won't be involved in the neighbor's sale at all.      

Scenario 2: Buyer is looking to upsize from the condo they currently own. They meet with an agent and sign a BBA for one month and begin looking at units. Shortly after beginning their search, a bigger unit in their complex that is perfect for them goes under contract and they have an opportunity to exercise their first right of refusal and take over the contract for that unit. Just like the other example, these people are now obligated to pay the agent with whom they were looking at other buildings even though the agent is not and won't be involved in the first right purchase.

In both these scenarios even though the buyers are contractually obligated to pay the agent per the letter of the agreement, if I was the agent, I would not expect to be paid nor would I accept payment. Unfortunately, not all agents would feel that way. These scenarios should serve to encourage buyers to select their buyer's agent with care. Being able to trust your agent is probably going to be more important than which agent will agree to the lowest pay. If I didn't feel like I could trust an agent for whatever reason, I would not be inclined to sign an exclusivity agreement with them. The new agreements were drafted for Realtors and they are heavily slanted in the Realtors' favor. Before signing I would spend enough time talking to a prospective buyer's agent to get a feel for how fair I could expect them to be and whether I feel like I can trust them to look out for my best interest. I'm willing to pay the agent that passes that test more than the guy who can't pass the gut check of a short conversation. Be smart, y'all, and exercise caution when price shopping for a buyer's agent. They are not created equally nor will they represent you equally well. Any agent who presents a BBA asking for a percentage plus an extra dollar amount for some random "fee" has just failed the gut check.

It's been two weeks since the new rules went into effect and I'm seeing lots of listings marked as "No" seller concessions. I wonder if the listing agents are charging more for the listing side commission and advising sellers that they don't have to offer a buyer's broker anything. Agreeing to pay 4% to a listing broker and zero to buyer's broker seems like a deal compared to the pre-August 17 range of 5% to 6% split between selling and listing brokers. However, when every offer arrives with a request for a 2 to 3% concession to cover the buyer's broker's fee then the 4% turns out to be not so great a deal. One other thing I'm noticing is that these "no seller concession" listings aren't priced any lower than those who are offering concessions. 

Sellers don't be deceived by larcenous listing agents trying to profit from the new rules and the public's misunderstanding of the same. Choosing to advertise that you aren't willing to offer a concession is adding unnecessary friction to the selling process. Better to leave the seller concession field in the MLS blank rather than chase away buyers who are obligated to pay their agent and who take your "No seller concession" at face value.

“Sufficiently advanced ignorance is indistinguishable from malice.” _unknown

Summer of Love, 55 Years Later

Tracks of hatchling turtles who scrambled for the ocean for their first swim after hatching one night this week in south Cocoa Beach.

I could never have imagined during the summer of love, that 55 years in the future, the same August weekend as Woodstock, I'd be talking about being required to have a signed compensation agreement with a buyer before I am allowed to show them a house, yet here we are. We can walk into a store in some states and buy a joint but we can't show a house to a buyer without said agreement. Progress does not move in a linear or even sensical fashion. Today, August 17, 2024, is D-Day for implementation of the new rules relating to the National Association of Realtors settlement. It is already, shall we say, interesting.

The inventory of properties for sale in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral has been shrinking since peaking in May. There are about 13% fewer properties for sale this Woodstock weekend than there were three months ago. There are currently 268 condo and townhome units for sale on the MLS and 47 single-family homes. Median asking price for the condos is $394,000 and for the single family homes, $962,000. Median time on market for condos currently listed is 94 days and for SF homes, 83 days. Median condo fee for the listed units is $650 monthly. Of the 240 condo listings older than two weeks, 158 have dropped the price at least once and there are six listings that have been optimistically listed for over a year without a price drop. Only 22 units have gone under contract so far in August.

There were a total of 50 closed condo and townhome units in the two cities in July with a median selling price of $390,000 and a median time on market of 43 days with a median condo fee of $600 monthly. Contrast that 43 days on market with the median of 94 for the remaining inventory and it's obvious that properly-priced new listings are stealing the bulk of the buyers from the older listings with overly optimistic sellers who are clinging to prices that the market is rejecting. Highest selling price was $975,000 for a 2419 square foot, 7th floor direct ocean unit at The Constellation in south Cocoa Beach. Close behind was a 9th floor corner, direct ocean Stonewood downtown Cocoa Beach with 2170 square feet that closed for $950,000.

In July there were seven single family homes closed with a median selling price of $807,000 and a median time on market of 95 days. Only one home sold for more than $815,000.

