completing a chapter

“We’re not ending the journey today, we’re completing a chapter of a journey that will never end.” _Commander Chris Ferguson during the final flight of the Space Shuttle Atlantis (pictured above)

Activity has been slow so far during the mini slow season between mid-April and the end of May. Condo inventory has surprisingly pulled back and stands at 290 MLS-listed condo and townhome units for sale this morning in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. That includes twelve yet-to-be-built condo units in a proposed building just off the ocean in north Cocoa Beach. The median unadjusted time on market for all units is 79 days. Fifty eight units have been on the market for over six months with thirteen of those listed for over a year. Only fifteen units have closed in the first two weeks of May. Median monthly condo fee for the condo units for sale is $750 with eighty between $900 and $2100 a month.

There are 58 MLS-listed single family homes for sale in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. Median price is $850,000 with a median time on market of 82 days. Six have closed so far in May including an oceanfront home in south Cocoa Beach that closed for $3.4 MM.

Historically, activity picks up again in June and stays busy through Labor Day when we enter the fall slow season. We’ll have to wait and see if that historical trend persists despite the current economic headwinds.

Morning walks on the beach are magical this time of year. Besides being quiet and uncrowded, the shoreline zone is alive in May. Turtles are nesting nightly and, with no sand renourishment this past winter burying the life at the water’s edge, the sand fleas are plentiful and shorebirds are taking full advantage of the bounty. Flocks of fat ibises and other wading birds are feasting at lower tides. A moment of inattentiveness and they occasionally lose a snack to an opportunistic and aggressive fish crow or grackle venturing outside their usual feeding areas for a taste of fresh crustaceans. Just offshore pelicans are dive bombing the massive schools of pogies that are resident off our shores in spring and summer. Mackerel, bluefish, tarpon, jacks and sharks among others are hitting the schools from below as the pelicans strike from above. I’d love to know how many pounds of pogies a pelican eats on an average May day. The population of marsh rabbits beachside in the dunes is thriving as well. These guys can have up to seven litters a year and my backyard has been chocka with adults and babies grazing at sunrise and sundown. On another note; it’s a shame no predators have developed a taste for lovebugs which are experiencing a plentiful hatch this year.

I closed my last transaction earlier this year and have decided it’s time to hang up the blazer. It’s been an interesting second career that began during the mania of the bubble years of the early 2000s. That boom quickly transitioned into a multi-year distressed market in 2007 through 2012 with distressed properties (short sales and foreclosures) peaking at 56% of all sales in 2010. Short sales; the unpredictable and excruciating Russian roulette of real estate transactions. I’m happy to never deal with one of them again. Those troubled years were followed by a strong decade-long market with strong sales and rising prices that peaked in 2021 at the same time that inventory bottomed. Sales began a slowdown in 2022 and many condo complexes saw lower and lower selling prices. That slowdown and price retraction has continued through the present with a few exceptions. Many who purchased in the 2021 to 2024 period are finding themselves underwater in 2026. I have no predictions for the future trends of this market but the past suggests that it will likely continue to surprise us. Good luck to all participants and thanks to the many good agents I’ve worked with over the years. You know who you are.

I’ve enjoyed researching and writing about our small market here in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral and meeting many of you along the way and honored to call some of you friends. It’s been a rewarding and gratifying experience. I may occasionally write here about Cocoa Beach and things other than real estate in the future should the mood strike me but for now this is goodnight and goodbye for the real estate specific writings. Cheers.

That’s why I’m glad we had this time together, ‘Cause it makes me feel like I belong. Seems we just got started and before you know it comes the time we have to say, ‘So long.’ ____Carol Burnett 

Mini-Season

Late April and we are into our mini spring slow season that lasts until schools begin letting out for the summer and vacationers replace the snowbirds that just departed. We usually have about a month and a half of respite before the summer season begins in earnest in June.

It’s been a busy snowbird season for real estate sales. After closing 55 units in March, three weeks into April and we have closed 28 condos and townhomes and 15 single-family homes so far in the month. Most of these were contracted in February and March. First the condos:

Inventory this morning stands at 313 units for sale in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. Median time on market is somewhere around 90 days adjusted for listing agent monkey business. Median time on market for the 28 closed units was 113 days. The half that were on the market more than 113 days averaged selling for just 82% of original asking price. Most of these had multiple price drops over the life of the listing confirming what the high discount is already telling us, unreasonable initial expectations from the sellers and reluctance to accept the market’s message. Four of the units sold for less than the sellers paid, all four of those purchased in the last five years.

The half that sold in less than 113 days averaged 94% of original asking price. That market message is clear. Price realistically and get closer to asking price and sell faster. Half of the closed units sold for $300,000 or less, a lower median than we’re used to.

The single family home market has been very busy with 15 closed sales so far in April with a median selling price of $885,000. All fifteen were in Cocoa Beach with none closed in Cape Canaveral. In strong contrast to the 113 median days on market for the sold condos, median time on market for the homes was 47 days. The current inventory is 56 homes in our two cities with a median time on market of 88 days. This market segment is far healthier than our much larger condo market.

In a surprise move, the new Destination Downtown Food Hall closed it’s doors last week after just ten months in business. I’ve heard no word on what may happen to the prime downtown property at the former location of Yen Yen’s Chinese and, before that, the Prince of Wales Restaurant.

The extent of the earlier freeze damage to our vegetation all over town is plainly obvious now. Our streets are lined with piles of trimmings from dead and damaged palms, plumerias, mangoes, sea grapes and beach cabbage among others. I’m seeing green shoots around the base of the sea grapes and beach cabbage and a few green leaves on some mango trees but a lot of the more tropical species were killed outright. The coconuts appear to have mostly survived after shedding layers of fronds in the weeks following the freeze. This is exactly how climate zones are defined and redefined. I wonder where the new northernmost Florida coconut tree is. The previous placeholder probably did not survive.

“You can clutch the past so tightly to your chest that it leaves your arms too full to embrace the present.”____Jan Glidewell 

How Much Is It Worth?

Outside the city limits looking south over unincorporated south Cocoa Beach towards Patrick Air Force Base where the land widens in the distance, Banana River on the right, Atlantic Ocean on the left. Now you know.

[This is a repost of a still-relevant article from ten years ago.]

Following up on my recent post, When There Are No Comps, I'd like to explore the trustworthiness of comps a little more. An oceanfront condo sold recently in south Cocoa Beach for what seemed an unbelievably low price. It was a private sale and not on the MLS. I saw the contract. Written in the contract was a line that the purchaser would get use of the unit for the months of January, February and March free of cost for life. Sounds crazy since by buying the unit the purchaser gets exclusive use of the unit anyway. It was a tactic to defeat the first right of refusal process in this particular condo complex. It was intended to make the contract unattractive to any owners that wanted to exercise their right which would have been sure to happen since the price was so low. I feel fairly certain that the sales price on this contract did not accurately reflect the actual amount of money that changed hands. By writing the odd clause in the contract, the seller defeated the first right process  AND, if the contract price was indeed lower than the actual money changing hands, reduced his capital gains tax liability and the purchaser's  property taxes going forward. A win for both parties to the fraud but not for other taxpayers and other owners in the complex whose units now appear to be worth less than they really are.