From this point forward, no buyer's broker compensation is displayed in the MLS but there is a new Y/N field for "seller concessions". On this morning's hotsheet I noticed four listings that are advertised as "No" seller concessions. That means that buyers of these listings will either have to pay their buyer's broker out of pocket or their offers to the sellers will have to include a request for a concession to cover some or all of the fee they agreed to pay their agent. The sellers who are advertising 'No" concessions can be assumed to be disinclined to agree to one. Buyer's agents are about to become seen as an impediment to a sale for the listings that are unwilling to offer a concession. I can easily see scenarios where a seller counters an offer accepting the price and terms but rejecting the concession and, by doing so, painting the buyer's broker's fee as the sole barrier to a sale. I knew this was going to be interesting but I didn't count on seeing many "no seller concession" listings so soon. I welcome your stories which are sure to follow. My email is at the top of the page. Good luck out there. Things are different now.

"The Woodstock Music and Art Festival will surely go down in history as a mass event of great and positive significance in the life of the country ... That this many young people could assemble so peaceably and with such good humor in a mile-square area ... speaks volumes about their dedication to the ideal of respect for the dignity of the individual ... In a nation beset with a crescendo of violence, this is a vibrantly hopeful sign. If violence is infectious, so, happily, is nonviolence." _Michael Lang, Boston Globe

Buyer Beware

We are three weeks away from new rules going into effect as a result of the NAR settlement. I have commented on these changes in previous posts and wanted to discuss in more detail the two changes that will have the biggest impact.

(1) Buyer's broker compensation will no longer be displayed in the MLS after August 17. The way it works now is that sellers offer compensation to the buyer's broker (through the listing broker) and that is displayed in the MLS listing and is folded into the asking price. Usually, but not always, the rate offered the buyer's broker is half the total commission the seller has agreed to pay to their listing broker. I have seen offerings as low as a few hundred dollars to as high as 5% to the buyer's broker. The majority of listing right now in our MLS are offering between 2% and 2.5%. Historically in our market, buyers agents represented their clients, found and closed on a property and were paid at closing whatever the seller's broker was offering in the MLS. Sometimes the agent would get 3% and sometimes much less. Agents usually just accepted whatever was offered and it worked out overall, good pay on some sales, not so good on others.

As of August 17, agents will no longer see on the listing what compensation, if any, is being offered and will have to find out from each listing agent what they can expect from the seller at closing. I think we will probably begin including buyer's broker compensation as a written part of the offer. This will make the buyer's agent's commission an inconvenient but integral part of the negotiating process which brings us to the second big change.

(2) Agents will, after August 17, be required to have a signed buyer broker agreement BEFORE viewing any property outlining compensation due the buyer's broker. The agreement will define exactly what the buyer will owe their agent/broker. The agreement allows for that amount to be paid partially or fully by the seller. This (below) is the exact wording concerning that in our new Buyer Broker Agreements as provided by our local Realtor association:

• Compensation received by Broker, if any, from an owner or owner’s broker for services rendered to Consumer will reduce any amount owed by Consumer per this paragraph.  

If a buyer's agent has an agreement with their client for more pay than the seller is offering, the buyer can either negotiate for a seller concession large enough to cover the commission or they will have to pay their broker the difference at closing. This is going to become awkward very quickly.

Imagine negotiating with a seller to within a few thousand dollars and knowing that your agent's pay is the only thing keeping you and seller from agreement. For instance; a buyer's top number they're willing to pay for a certain property is $500,000 and their agent has presented an offer for $500,000 with a request for a 3% concession from the seller to cover the agent's pay. The seller tells their agent they will accept the $500,000 but with no concessions, take it or leave it and figure out the commission however it pleases the buyer. The buyer can either walk away or take the $500,000 and pay their agent another $15,000 out of pocket or possibly negotiate a lower rate with their agent if they'll even consider it. 

Note that the commission has always been built into the price but it wasn't part of the negotiations between the buyer and seller. I have done many deals where I or I and the other agent agreed between ourselves to accept lower pay to bridge the gap and make a deal work out. Those agreements between agents to the benefit of their clients will be less likely to happen now and I suspect more of these close deals will just fail to come to agreement.

There is some interesting wording in the new agreement concerning exactly when a buyer owes their broker. Check out the highlighted phrases:

If using this agreement form, buyers will owe their broker once they contract to purchase and will still owe if they default on that contract and never close. I'd be very hesitant to sign an agreement with this wording and, if I did, I'd be sure to at least negotiate a reasonable rate. Notice in the last paragraph that the agent can select either a percentage or an amount OR a percentage or amount PLUS an additional amount. That last blank is tailormade for junk fees. Buyer's agents are going to be sliding this agreement across the desk to their clients for signatures agreeing to pay the agent a percentage PLUS their "non-negotiable" transaction or brokerage fee which is a fancy way to spell junk. If there is a number in that last blank on the buyer brokerage agreement you signed, you agreed to be robbed.