I am aware of another unit in Cocoa Beach, also a private sale not on the MLS, that is due to close shortly that will likely record for an amount less than the actual selling price. Any Realtors or appraisers using it or the previous sale for comps will be using flawed information and will not get an accurate estimate of whatever property they're trying to value.

This works in the other direction as well. Developers are fond of propping up the comps in a new development by issuing credits to buyers at closing. I've seen "decorating credits" of up to $75,000 issued to a buyer of a new condo unit. That sale may have recorded at $600,000 but with the cash back to the buyer at closing the actual price was $525,000. A seller a year down the road may reasonably think his unit is worth $600,000 plus some appreciation. As long as the new buyer isn't aware of the unrecorded credit or the giant bonus [bribe] paid to the first buyer's agent he may willingly pay $600,000+.

This brings up an interesting point. If sales after the developer's departure reflect the inflated recorded comps as true then the initial deception becomes reality. This is actually the case at one very popular luxury complex in Cocoa Beach. There is another luxury complex in Cocoa Beach where a good number of the post-completion sales were by the developer and entities that he controlled. Several of the recorded sales involved property swaps and other off contract compensation that make selling prices seem far higher than they actually were. Private sellers in this building can't figure out why they aren't able to get any action at their asking prices which seem in line when compared to the bogus recorded prices.

Comps are only as good as the veracity and completeness of the information contained in them. Agents rarely make notes on closed sales that the entire contents were included in the final price or that commission was reduced or that the owner is getting the month of March free for the next five years. All those things affect the actual price paid. In the end it is prudent for all parties to a transaction to realize that comps are just part of the story and that there are often details that will never be known. CMAs and appraisals are only one person's opinion of value and that opinion is often formed with incomplete and/or inaccurate data. Proceed accordingly and don't lose a deal because of an opinion of value that might be flawed.

"False opinions are like counterfeit money, printed first by guilty men and thereafter circulated by honest people who perpetuate the crime without knowing what they are doing." ___paraphrased from a quote by Joseph de Maistre
 

More Than April Fools Day

Today is April Fools Day and is also the scheduled launch day for the four astronauts on Artemis II who will loop around the moon before returning to Earth, a trip of around 685,000 miles over ten days. Should the launch be scrubbed today we have five more days in this month’s window to reschedule a launch, tomorrow through the 6th. A lesser known fact about April 1st is that is the traditional departure day for the biggest wave of snowbirds beginning the northward migration back to their home states. Snowbirds come and go in our area from November through April but a very large group of them have seasonal leases through the end of March which makes today, April 1st, their checkout day. We will still have a few lingering snowbirds and occasional spring breakers but the traffic, grocery stores and golf courses will be noticeably less crowded beginning tomorrow barring a rescheduled launch of Artemis.

Inventory of condos and townhouses this morning in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral is 296 units. We usually get an increase in inventory as snowbird-occupied units vacate and are listed for sale so we should see that number back up over 300 units shortly. There were 54 units closed in the month of March, five more than last year but fewer than in each of the preceding fourteen years. Median selling price was $305,000. Prices ranged from $127,500 for a one bedroom dump needing work in a riverfront complex in Cape Canaveral to $979,000 for a luxurious newer riverfront 3 BR, 4 BA with two garages in south Cocoa Beach across the street from the ocean. Monthly condo fees ranged from $260 to $1390 with a median fee of $697. Less than half the buyers used a mortgage for their purchase.

There were twelve single family homes closed in the month from $425,000 for a fixer-upper, non-waterfront 3/2 in Cocoa Beach to $2.7 MM for an expansive riverfront estate in Cape Canaveral. Median selling price was $664,000. Median time on market was 64 days. Inventory this morning stands at 65 houses.

Godspeed to our astronauts and to the thousands of snowbirds also taking flight today.

“I’m so mad that I’m getting older. It makes me reckless.” _AdelePeak  

Questions For Frustrated Sellers

Following are ten questions that every property seller whose listing is aging without selling should be asking themselves.

10: What is the best estimate of actual current market value of my property based strictly on recently sold, comparable properties close in size, condition and location to my property? What that number was last summer when you first listed is likely to have changed.

9: Am I asking close to that number and am I willing to sell for close to that estimate or am I praying for a miracle? Like the Florida skunk ape pictured above, the existence of the wealthy uninformed buyer with no internet connection who is willing to pay your price without looking at your competition is still in doubt.

8: What is the supply of similar properties and do I think it's going to increase or decrease? This is especially relevant right now as historically we get a bump of new listings in late spring of properties that were rented to snowbirds during the January through mid-April season.

7: Are there any possible events looming that could affect the value of my property like impending fee or insurance increases or possible expensive repairs or assessments?

6: Does my property show well? Does it smell inviting? You might be surprised at the smells that sellers have become accustomed to that are off-putting to others. Your shy tabby is mighty cute but we could smell her litter box before we came in the door.

5: Is it easy to show my property? You may not realize that your tenant has become difficult or that it is difficult for buyer's agents to get showing instructions or that your listing agent keeps the keys in her office rather than using a lockbox. If your listing agent doesn't answer his phone or his office is closed on weekends, you're missing showings to prospective buyers.

4: Am I offering buyer’s brokers compensation? (Offers to pay buyers’ brokers’ compensation are no longer allowed on the MLS but most sellers in our area are still offering to pay a reasonable buyer’s broker’s commission. Refuse to offer a competitive rate and risk fewer showings and lower offers.) A seller doesn’t have to like or agree with this practice but if the competition is paying it, it is probably prudent to pinch your nose and join the party.

3: Is your listing agent offering suggestions to effect a sale or is she making excuses about the time it’s taking to sell your property? If the comps suggest the listing is over-priced and the agent is not suggesting reconsidering the price, it might be time for a talk with them. You’re not looking for someone to agree with you about your asking price. You’re looking for a sale.

2: How much is it costing me every month that the property isn't sold? In addition to taxes, fees, repairs and interest you have to figure opportunity cost on the equity (if any).

1: And number one; In which direction do I think (based on facts) my property value is headed? If I stick to my pricing guns will I eventually get my price or will I have to settle for less than I might get now if priced competitively?

Activity has been brisk among all price ranges from $120,000 to over a million with 46 condo sellers finding a buyer since March 1st. Would your unit not have been a perfect fit for one of the 46 buyers? Why aren’t you among those who received an acceptable offer?