I would advise buyers to carefully read whatever agreement their agent presents them with and to question anything they don't understand. There is no set commission or rate. It's all negotiable. If you think $1000 is plenty for your agent for the transaction you hope to have, ask for it. There is little reason to agree to pay them 3% plus $395 just because they asked for it and told you it wasn't negotiable. I might consider paying the $395 junk fee if they'd drop the percentage by a point or two.

It's going to be wild and probably not a lot of fun for buyers and their agents. Agents in our market have always gotten occasional calls from people on vacation wanting to see properties while they're here. That's part of real estate in a vacation destination. Now those folks are going to have to have a discussion about the agent's pay and sign an agreement to those terms before they can get in to see that little beach condo that caught their eye. Awkward. Best of luck to everyone on all three sides. We are entering uncharted waters.

"Against profitability, morality is overmatched." _Jay Busbee 

Pay Now or Pay Later

This picture is from a better time on Union Island in the Grenadines. Hurricane Beryl destroyed almost every structure on the island as it did on several small neighboring islands. Imagine your entire community being wiped out with not a single neighbor escaping major damage. A charity that I trust to prudently use my donation is Direct Relief, donation link HERE.

There are currently 285 condo and townhome units and 50 single family homes for sale in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral as reported by our MLS. Inventory has pulled back from it's recent highs and has been more or less static since the beginning of summer. Fourteen condo units and two homes have found a buyer in the first 13 days of July which is a noticeable slowdown from our pace of sales earlier this spring. Median time on the market for the remaining 50 single family homes is 64 days and for the condos, 79 days.

There seems to be a sense of increased caution about condos among buyers. The uncertainty about condo fees for the condos that have not yet completed their structural reserve studies and determined the funding necessary to comply is adding friction to the offering process. After seeing some of the fee increases among the buildings who have done their inspections and begun funding the new reserves I understand the reticence. 

Buyers are quickly finding themselves in a conflicting position with incentive to wait for reserve studies before offering and another incentive to hurry to get under contract before they find themselves responsible for paying their agent because of the new buyer's broker compensation requirements slated to go into effect on August 17. On one hand I might contract a condo before August 17 only to find myself staring at a healthy increase in fees by the end of the year. On the other hand I might wait for the new fees to become known and, if after August 17, find myself owing my agent out of my own pocket. I think it's safe to expect many sellers to continue offering buyer's broker co-broke but I also think it's reasonable to expect quite a few to refuse to offer anything. After all, real estate commissions are loathed by pretty much everyone except agents and their families. Having to possibly pay or even discuss agent commission is not going to be embraced by buyers but that discussion is going to be required come August 17. Remember my previous appeals to reject junk fees? Now all buyers are going to get to reject them before they ever see the first property. Keep in mind that what you agree to pay your agent is entirely negotiable and there is zero reason to pay your agent a junk fee on top of a percentage of the purchase price. I shouldn't have to say this but don't let a real estate agent rip you off with a made-up junk fee.

There are several new houses in a riverfront development in south Cocoa Beach that have been under construction for over three years. Construction has started and stopped several times during those three years and appears to have stopped again. None are completed although three of them look to be close. They've been at that "close to complete" stage for over a year. Several of these sluggish builds already closed in the MLS two and three years ago, several of them before the first block had been laid. I'm sure there's a reasonable explanation. Reckon how long these buyers are going to wait for their keys? Meanwhile buyers at The Surf oceanfront downtown should begin closing on their new units by the end of the month.

Lots of things happening downtown with the old Yen Yens building torn down and construction beginning on the new brew pub/food court at the same site. The new Cocoa Beach City Hall one block away is coming along nicely. The old International Palms has been reduced to piles of rubble and construction on the new Westin resort complex there is supposed to begin in August, hurricane season allowing. There are several other projects being discussed and construction is under way on a few. 

Cocoa Beach is changing but the population holds steady at the 12,000 number as it has for fifty years. It's hard to increase population when there is no vacant land. Something has to come down for something to go up. We didn't always realize how fortunate we were that we ran out of land long ago. I can relate to John Cougar's "I'll probably die in a small town." Take care out there in the heat. Seek shade and stay hydrated.

"I shall not commit the fashionable stupidity of regarding everything I cannot understand as a fraud." _Carl Jung

Trying to Reason With Hurricane Season

 After peaking in early June, the inventory of residential real estate for sale in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral has pulled back somewhat. There are currently 278 condo and townhome units and 47 single family homes for sale on our MLS. Those levels are about 10% less than they were three weeks ago.

A total of 54 condo units have gone under contract since June 1. Median time on market before finding a buyer was 49 days and median price was $350,000. The median time on market for the remaining condo inventory is 79 days with a median asking price of $405,000 and a median monthly condo fee of $642. 