“Someone had to run the harvesters in the rice and sugarcane fields, check the irrigation canals and robots, install things, fix things. Humans were still not only the cheapest robots around, but also, for many tasks, the only robots that could do the job. They were self-reproducing robots too. They showed up and worked, generation after generation; give them three thousand calories a day and a few amenities, a little time off, and a strong jolt of fear, and you could work them at almost anything. Give them some ameliorative drugs and you had a working class, reified and coglike.” _Kim Stanley Robinson from 2312 

Peak Snowbird Season Update

Peak occupancy, peak traffic, peak logjams at the golf course, March maxes all the measures. Two more weeks until we catch a breather and get to enjoy a slow wind-down before the school year ends and we reaccelerate into summer vacation season. 

Sales the first half of March continued at the accelerated pace from February. In the first two weeks of March, twenty seven condo units and three single-family homes closed in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. The sold homes ranged from $425,000 to $605,000, none of them waterfront. The closed condos ranged from $152,000 for a tiny one bedroom unit in Cape Canaveral two blocks from the beach to a luxurious 3/4 riverfront unit with 2540 square feet in south Cocoa Beach across the street from the beach that closed for $979,000. That unit had been on the market for over two years originally asking $1,200,000. It’s common to be optimistic about pricing but foolish absent other factors to not react to the market’s indifference for over two years. The median time on market for all the closed condos was a surprisingly low 50 days. The units that priced competitively and sold quickly contributed to that number falling from recent much higher levels. 

There were other examples of pricing stubbornness. A unit in an oceanfront building in Cocoa Beach was originally listed for $750,000 and finally closed this month for $555,000, almost two years since first hitting the market. A Cape Canaveral unit that took over a year to sell was first listed for $555,000 and just closed for $393,000. A beautiful oceanfront corner that took six months to sell was first asking $595,000 but settled for $475,000 in the end. Sellers take note. Sales activity is strong but they’re not overpaying. Anyone who has been on the market for three months or longer has received a message from the market. Ignore the message if selling the unit soon isn’t a priority. If it is, compare the asking price to the selling prices of recently closed comparable units and adjust accordingly. It is probably overpriced. 

In response to the positive feedback from the recent post about real life for agents on the ground, here’s another tale about a weird transaction from 2017 to whet the appetite. 

This is the true account of an interesting and perplexing transaction last month with a mysterious buyer and his communication-impaired buyer’s agent from another city. 

November 3, 2017: A buyer’s agent calls the listing agent of a condo in Cocoa Beach asking to show. The unit is vacant and available to show anytime, but, being from Orlando, the buyer’s agent doesn’t have access to the local electronic lockbox system so he asks if listing agent can unlock the unit for him. No problem. 

November 8: After no contact for five days after showing, the buyer’s agent delivers a very low offer contingent upon a mortgage. The listing agent presents the offer to the seller who doesn’t want to counter as the unit is in a condotel complex where a mortgage is impossible to acquire unless it is from an unconventional source. The listing agent suggests countering without a financing contingency. Done. 

November 9: Buyer counters at a lower number, cash, close in 30 days. 

November 10: Negotiations ensue and buyer and seller verbally agree upon a higher number, cash purchase with a 30 day close and buyer’s agent asks listing agent to write it up and he’ll get buyer to sign. Written, signed by seller and delivered to buyer’s agent same day. 

November 11: Buyer’s agent sends a lender’s condo questionnaire but no signed contract. What? This was a cash offer. Buyer’s agent says don’t worry, buyer is just exploring his options. OK, management company completes the questionnaire three days later and listing agent forwards it to buyer’s agent. Buyer’s agent goes radio silent. 

December 7: The buyer’s agent hasn’t responded to any emails, texts or phone calls from listing agent for three weeks. Suddenly, 26 days after last contact, he emails listing agent to say that buyer is moving forward if the property is still available and is sending the signed contract shortly. Listing agent informs seller that the dead have arisen but neither holds their breath. 

December 8: Signed contract is received from the buyer’s agent with escrow deposit due in three days and a ten day inspection period with a close date of Dec. 30. Buyer’s agent returns to his Faraday cage and relights the “Do Not Disturb” sign. Listing agent marks the MLS listing as “Backups” rather than “Contingent” and notes in the narrative that the contract is “shaky” and encourages backup offers. Fingers are crossed but seller’s and listing agent’s expectations remain minimal. 

December 14: Escrow deposit is received, three days late. Buyer’s agent surfaces briefly to acknowledge receipt and reenters suspension chamber blithely letting the inspection period expire four days later with zero contact.

December 26: After a two week disappearance buyer’s agent notifies listing agent that inspections will be done Dec. 27 three days before closing. Inspection period expired on Dec. 18. 

December 27: late night: Buyer’s agent emails inspection report with a demand for all items to be repaired prior to closing on the 30th. 

December 28: Seller refuses to do repairs but offers $300 credit at closing for the small items found. and buyer responds that he is willing to delay closing to give seller time to repair. Seller says, no dice, and closing will still happen on Dec. 30 or he will keep the deposit which became non-refundable ten days earlier at the expiration of the inspection period. 

December 29: Buyer wisely agrees to the $300 repair credit, signs closing documents and initiates wire of funds late in the day which does not arrive until Jan. 3 for unknown reasons. 

January 3: Buyer’s agent who has been absent since demanding repairs the previous week sends his last text to the listing agent “Did you receive commission yet?” While frustrating, this all-too-common level of incompetence from some of my fellow practitioners does provide entertainment and makes for lively discussions when the used house salesmen gather round the table for refreshments. I’d like to thank this buyer’s agent and his peers for making the rest of us look better than we would sans the contrast. A hearty toast merry fellows. 

“First of all, we must internalize the “flatulation” of the matter by transmitting the effervescence of the “Indianisian” proximity in order to further segregate the crux of my venereal infection. Now, if I may retain my liquids here for one moment. I’d like to continue the “redundance” of my quote, unquote “intestinal tract”, you see because to preclude on the issue of world domination would only circumvent - excuse me, circumcise the revelation that reflects the “Afro-disiatic” symptoms which now perpetrates the jheri curis activation.” __Oswald Bates - In Living Color

February Condo Surprise

14th St. surf wax graffiti in the 90s

In addition to the graffiti above on the wooden barrier at the 14th St. oceanfront dead-end, there was more wisdom inscribed on the seawall. My favorites were "Chad Can't Surf" and "Eric Shreds". The latter was later appended with "Lettuce". 14th St. was THE surf and gathering spot for the south Cocoa Beach crew throughout the 90s.

Condo and townhome inventory in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral remains more or less static with 310 units for sale this morning according to the MLS. After a strong December for condo sales we saw a brief slowdown in January followed by sales taking off in February with 52 closed unit sales. That means we have a six month supply which isn’t great but is an improvement in the supply/sales rate during the second half of 2025. Sales so far this year point towards an improving condo market despite the headwinds of escalating ownership expenses. The current inventory is still choked with over-priced listings but many of the new listings hitting the market are priced realistically and are selling.

Single family home supply has increased slightly with 70 MLS-listed houses available today. There were just four single family home sales closed in February at prices between $775,000 and $1,200,000, all four in Cocoa Beach. At that pace we have an almost eighteen month supply. Like condos, over-pricing among the current inventory is rife.

Median monthly fee of the closed condos was $725 with a median selling price of $365,000. The MLS tells us that the median time on market for the closed condos was 62 days but a look behind the MLS curtain reveals that 18 of the sold units had inaccurate combined days on market (CDOM) displayed, many of those listings deliberately manipulated by listing agents hoping to deceive and attract potential buyers to an old listing by giving it a “new” appearance. Entirely OK within the MLS rules but in the grey zone of ethical behavior. The actual time on market looks like it was much closer to 100 days than the 62 days the MLS is showing. A couple of units showing as zero days on market actually had been on the market for 285 and 172 days. Among the sold units, nine of them sold for less than the sellers paid, all of them purchased in the last five years.

There were eight direct ocean units closed in the month. Selling prices per square foot ranged from a low of $317/sq.ft. for a 2/2 unit in south Cocoa Beach without a garage that sold in a private sale to $487/sq.ft. for a beautiful and spacious corner at Solana Shores in Cape Canaveral. A side unit (not direct ocean) at The Surf in downtown Cocoa Beach changed hands for $1,062,000 or $600/sq.ft. It sold brand new last year for $1,000,000.

It’s still too early to tell what plants and trees will recover from the freeze but it’s obvious that many tropicals are not coming back. We are probably looking at a no-mango year in Cocoa Beach this year considering the condition of the trees I’ve seen. Same for younger coconut trees. Those who were exposed to the wind during the freeze are struggling if not already dead. We went through this about fifteen years ago and recovered nicely but it took a while. Life goes on.

“War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.” _George Orwell, 1984 These slogans were prominently displayed at the Ministry of Truth.

Shades of Brown

Halfway through February and sales activity so far this year has been surprisingly strong. January was the busiest opening month for condo sales since 2022 by a large margin. There were 46 closed units this January compared to 33 last year, 29 the year before and 32 in 2023. We have had 26 closed condo sales reported so far in the first half of February. Inventory remains steady and has been hovering around 300 condo and townhome units in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral for the last several months. This morning we have 309 units for sale.

Median selling price of the 53 closed units so far in 2026 was $370,000. Average time on market is difficult to decipher because of agent manipulation but was around three to four months for the 53 units. Discounts from original asking price were breathtaking, in one case going as low as 60% of original asking price for a determined seller who held on at a too-high price for over two years before finally accepting reality, pricing accordingly and attracting a fair offer. The mix of units sold was about equally split between oceanfront complexes and everything else. Eight of the sold units closed for less than the sellers paid for them. All eight of those were purchased in the last five years.

The average selling price as a percentage of original asking price was 90% but there were two distinct groups within the average that were notable. The fifteen units that were on the market longest, 150 days or more, averaged 81.5% of original asking price after multiple price drops, several having done eight or more price reductions before finally getting to a price realistic enough to attract a buyer.

The other group, the fifteen units on the market for the least amount of time, less than two weeks, averaged selling for 95% of original asking price, six of them for full asking price. I’ll leave it to the reader to draw conclusions from that.

The average time on market for the remaining inventory of 309 units is almost exactly that of the sold units so far in 2026. If we are to draw anything from the above examination of recent sold activity it’s that those who’ve been on the market for over four months are very likely overpriced and are likely to still be there after the newer, more-realistically priced listings pick off the spring buyers. Sellers, take note. Your time is now and your price matters. Adjust your strategy accordingly if you want to be among the successful.

The amount of dead and dying vegetation in Cocoa Beach is startling. Everywhere one looks is a landscape of brown. The recent freeze with prolonged strong winds really did a number on the trees and bushes. The oaks and native palms were barely affected but everything else is showing signs of damage. Banana trees are always the first to go and that’s expected but it hurts to see entirely brown mango and coconut trees among others. Even the sea grapes took it hard and their dead leaves are dropping and littering the town. Lots of popular tropical palms like foxtails who like a more tropical climate were killed outright and will have to be replaced. The last time I remember a cold event like this was in 2009 or 2010 when I had two coconut trees that I had planted a couple of years earlier. One succumbed to the cold but the other made it and still has a narrow spot on its trunk from that year. It made it through this freeze with only slight impact. The beach cabbage (Scaevola taccada) on the dune behind my house is toast but will not be missed. The adjacent native dune cover will gladly reclaim its spot. Things should be greening again within weeks and we’ll soon forget the brown February and resume landscaping with beautiful tropicals that won’t make it through the next cold event whenever that happens. Humans in the collective are not known for living and learning. 

Speaking of non-natives, the photo at the top is of an Egyptian goose at the Cocoa Beach Country Club. He’s a long way from the Nile Valley and I hope he was somewhere warm during the freeze like our red-headed African agama lizard who I spotted yesterday in the parking lot, as frisky as ever. I wish I could say the same for the dozens of tarpon that perished from the freeze in the lakes of the Cocoa Beach Country Club.

“I see trees of green, red roses too. I see them bloom, for me and you. And I think to myself, what a wonderful world.” Louis Armstrong

The Power of Pricing

For our first progress report of 2026 let’s dive into the details of the fifteen closed condo and townhouse sales in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral so far in the first three weeks of January. There was one off-market sale that was entered in the MLS for comp purposes so I’ll omit that one from our examination.

The fifteen closed sales averaged selling for 85% of their original asking price and were on the market for an average of 157 days. Note that I used the actual days on market rather than the lower manipulated CDOM (combined days on market) number showing on several of the closed listings. The average 85% of original asking price is not a sign of a healthy market but it does hint that more sellers are accepting the fact that their original price expectations were overly optimistic. There is another story hidden within the overall story and it stands out in strong contrast to the averages.

There were five listings that sold in less than 24 days on the market and they averaged 98% of original asking price. Price correctly and sell quickly. It seems an easy concept to understand but it was ignored by two thirds of the sellers who wound up making multiple price drops over months to finally arrive at a price that worked. Without easy access to market stats sellers have to rely on their listing agents to do the homework and advise them on competitive pricing. Knowing the neighbor sold two years ago for $XXX makes for some resistance to today’s reality even though the agent may present more recent comps that suggest that $XXX is no longer competitive. I’ve had many sellers insist on initially listing for a number higher than the comps will justify “just in case”. There have been years when that sometimes worked. We are not currently in one of those periods. Those who hope to sell need to price correctly from the beginning if they want to sell in a reasonable time.