Forty nine condos and townhomes have closed so far in June with a median time on market of 61 days. 63% of them sold for cash. Only five of them sold for full original asking price or higher with the majority of sales at substantial discounts to original asking price. Median condo fee for the sold condos was $705 a month.

We are seeing more condos completing their milestone inspections and reserve studies with fees adjusting to fund the new reserves. Fees across the board including one and two story buildings which are exempt from the new reserve requirements continue to rise. The main driver pushing fees higher for the exempt buildings has been insurance premium inflation. For everyone else, in addition to more expensive insurance, it is funding the new structural reserves. One other expense facing some condo owners is paying for a new roof required by their insurance company to keep coverage. Our takeaway; the golden years of cheap Florida condo living are effectively over.

The median asking price of the 47 single family homes for sale is $875,000 with a median time on market of 64 days. Lowest asking price for a Cocoa Beach single family home right now is $599,000 and highest is $4.7 MM. Only seven homes have closed so far in June with a median price of $770,000. Three of those sold in the first five days on the market.

We are about six weeks away from a tidal change in the way buying and selling real estate will happen. Buyers will not be able to view properties without a signed representation and compensation agreement with the agent showing them the property. Buyers can no longer count on their agent being paid by the seller and will be faced with the responsibility of paying their agent at closing whatever they agreed to in the buyer's broker agreement. Some sellers may agree to pay some or all of the buyer's broker compensation but it is reasonable to expect some of them to offer nothing, pushing the burden of buyer's agent's pay onto the buyer. It's going to be interesting and seems reasonable to expect a lot of agents to fail in this new landscape.

Buyers, read that buyer's brokerage agreement carefully and know that it's all negotiable. This is especially true of the transaction (junk) fee so many agents try to push on their clients. Do not agree to transaction or brokerage fees despite an agent telling you that they are not negotiable. They are lying. Just say no or find a new agent. 

"History can definitely repeat itself if everyone concentrates very hard on making the same stupid mistakes." _Nelson DeMille

Big Changes Coming For Real Estate Sales

The dawn of a new day for real estate will be upon us very shortly. Most of the details of the changes in response to the NAR lawsuit settlement appear to have been worked out and will go into effect this August. Among the major changes, buyer's broker compensation will no longer be advertised in the MLS and agents will be required to have a signed brokerage agreement with every prospective buyer prior to showing them a property. That agreement must detail how much the buyer's agent will be paid, whether from the buyer or the seller or both. Sellers will not be prohibited from offering buyer's broker compensation as they customarily have in the past, they just can't advertise it in the MLS. Buyer's agents will have to contact listing agents prior to showing to find out if and how much is being offered so their clients can craft their offers accordingly. A buyer with an agreement to pay their agent X% will need to know before they write an offer whether that's being paid by the seller or whether they'll be required to cut a check for X% to their agent's broker at closing.

As it stands right now, the agreement can't specify a range of commission only a fixed amount or rate. As I understand it this means that if a buyer has a buyer's brokerage agreement with their agent stating 2.5% commission to the agent's brokerage, the agent can't accept a higher amount if offered by the seller. The seller will just keep the overage beyond the buyer agreement's rate. This means that buyers who sign a brokerage agreement agreeing to 3% will be at a disadvantage to buyers who sign for 2.5% or lower (if the seller is offering the higher percentage) as the seller will have less expenses if selling to the buyer sporting a lower rate agreement. 

I suspect in the beginning most sellers will continue to offer a co-broke as not doing so might eliminate buyers with minimal cash to put down. Having to pay their agent out of pocket in addition to the down payment will be more than some buyers can handle. The big question right now is what rate will buyer's agents be going for. Do they dare ask for a high percentage when that might weaken their clients' negotiating power with sellers who stand to retain the difference between what they're offering buyer's brokers and what that client's brokerage agreement states? Will there be a price war among buyer's agents? Will buyers go to Zillow and sign a "touring agreement" thinking it won't commit them to an agent only to be presented with a buyer's brokerage agreement when they meet the "tour guide"? Will they just go directly to the listing agent and forego representation in order to avoid buyer's agent fees? This is going to take months to play out and it's going to be confusing in the short term. Long term I expect commissions across the board to come down and a lot of agents to leave the business. The coming condo reckoning this year will contribute to both.

One positive of this is that those agents who charge nasty "mandatory" transaction fees will have to address this shady practice on the buyer's brokerage agreement right at the beginning when buyers can simply refuse to accept them. Some of these details may change before taking effect in August but the overall theme of making buyer's broker compensation transparent to all parties will persist and the process of looking for and buying or selling a house will be quite different than it is now. There is a good chance that crafty listing agents will figure out a way to make this more lucrative for them. Buyers' agents have much less rosy prospects. Their pay will almost certainly come down in the mid to long term. There will be some unintended consequences and unplanned victims but it should be rather interesting as it plays out. 

"The tree isn't shaking but the leaves are falling." _Ian Rafalko

Approaching 300

Summer has arrived in Cocoa Beach. Turtles are nesting, baby ducks, ospreys and bunnies all over the place and the sand is hot enough to burn your feet if you walk too slowly down to the water. Inventory in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral is heating up as well. This morning there are 297 condo and townhouse units for sale in the MLS, more than twice the number one year ago. Sales have been slow so far in May with only 16 condos/townhomes going under contract in the first 11 days of the month, while at the same time 30 new listings hit the market. In the last 30 days alone, we've had 81 new condo listings, not good news for the over one hundred listings who've been hoping for a buyer for three months or longer. We typically get a lot of new condo listings after the snowbirds depart so that alone is not a big concern unlike the sharp disparity between sales and new listings.

Summer season will begin in earnest as schools finish for the year and vacationers begin arriving. I will be very interested in how real estate activity plays out through the summer season especially condos. I will keep updating here. Wear sunscreen, seek the shade when you can and stay hydrated.

“Conflating luck and talent is dangerous...The Pareto principle shows that even if competence is evenly distributed, 80% of effects stem from 20% of the causes.” __Scott Galloway

Smooth Criminals Strike Again

The ugly issue of brokerage transaction fees has come up again. While it's legal to charge anything you can get a client to agree to, the practice of adding a fee on top of the commission being paid is, in almost every situation, a distasteful and dishonest practice. As I've described it in the past, it's robbery by a smooth criminal. In discussions with other agents who charge these fees, the almost unanimous justification is that it's to pay the personnel who handle the paperwork and shepherd the transaction through to closing. Most have convinced themselves that what they're saying is true. It's not. As Jeff Goldblum's character Michael in The Big Chill famously said, "I don't know anyone who could get through the day without two or three juicy rationalizations." This one is as juicy as they come.

I wonder how the many brokerages that don't and have never charged transaction fees, like Walker Bagwell, manage to pay for the cost of handling their transactions without the fees variously called "regulatory", "brokerage", "transaction", "compliance" etc. The simple answer is, that's what the commission is for, to pay the brokerage for selling or helping you buy a property. These fees are often used by brokerages to offset high commission splits they offer to attract agents. Most of the time, when an agent charges their client a transaction fee they are having the client subsidize the higher split they are receiving from their broker. The rest of the time, they are simply profiteering at the expense of their client. Both of these reasons stink to high Heaven and are dishonestly presented to clients as a routine cost in a real estate transaction. Most people have not done enough real estate deals to know the truth. An ethical agent will eat the few hundred dollars out of the thousands they are receiving in commission rather than pass it onto their client if the brokerage will not waive it. An agent who will not drop a compliance junk fee when asked does not deserve anyone's business. Even trying to charge a transaction fee is evidence that the agent should not be trusted. There are plenty of agents like myself who find the practice abhorrent who will not rob their clients of an extra few hundred dollars. I would advise all sellers and buyers of real estate to refuse to pay these junk fees when presented with them. It is not normal practice and it is not done by the agent you want representing you. No agent is going to walk away from the thousands of commission dollars they are already being paid over a few hundred. As Nancy Reagan said, "Just say no." The junk fee will disappear.

There may be situations where the commission being paid is so low that a fee is called for, however, these types of deals are rare. Don't be fooled. With the changes proposed by NAR coming soon I expect junk fees to become more widespread as agents and brokerages position themselves to take advantage of the new rules whatever they turn out to be. 

Key takeaway here is that there should be no extra fees of any type paid to a brokerage for buying or selling a property beyond the commission being paid. An agent may tell you it's non-negotiable and must be paid no matter what. They're lying and will pay out of their commission when the client refuses, every single time. Don't be robbed. I will close out this rant with another brilliant quote from The Big Chill that perfectly applies to this practice;

“Nobody thinks they're a bad person. I'm not even claiming that people always think they're doing the right thing; they may know that they're doing something dishonest or insensitive or manipulative but they almost always think that there's a good reason for doing it. They almost always think it will turn out for the best in the end, even if it just turns out best for them, because by definition what's best for them is what's best.” _Jeff Goldblum as Michael in The Big Chill

Doubled and Rising

The inventory of residential properties for sale in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral continues to increase. This morning there are 283 MLS-listed condo and townhome units and 41 single family homes for sale in our two cities. That total is over twice what it was last April. There have been 87 new condo listings in just the last 30 days while a quarter of the units for sale have been on the market for over six months without a sale. 