If I eliminate the five listings that priced correctly and sold quickly, the other ten sold listings averaged 79% of original asking price and lingered on the market for an average of 229 days enduring multiple price drops until they finally reached a number the market agreed with. One stubborn seller did eight price drops over 357 days to finally sell for 59% of their original asking price. Another sat on their listing for 429 days and did seven price changes before finally selling for 82% of the original price. I would advise any prospective seller to have their listing agent do a thorough market analysis and to listen to their advice. Buyers are here now and are active. Correctly priced listings are the ones attracting those buyers. Now is the time to act for sellers who want to take advantage of our historically strongest selling season.

“This is the end of the innocence.” _Don Henley 1989

 

Do Not Be Deceived

Games are afoot in the Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral real estate market. If one looks for the time on market of the current condo and townhouse inventory of 314 units, the median appears to be 95 days. Not great but not historically awful. Peeking at the listing history of the newest listings tells a different story. About a third of all new listings within the last forty days have had their listings manipulated to reset the Cumulative Days On Market (CDOM), almost all of them with the intention/hope of deceiving buyers and their agents. I would advise all prospective buyers and their agents to search the listing history of any potential target property to get the true history of the listing. There are several listings that were cancelled around the end of the year and reentered into the MLS in January with zero CDOM and higher prices than the just-cancelled listing. Sellers and their agents believe that their negotiating strength is greater with a property that appears to be a new listing than with one that has obviously been sitting on the market for a long time. Several of the listings that have low CDOMs have, in some cases, been on the market for over a year. The true time on market is likely to influence the price of an offer so the selling parties justify their ethical fluidity with the hope of a better eventual selling price.

The number of condo listings that are being offered at less than the seller's purchase price is increasing but is greatly outnumbered by the overpriced listings whose sellers remain in denial about the reality of current market conditions and selling prices. As I mentioned in an earlier post, many who purchased between 2021 and 2024 are finding out that selling their unit and realizing a profit or even just breaking even is not possible. We continue to see lower selling prices in many of our complexes and the units that are selling are the ones that are priced in line with the current reality.

I would advise all potential buyers to research recent selling prices and listing history of any possible targets. Don’t be swayed by the fact that several similar units in the same building are all asking similar high prices. Asking prices are just that, asking. They are in many cases unrelated to the reality of the selling prices of units that have actually closed. As always, knowledge is power and in the purchase of a condo or townhouse in our market it can be worth tens of thousands of dollars. Do your homework.

“The plural of anecdote is not data.” unknown

 

Cocoa Beach SF Home Sales - 2025

The market for single family homes in 2025 was distinctly different from the condo market. It was a busy year for this market segment with a total of 113 homes sold, 98 of them in Cocoa Beach. Thirty four homes sold for at least a million dollars with a highest price paid of $2.58 MM for a 4920 square foot direct ocean home south of downtown Cocoa Beach. Highest price paid for a non-waterfront house was $1.625 MM for a beautiful, brand new 4/5 a half block from the ocean in south Cocoa Beach. Median price paid was $753,000 with a low of $325,000 for a cute but tiny 2/1 in Cape Canaveral four blocks from the beach.

Almost half, 49, of the homes sold for cash and median time on market was 61 days. We entered 2026 with just over sixty houses for sale in a range between $365,000 and $3.5 MM. Median time on the market for the 63 listings active this morning is 87 days. There doesn’t seem to be as many headwinds for our SF home market as the condo market which continues to struggle. Many condo purchases are discretionary being bought as second homes or investments and that market is reactionary to consumer sentiment and the macro economic landscape. The majority of SF home buyers are buying for residence and less likely to have the luxury of postponing their purchase while waiting for more favorable economic conditions. I expect sales of homes in 2026 to follow the healthy trend established in 2025 with a similar sales rate and stable pricing.

The condo market is facing a much different year and I expect slower sales and lower prices for that market in 2026. I’m not sure what it would take to reinvigorate prospective condo buyers considering the already high and rising condo fees other than drastically lower prices. How much lower remains a mystery as the bulk of sellers so far have been unwilling (or unable if they bought in the last few years) to accept that asking prices must compensate higher holding costs if they hope to sell. The reckoning looms.

On that note, beware predictions based on countywide trends. Many real estate sites and salespeople will spin positive forecasts using statistics from Brevard County as a whole while conveniently not mentioning the fact that some market segments behave counter to the whole, our beach condo market being Exhibit A. Treat with suspicion any claim that rhymes with “now is a great time to buy” especially if it’s coming from someone who will profit from your purchase.

I hope the half dozen or so home buyers who closed on their new homes in the long-stalled development in south Cocoa Beach four and five years ago will finally get a chance to move into their new homes this year. I’m not optimistic that will happen. There has been little progress on the homes under construction over the last few years and none have been completed. Have those buyers who closed five years ago been paying property taxes on their unfinished homes? Mortgage payments? What’s going on? Anyone? I would love to know the whole story of what’s going on there.

“There’s a distinct difference in rationalizing and being rational.” unknown 

Condo Wrap 2025

The numbers are in and it’s official. With a total of 471 condo and townhouse units sold, 2025 was the slowest year for condo sales in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral since 2009 when 420 units changed hands. Just four years ago in 2021, 863 units were sold. Inventory during 2025 continued its three year rapid expansion from the low in 2022 and climbed to the highest supply we’ve seen in twelve years. In 2021 and 2022 average inventory ranged between 45 and 55 units and many complexes saw record prices paid. Several units purchased during that time have since been resold at a loss, at least one at less than half the price paid in 2022. Some others who bought then have been trying unsuccessfully to sell at prices substantially below their purchase price. This year we averaged around 300 units for sale at any one time with a brief blip up to just over 400 in April. We are beginning 2026 with just over 300 units for sale at prices between $59,000 and $1,490,000 with a median asking price of $347,000.

Thanks to 21 closings at the brand new luxury building, The Surf, in downtown Cocoa Beach, we had 29 condo sales of a million dollars or more with a penthouse unit at The Surf setting the 2025 record for highest priced condo sale at $3.15 MM. Most of these units were reserved pre-construction between 2020 and 2022 when our existing inventory bottomed. I suspect the number of sales and prices paid would have been very different had those units not been offered until 2025. There are only five units offered this morning in our two cities for over a million.

The median price paid in 2025 was $352,500. Median time on market was 84 days. We saw units at some complexes selling at prices radically lower than two and three years ago. Canaveral Towers, for example, saw average selling prices in 2025 from 25% to 30% below the average prices paid in 2021 to 2023. There were similar value drops at many other large complexes like The Diplomat in Cocoa Beach. Some other smaller complexes where there were no sales during the mania years like Boardwalk in downtown Cocoa Beach appear to have been unaffected with prices paid this year similar to prices paid in 2022 when the last unit was sold. Many others had no sales during the year and have no way of knowing what price the current market might be willing to deliver.