Sales activity so far in 2024 has been slow. The number of condo units sold in the first quarter of 2024 was the lowest in eleven years continuing last year's downward trend after the peak sales years of 2021 and 2022. April looks to follow the decline with 24 units closed so far at a median selling price of $460,000. Half of those units sold in the first 34 days on market with six of them selling in the first week. Three of those first week sales closed for over a million dollars and sixteen of the 24 sold for cash. Median condo fee of the sold units was $755 a month. Over a quarter of the remaining condo inventory has monthly fees exceeding $800.

Our market is noticeably different than a year ago. Sales didn't begin to slow down until mid-summer last year and that slowdown is continuing. The 126 listings that are older than 90 days are not listening to the market. Recent years' prices are not working now except for exceptional properties. Sellers that are clinging to what their neighbor got in 2022 are likely to see their listings continue to languish.  Sellers that bought before 2021 are probably in a position to eek out a profit but those that closed in 2021 and 2022 are unlikely to be able to recoup their purchase price in today's market should they want to sell. There are quite a few listings that were just purchased last year and year before. Unfortunately for them, buyers are once again in the driver's seat in our market and can afford to be patient and selective with rising inventory and declining comps. 

Just when we thought the season was over a huge wave of visitors rolled into town this past week. Traffic on the roads, sidewalks and at Publix has been thick and nine holes at the Cocoa Beach Country Club might take two and a half hours if your timing is unlucky. You won't know until you're on the course. Either way, the weather has been superb and rockets have been launching at a rate we've never seen before. Cocoa Beach is a special little surf town sandwiched between the river and the ocean and spaceships are a common sight. Not a description that applies to many places. Cheers, all.

"The best lack all conviction while the worst are full of passionate intensity." William Butler Yeats

Longer and Lower

The average time it takes to sell a residential property in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral has been rising steadily since December when the average time between listing and accepted contract was 69 days. By the end of February the time to sell had doubled to 138 days. During the same time the average selling price as a percentage of original asking price had dropped to 90% from 94%. 

Looking at the current for sale inventory, the median time on market is 109 days for single family homes and 106 days for condo and townhome units. In addition to taking longer to sell and at a lower percentage of original asking price, condo fees have been rising steadily in response to higher master policy costs and funding for newly required structural reserves. The median condo fee for units closed a year ago was $500. Median monthly condo fee for units for sale in oceanfront complexes is $785 and for all currently-listed condos it is $642. The number of units in older two story buildings with lower fees that aren't subject to the new legislation is keeping this number misleadingly low.

Condo units contracted since first of February had a median time on market half as long as the unsold inventory. That suggests to me that newer listings have been pricing more competitively and have been picking off the existing buyers while older listings have clung to prices that the market is rejecting. I would encourage hopeful sellers to examine their asking prices and weigh them against recent selling prices and adjust accordingly. Inventory continues to grow while the impact from the new reserves remains unknown for many condo complexes. By the end of the year when all affected complexes must be in compliance, the median condo fee is certain to be higher than at present and substantially so in many cases. The impact on the total condo market does not look to be positive except for units in one and two story complexes. The much-lower fees make these units attractive in comparison.

This month marks the 20 year anniversary of this blog. I started writing it in 2004 on a whim and soon realized that I enjoyed it. There was a lot to write about then. There were lots of new construction condos and mortgage money was there for the taking  for anyone regardless of their assets or income or lack of same. We now know how that worked out. By late 2006 the signs were there that the end was near. The market began crashing in earnest in 2007 and we endured eight years of distressed sales after prices collapsed. In 2007 there were zero distressed sales (Foreclosures and short sales). The peak was 2010 when 56% of all residential sales in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral were distressed. It took six years to work through all the short sales and foreclosures and by 2016 we were back to a single digit percentage (5%) of distressed sales.

The rest of 2024 looks to be eventful for our local real estate market with the looming condo inspection deadline and the proposed changes to the fundamentals of how real estate is transacted. I look forward to the outcomes and will continue to report on both. Happy Easter, everyone.

"Being famous on social media is like being rich in Monopoly." _Terry Hayes

The End of the World As We Know It or Is It?

Social media has been aflame with speculation about the implications of the proposed settlement just announced by NAR for the lawsuit about commissions. The suit, filed in 2019, alleged that agents and brokers conspired to keep commissions artificially high. In the proposed settlement, NAR would pay over $400 million in damages and make changes to the way buyers' brokers are paid and how that payment is advertised. Key takeaway right now is that this is a proposed settlement and not an actual settlement. If accepted, changes would likely go into effect in July.

The way things are now, a seller hires a listing broker and agrees to pay an amount to that broker, usually a percentage of selling price, and the broker agrees to share part of it, usually half but not always, with a cooperating broker who brings a buyer. That co-broke amount is posted in the MLS and buyer's agents know what they can expect to be paid if their buyer client closes on the property. The total amount of commission paid to both brokers is paid out of the selling price and the buyer does not have to come up with additional cash to pay their broker. It is effectively folded into the mortgage, if any.

Under the proposed settlement, MLS listings will no longer advertise a co-broke, if any, being offered to a buyer's broker. An MLS will, however, still have the option to include compensation if it is presented as a seller concession. Sellers have always had the choice to offer as little as they like to a buyer's broker but most listings in our market have typically offered some percentage to buyers' brokers to incentivize showings of their property. Buyer agents will now have to find other ways to be compensated, either by their clients directly (see below), or through seller concessions or negotiations outside the MLS.

The proposed settlement includes the requirement of signed buyer's broker agreements. With no co-broke being offered in the MLS, these agreements will need to include a stipulation for payment to the buyer's broker if they hope to be paid. Here is how it's handled on one of the buyer brokerage agreements currently in use in Florida. Note that retainers have not commonly been used for most residential transactions in our market although we might see that change as well.

With the possibility of handling a sale and being paid nothing, this will be the only way a buyer's agent can be certain of being paid should there turn out to be zero co-broke. Like a lot of consumer protection actions, this looks like it could harm consumers with the unintended consequence of excising the buyer's broker's commission from the mortgage and adding it to the cash needed to close by buyers. In addition, I think it's reasonable to expect all sorts of creative new fees. Unscrupulous agents and brokers are already charging clients junk transaction fees on top of commission received so maybe other less larcenous agents will be tempted to relax their ethical standards and start charging transaction fees, too. I think total transaction costs are more likely to increase than decrease in the aftermath of whatever settlement is ultimately agreed upon. That's just the way it is.

This can go one of two ways; brokers and agents find a reasonable work-around to ensure they get paid and buyers can finance commissions as part of a mortgage, or residential real estate is about to go through a paradigm shift that will decimate the ranks of agents, not necessarily a bad thing in itself. As of right now, nothing has changed and, if the settlement is accepted, the changes detailed above will probably go into effect in mid-July. Until then, everything you hear is speculation. Meanwhile the condo market is dealing with its own issues. For the time being, all we can do is wait and watch.

"Any regulatory framework emerging from closed door meetings will benefit those in closed door meetings." _Denver Riggleman

It's On

Real estate sales are picking up as we move into peak snowbird season in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. In the last four weeks 77 condo and townhouse units have gone under contract in the two cities. Median asking price was $415,000 and median time on market was 50 days. Fifteen of those contracted in that period have already closed with eight of them closing within two weeks of contract. 

Current inventory of condos and townhomes is 261 units with a median time on market of 70 days and a median asking price of $430,000. Of interest to potential buyers, a quarter of the condos for sale have monthly fees over $800. We are seeing more and more fee increases as condo associations complete their milestone inspections and begin funding their new structural reserves. This trend of rising fees will continue through the end of the year as everyone comes into compliance by the Dec. 31 deadline.

During the same four week period, eleven single family homes found a buyer. Median asking price was $740,000 with a median time on market of 72 days. There are currently 41 SF homes actively for sale with a median 60 days on market and a median asking price of $970,000. A sad reality of our current market is the fact that there are no homes for sale asking less than $550,000. Potential new residents with a budget of less than a half million dollars are forced to look at condo or townhome units if they want to purchase a home. That condo alternative is not as attractive as it was in the recent past. 

Increasing carrying costs are impacting those who may be considering a condo as an alternative to a SF home. Of the condos asking between $300,000 and $500,000 with at least two bedrooms, over a fifth have monthly fees in excess of $800. Someone purchasing one of these units in the mid $400s with a 20% down payment will be looking at combined condo fees, property taxes and mortgage payment approaching $4000 a month. I suspect a lot of home searches are coming to a screeching halt once the potential buyers add up their likely costs.

Despite the higher carrying costs, sales are happening. I don't know if there is a point at which increasing costs will slow the condo market but if there is, we haven't gotten there yet. Good luck to all those looking. It would be prudent to be aware of the factors affecting condo fees and to do one's homework. If the fees are lower than average, there is a good chance that the new reserves are not being funded yet. They will be by the end of the year and that could turn a currently attractive $500 month fee into a $1000 a month burden. An exception to all this are the exempt condos, those in complexes with no buildings over two stories. Those condos do not have to do milestone inspections nor do they have to fund structural reserves. A nice unit in a well-maintained one or two story building is worth consideration if one can be found. 

"All mushrooms are edible, some of them more than once."

Full Snowbird

Halfway through February and sales activity in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral is typical for this time of year, slow but picking up. After closing 28 condo and townhouse units in January, we've already closed 24 so far in February. Median time on market for all closed units since January 1 was 54 days with a median selling price of $323,000. Slightly more than half of the purchasers paid cash for the property. The median association fee for the sold units was $660 per month. There are currently 254 total units for sale with a median asking price of $435,000 and median time on market of 75 days.