Uncertainty seems to be the overriding force in our condo market as we enter the new year. We can only speculate about what our spring “busy” season will bring but many seller’s fingers are crossed hoping that the trend that persisted through 2025 will reverse. I am seeing nothing yet to support that hope.

Condo fees are at an all-time high having increased rapidly over the last two years. Over 20% of current listings have a monthly fee of $900 a month or higher with a median for the total condo inventory of $700 a month. The median monthly fee of the sold units in 2022 was $475 with only five of them over $900. Higher fees are a large part of the issues fueling the slowdown. Will buyers eventually make peace with high fees? Are the absent buyers waiting on the sidelines for better prices or have they given up on purchasing a beach condo altogether because of higher expenses and general uncertainty? We may never know. It should be an interesting year.

On a positive note, Port Canaveral resumed its position as the world’s busiest cruise port serving 8.5 million passengers in 2025. It is now the home port of eighteen ships among seven major cruise lines. Unfortunately, those passengers don’t appear to be buying condos.

I’ll follow with another report in a few days with a rundown of the single-family home market which had an entirely different 2025 than did the condo market. Cheers and Happy New Year.

“Keep moving. It’s hard for old age to hit a moving target.” _Joan Rivers

The Home Stretch

The residential real estate market in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral is coasting in slow motion towards year end. Twenty two condo units and two single family homes have closed so far in the first half of December continuing the slowdown in sales that began in 2022. In 2021, the busiest year on record, 863 condo units closed. We are on track to sell about half that number this year, the lowest number of condos sold since 2009. Note that our numbers this year were helped by the closings of 21 new units at The Surf condo downtown that were contracted years ago.

The pace of sales has been cut in half in just four years while at the same time inventory has expanded by five times. Inventory has vacillated at around 300 units most of the year and we’re ending the year with virtually the same number of properties for sale as we began. The median time on market for the current inventory is around 100 days. Median condo fee across all price ranges is $700 monthly with about a quarter of listings at $900 or higher per month. Higher fees, taxes and insurance are straining the math that buyers use to justify purchasing a beach condo.

December 31 is the final deadline (twice extended) for all affected condo associations to be in compliance with inspections and structural reserves. Those who used the extensions to indulge their procrastination have until New Year’s Day to begin funding the new reserves. With everyone’s fees finally including that funding, we will enter the spring 2026 season with a fairly level playing field. Rapidly escalating fees have been the turd in the punchbowl of the condo market for four years and that factor is front and center now as we head into the new year with the majority of associations in compliance. The condo market of 2026 in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral is likely to be difficult for all participants. Buyers will have to come to terms with the the math of higher expenses and sellers will be forced to compete with their sharpest tool, asking price. I expect slower sales and lower prices for condos in 2026. It took longer than I expected for the condo legislation to noticeably affect the market but the wait is over and the condo reckoning is upon us. Best of luck to all participants. Those who are aware of and adapt to the new reality are those who will be successful in this market.

“Market forces have a way of cutting to the chase rather quickly.” _J.B. Pritzker 

We Have a Situation

Sunrise Thanksgiving morning in south Cocoa Beach

Our condo market is in trouble. The trouble started with Covid but is just now becoming apparent. The number of units sold in 2021 was the highest since I began keeping records in 2004. There were 863 closed condo sales in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral that year. Prices had not yet returned to 2005-2006 levels for most units but there was a strong uptick in selling prices as demand climbed following the Covid lockdowns of 2020. Inventory had been in a broad decline since 2006 and bottomed out in 2022 adding fuel to the demand/supply imbalance. In April of 2022 there were less than 40 total units for sale in our two cities and buyers exceeded sellers by a large margin. Most new listings sold within days. Multiple offers were common and the legislation in response to the collapse of Champlain Towers South in June 2021 had not yet been signed into law.

Following the exuberance of 2021 and 2022, inventory began rapidly climbing at the same time prices began leveling out. The legislation requiring condos to establish a fully-funded structural reserve fund was signed into law in June 2023 with a deadline for compliance of December 31, 2024. As a result condo fees exploded as condo associations were forced to increase them in order to fund the new reserves and in some cases levy special assessments to repair existing structural issues. These fee increases didn’t happen overnight and in the meantime enthusiastic buyers continued to buy condos.

2025 sales shown through late November

By December 2024 the inventory of condo units had climbed to 298 units and most condos had raised fees and demand had cooled. Many sellers were clinging to expectations of the previous years’ selling prices but buyers were not sharing those expectations. Instead of $550 a month fees and a 3% mortgage like a few years earlier, a buyer was now looking at over $1000 a month fees and a 7% mortgage for the same unit. Justifying a beach condo was no longer possible for many buyers and they suspended their search. Sellers, on the other hand, clung to their visions of 2022 and refused to accept that the market was changing. Many of those sellers are still on the market although some are beginning to realize that the prices of recent years are not realistic in this market.

There are 30 units for sale right now asking less than the sellers paid in 2021, 2022 or 2023. There are another five asking within 2% of their purchase price and nine units who have curbed their enthusiasm with price drops between 23% and 40%. The most extreme example at the moment is a unit at 60% of the original asking price. This seller was asking $2.1 MM in 2024 and is now hoping to get $1.275 MM. The reality checks are not confined to the upper price range with listings like a unit in a riverfront complex that was asking $240,000 a year ago now down to $160,000.

Inventory has inched back up to 313 total units for sale this morning with a median time on market of 93 days, 81 of those units for sale over six months. Everyone is hoping for a strong selling season in the spring but the friction for buyers isn’t going to disappear with the arrival of the snowbirds. Higher fees, insurance and mortgage rates will persist. Of the units that have closed so far this month, the majority sold for large discounts to the original asking price and four of them sold for a loss. One unit stands out for seller optimism, a bad bet and, ultimately, capitulation. First listed three and a half years ago for $1,299,000, the seller decided to rent for a year after failing to sell, probably hoping for a better market a year later. After a year and $36,000 of rent collected they relisted and found a buyer for $575,000. Anyone hoping to sell needs to accept the reality of this changed market and think hard before making a bet like renting for a year in hopes of a better future market or clinging to yesterday’s price. Unless we have the busiest December of the last twenty years, this year’s total condo sales will continue our five year trend of declining number of units sold.

I hope everyone had a happy, stress-free Thanksgiving. For those who are here this weekend the Cocoa Beach Art Show kicks off tonight with a street party. Live music on the main stage on Minutemen Cswy. begins at 5:30 with FlowMotion followed by the always-outstanding FUNPIPE at 8:30. Hope to see y’all there. Congrats to the handful of people who won tickets to see Benson Boone at the Rocket Garden at the Space Center Saturday night. Enjoy the backflips.

“Sometimes I’m scared of being Ozzie Osbourne but it could have been worse. I could have been Sting.” _Ozzie Osbourne

Houses vs Condos

The moonrises over the ocean this week have been spectacular.

I mentioned in the last post that different market segments can behave very differently at the same time and used the Cocoa Beach single-family market and condo market as examples. Let’s dive into the details and see just how differently they are performing.

We typically have about five to six times the number of condos for sale at any one moment as houses. This morning there are 64 MLS-listed homes for sale in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral and 299 condo units. During the month of October, 15 homes and 34 condo units closed. That means that we have about a 17 week supply of homes versus around 35 weeks for condos.

Median time on market for the sold homes in October was 55 days. For condos it was 151 days. As I mentioned in the Market Snapshot post, time on market is heavily manipulated so the real time to sell is longer than the MLS shows. More than a quarter of the sold properties, both homes and condos, took longer to sell than shown in the MLS but the fact that most condos are taking about three times as long to sell as homes is accurate.

Median selling price for homes was $1,012,000 and $335,000 for condos. Cash buyers dominated the market with two thirds of condo buyers and 60% of single-family home purchasers paying cash. That trend is likely to continue. There do not seem to be any reasons to expect market conditions to change until after New Years when we typically see an uptick in new listings and sales activity in both market segments. Until then we can expect more of the same absent some external macro event. Good luck to all participants. Knowing what’s going on in your market segment will go a long way towards success whether buying or selling.

Reminder to sellers to check your MLS listings for accuracy and completeness. The 15 condo listings on our MLS today that have incorrect or missing condo names may not be included in auto-search emails for buyers who are looking for a unit in a specific condo. If there are prospective buyers with an auto-search set up for Sandcastles, they are not going to get an email about a new listing there if the listing agent’s assistant spelled the name as Sand Castles.

Anyone willing to venture a guess on when/if the development of new houses on the site of Joyce’s Trailer Park in south Cocoa Beach will have its first completed structure? The MLS tells me that ten of them closed, all for cash, at prices between $970,000 and $1,495,000, between 2019 and 2022. Some of these closings happened before the slabs had even been poured and now they have been sitting at various stages of completion for years with sporadic activity and not a single one yet completed. I would love to hear from anyone with any insight into what happened or is happening there.

“A sane person to an insane society must appear insane.” _Kurt Vonnegut 

Beware the Market Snapshot

Typical crowded beach in south Cocoa Beach last week

I receive quite a few marketing direct mail and email blasts from real estate agents, mortgage brokers, title companies and such that include market statistics in their sales pitches. Market statistics are provided by most local Realtor associations to their members for use in marketing. They are most commonly presented (in my experience) as a market wide snapshot demonstrating the health and direction of the local market. All good and I imagine this might be meaningful in some concentrated, homogenous markets but in our 72 mile long county with many distinct and separated cities and communities an overall “market snapshot” is worse than meaningless. It’s misleading. The market viewed as a whole may suggest a different reality than the specific market niche one may be selling or hoping to buy in. Those using these stats rarely mention this. It’s marketing after all. The temperature of the Palm Bay single family home market has very little to do with the health of the beachside condo market. In fact, the one and two story, non-waterfront beachside condo market has little in common with the oceanfront condo market just as the Cocoa Beach single-family home market often moves counter to our condo market. Beware the market snapshot.

Condo inventory in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral has increased slightly with 298 total units for sale as of this morning. The median time on market shows as 112 days but that is misleading because of the way that the MLS calculates combined days on market. The listings that gave up on selling last year and rented for a few months hoping for a market improvement can come back on the market now as a brand new listing with zero combined days on market. Same holds true for a listing with a clever listing agent who cancels and relists to get a new MLS number. There are many of both types of these listings in the current inventory making the time on market appear less than it really is.

A total of 37 units have accepted a contract so far in October. The median time on market indicated by the MLS was 131 days but a look at the relisted units among them like those mentioned above reveal the actual time to sell to be much longer.

Reality is starting to set in for many sellers with overly optimistic expectations. Among the 37 units contracted so far in October a few stand out for their extreme price reductions that produced results.

• Oceanfront unit - original asking price $650,000. Asking when buyer found, $499,000.

• Oceanfront unit - original asking price $439,900. Asking when buyer found, $349,000.

• Oceanfront unit - original asking price $1.1 MM. Closed for $880,000.

• Riverfront unit - original asking price $595,000. Asking when buyer found, $410,000.

• Oceanfront unit - original asking price $700,000. Asking when buyer found, $499,900.

• Oceanfront unit - original asking price $549,000. Asking when buyer found, $399,900.

• Riverfront unit - original asking price $364,900. Asking when buyer found, $284,500.

• Oceanfront unit - original asking price $439,900. Asking when buyer found, $349,000.

• Riverfront unit - original asking price $470,000. Closed for $311,000.

And the most extreme of the reality checks this month; a seller of an oceanfront unit who was originally asking $1.3 MM with no luck even after several large price drops over the course of two years decided last year to let the listing expire and rent the unit. They came back on the market this month at an asking price of $599,000 and found a buyer quickly. A reality check of over $700,000 and a cautionary tale for those who may be thinking of pulling their listing to wait for a more favorable market. Are you feeling lucky?

Some of the 37 units sold for or will close for less than the seller paid for the unit. In addition to these I’m also starting to see new listings of units that were purchased in the last three years or so that are back on the market with a starting price of less than the price previously paid. This may have more to do with substantially increased condo fees over the last three years than to overall market sentiment but it’s certainly worth paying attention to as it’s not something we’re used to. Markets don’t correct overnight but they usually give hints. Whether this is a hint or a temporary aberration remains to be seen. I’ll continue to pay attention.

“Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.” ___Warren Buffet

Distant Storms - Fewer Condos

This post first appeared at  larrystake.substack.com on October 1.

As I write this, hurricanes Humberto and Imelda are moving away to the northeast well offshore following the general track of their older siblings this season. Since early August there have been constant, overlapping long-period swells from passing distant storms gracing our shore. That’s made for an active late summer for Brevard surfers without the attendant stress of a possible landfall but not so great for surf fishing during the fall mullet run. The relief of watching an approaching storm start its northward turn away from us is a shared joy for all, surfer or not.

Our residential real estate market is firmly into the slower fall season. The MLS is reporting a total of 27 closed condo and townhouse units and five single family homes in the month of September. As always, that number is likely to increase slightly as tardy listing agents get around to closing their sold listings. Average time on the market for the sold condos was 119 days and not a single sold unit received their original asking price. One sale of an oceanfront unit, closed for 73% its original asking price a year ago. That was a prolonged and probably stressful reality check for the seller. Just slightly less than half of the sold units closed for cash with no mortgage.