Single family home activity has been sedate with a total of ten homes closed since New Years Day. Median selling price was $925,000 with a median time on market of ten days. There are a total of 34 houses for sale this morning in the two cities plus another three offered pre-construction. Median asking price of all homes is $980,000 with a median time on market of 60 days.

We are just now entering the busiest season of the year for visitors and real estate activity. In March we have a crowded confluence of snowbirds, school baseball teams with families in tow and a sprinkling of lost spring breakers. Some of those visitors will use their time here to look for a property and several will find one and go under contract. Should we expect anything to be different this year? 

Maybe. The substantial increase in condo fees has been reflected in rising rental rates. Snowbird rental prices have been steadily increasing in recent years with extra large increases the last two. There are modest 2/2 oceanfront units commanding $6000 a month rent this season that rented for $3500 just three years ago. The specific units in my example are paying over $20,000 annually just for property taxes and condo fees when those expenses were just $10,800 in 2020. The snowbird who may have thought about buying one of these units this year will be looking at a $600,000 purchase price and monthly expenses of around $2000 a month before any mortgage payment. Does it make sense to own with those numbers rather than pay $18,000 rent for a three month stay? Add to that the risk of further depreciation as selling prices in our example complex have pulled back substantially in the last two years. I don't know the answer but the math is likely to exclude some from our pool of potential buyers. Maybe dropping prices will pull those reluctant buyers back in.

How about the market at large? Sales volume remains in line with historical volume for this time of year so any concerns about higher carrying costs, if any, are subdued. Even so, I don't think the market will continue to shrug off higher taxes, insurance and condo fees without some compensating pull back in selling prices. I will be surprised not to see a decline in most condo selling prices similar to the pull back in my example above. Many smaller complexes have not had any recent sales so owners in those complexes have been unaffected and unaware of the declines in other bigger complexes. The next sale in those buildings might reveal that the decline has metastasized.

Single family homes, resilient in their scarcity, do not appear to be as affected by increasing costs as the condo market. That market is far smaller and responding to a different dynamic. Insurance costs have accelerated at a similar rate to condos but with no apparent effect, yet. Perhaps the always-low inventory will continue to support that segment of our market. We shall see as the season unfolds.

"The fact that some people can't distinguish between etymology and entomology bugs me in ways I can't put into words." _Gemma Amor

Chugging Along

There are currently 28 existing single family homes for sale in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral plus another three offered for preconstruction reservation. Median asking price of the active listings is $986,000 and the lowest priced home available is $577,700. Median selling price of the three homes closed so far this month is $1.06 MM. Last January the highest selling price of the five homes sold was $600,000. 

Condo inventory in our two cities is ramping back up and is at 254 units for sale this morning with a median asking price of $425,000 and median time on market of 81 days. Seventeen units have closed so far in January with a median selling price of $313,000 and median days on market of 45 days. Slightly over half of those sold for cash. Another 33 condo sellers have found buyers since January 1 as have seven single family home sellers. 

It's still too early into snowbird season to get any kind of meaningful read on the direction of our market in 2024 but with 40 new contracts in the first 23 days the prospects are promising. We began last year with 135 condo units for sale compared to our current 254 units and single family homes inventory was just slightly less than it is now. I'm usually happy to offer a prediction on market direction but I'm stumped with this market. Higher inventory and longer time on market seems a negative indicator but sales activity is right in line with a normal January so far. Interest rates, though less than a few months ago, are still higher than they were at the beginning of last year. Shockingly high insurance premium increases and ballooning condo fees have yet to be reflected in sales activity. I do expect a reckoning in the condo market as the fee increases become more widespread but it might be after summer before we can get a feel for that impact. Selling prices have pulled back significantly in a few larger condo complexes but there are many smaller complexes that haven't had any sales by which to judge price direction. For now, it's wait and see. 

The first wave of snowbirds have arrived with many more to follow in February and March. Those who got here early have had to deal with a wetter and colder start to a year than is normal. The golfers among them had to find other activities during the many course-closed days at the Cocoa Beach Country Club. Hoping for more sunshine and less wind moving forward. 

Speaking of colder, check out the temperature map above. A difference of 40 degrees between Destin and Cocoa Beach on this January day. Cold fronts routinely cross northwest Florida in the winter but lose their strength as they move further south and many either don't make it to Cocoa Beach or arrive with much less intensity. We certainly get our cold spells but nothing like the frequency or intensity that our Pensacola to Panama City people experience. Snowbirds considering a Florida beach town as a getaway spot from the winter cold would be prudent to choose their Florida destination wisely.

“Sufficiently advanced ignorance is indistinguishable from malice.”