Highest sold price was $1.235 MM for a 4th floor direct ocean corner 3 BR, 3.5 BA in a 17 year old building in south Cocoa Beach while the median sold price was $305,000.

In contradiction to the statewide trend of increasing supply, the condo and townhouse inventory in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral has continued its steady decline from a high of 405 units in late April to just 282 units for sale this morning, the first day of October. Average time on market for those 282 units is 117 days with almost a third of them already over six months without a buyer. Our slow season has traditionally lasted until the end of January when sales usually pick up again so those folks may have to wait even longer to find their buyer unless they are prepared to compete with the handful of sellers who are priced to sell. Until January we can expect more of the same slow activity barring some market-affecting macro event. Buyers, know what you’re looking for and know your target property’s fair value. Expecting a huge discount off asking price just because the market is slow is foolish. Expecting a discount because a seller is overpriced is reasonable but a low offer stands a much better chance of success if it can be justified by relevant comparable sales to support that offer. [Relevant is important as is the plural, “sales”.] Be smart whether you’re buying or selling and pay attention to the market. It is almost always right.

“Demand and supply are the opposite extremes of the beam… the price is the point of equilibrium, where the momentum of the one ceases, and that of the other begins.” – Jean-Baptiste Say

Season Opener

Venus with Jupiter hovering above floating together over the palm trees at sunrise in south Cocoa Beach.

This post was first published on Sept. 1 at larrystake.substack.com

Today, September 1, marks the reopening of snook season on the east coast of Florida. The Southwest Florida season will reopen on October 1. As long as the surf cooperates these tasty fish can be caught from the beach anywhere in Cape Canaveral or Cocoa Beach as they shadow the abundant schools of migrating mullet and pogies (menhaden). One fish per day per person between 28” and 32” can be harvested. Be prepared to catch other fish feeding on the same schools of bait like Spanish mackerel, bluefish, jack crevalle, ladyfish, sharks and the occasional giant tarpon. When conditions are favorable, this is the most exciting time of the year for surf fishing.

Real estate sales during August were slow with 32 condos and 9 single family home sales closed during the month in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. It was the slowest month of the year so far. Condo inventory continues to shrink with a total of 309 MLS-listed condo and townhome units for sale this morning. Single family home supply remains steady with 71 homes actively for sale. Two thirds of the sold homes sold for over a million dollars with only one sale below a half million. One condo exceeded the million dollar sold price with a median selling price of all sold units of $387,000. Median monthly condo fee of the closed condos was $790.

If historical patterns hold, the four-month period from October through January is likely to bring slower activity compared to earlier this year. The reduced inventory will benefit prospective sellers by limiting competition, but it is offset by that seasonal decline in buyer demand. Sellers who know which listings they are competing with and who adjust their strategy accordingly will be better positioned for success. Good luck to all and if the process becomes tiring, take a morning off to hit the beach and try for a snook.

I hope the early risers among the readers, like myself, have been enjoying the spectacle of a bright Venus in the morning sky as it has been racing towards the far side of the Sun all summer. Its relative position to the much slower Jupiter in the early morning sky has widened drastically over the last month and it experienced its brightest point in this half of its revolution (from our perspective) just last week. We will lose sight of it in the next few months as its position in the sky gets closer to the sun and it rises later in the morning. It will reach superior conjunction on the far side of the sun in January and then, when it reemerges, will become visible in the evening sky as it completes this trip around the sun and is once again approaching Earth. One doesn’t need a telescope to understand that some of the objects in the night sky are very much closer than others.

I spotted another red-headed agama lizard yesterday, this time at my office in downtown Cocoa Beach. Their northward invasion has progressed far faster than I expected.

“The sun, with all those planets revolving around it and dependent on it, can still ripen a bunch of grapes as if it had nothing else in the universe to do.” _Galileo Galilei

 

Back to School

A SpaceX Falcon 9 first stage after being unloaded at Port Canaveral from the drone ship.

This post first appeared at larrystake.substack.com on August 11.

I will keep this update short. On this first day of school we enter our historical slow season which extends until January when our snowbirds begin arriving in numbers. Until then expect continued slow/slower activity in our residential real estate market.

Condo sales in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral in the month of July stuck to their slow pace with 41 closed unit sales compared to 50 in July 2024. Our bright spot, single-family homes, remained strong with eleven closed sales compared to seven last July. Median time on market for condos was 94 days and 55 days for SF homes. About half of all sales in both categories were cash deals.

Condo inventory continues to shrink with a total of 332 condo and townhome units for sale this morning while single family inventory climbed to 70 homes. The number of condo units on the market at any time in our area is typically around five to six times the number of single family homes reflecting the actual makeup of residential properties in our two cities. At the moment the condo segment of our market is under pressure from substantially higher condo fees, higher master insurance premiums and ongoing concrete projects in many complexes. Condos and SF homes alike are feeling the pressure of near-7% mortgage rates.

The median monthly condo fee of the units currently for sale is $718 per month. That number would be much higher if not for the units with lower fees in one and two story buildings not subject to the new regulatory oversight. Compare that $718 median monthly fee to the $425 median of the sold units just four years ago in July 2021 when mortgage rates were hovering at 3% compared to just under 7% today. Someone buying a $500,000 condo today with a 20% down, 30 year mortgage can expect to pay around $3300 a month for mortgage payment and median condo fees (not including property taxes). A buyer who bought a $500,000 unit in July of 2021 would have been looking at around $2100 a month. That big an increase in so short a time adds friction to the process.

Hopeful sellers would be wise to reexamine their asking prices if they aren’t getting any action and adjust now if necessary. There may have been comparable sales since listing that would suggest a lower price. Those sellers that are aware of their competition and who outcompete them are the ones who’ll find success.

Buyers and their agents would be well-advised to stay abreast of recent sales so they can focus on listings with reasonable asking prices. Our inventory is riddled with overpriced listings but it only requires a little homework to be able to recognize those. It is time well spent. Be aware to be successful in this market.

They’re here. We’ve been hearing reports of the red-headed African agama lizards from our neighbors in Satellite Beach and further south but I have not heard of any in Cocoa Beach yet. I have seen one in south Cocoa Beach twice in the last couple of weeks so they (or at least one) have arrived. If anyone else has seen an agama in Cocoa Beach I'd love to know where you saw it. The battle for supremacy of the invasive lizards between these large and fast lizards and the already well-established and aggressive curly tails should be epic. I watched a big curly tail chase a full-grown squirrel across a parking lot so don’t write them off. The one below was my constant back porch companion for a long time a few years ago. 

“We turn our experience and your money into your experience and our money.” the subtext to all financial advisory pitches