April: 7th inning report

The 22nd of April and we have had 22 closed condo sales so far in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral according to our somewhat-lagging MLS. As a continuation of the dominant trend of lower price range activity, seven sales were for less than $100,000 and none exceeded $500,000. In a departure from another trend, only three of the closed sales were short sales. The sweet spot for prices right now is in the $100,000 to $200,000 bracket with half of the sales landing between $114,000 and $205,000.

The two highest prices, $465,000 and $500,000, were both at the bank-ordered sale of Ocean Club in north Cocoa Beach. The numbers look good on paper, $185 and $160 per square foot for almost new construction. The reality is that the building sits on a flag lot back away from the ocean with the big pink Coral Seas building to the east blocking a good portion of the ocean view. Looking at other sales with impeded views, the buyers of a Solana Shores unit got the deal of the month so far in that category at $136 per square foot for a nine year old 3/3 in that established, untroubled complex.

Another contender for deal of the month was a six year old, top floor direct Banana River, Solana River 2/2 with 2055 square feet that sold for $205,000 or $100 per square foot. Icing on the cake was furnishings included. Incidentally, $205,000 is exactly half the price it sold for in 2005.

A top floor, original condition, side ocean view 2/2 with private garage at Sand Pebbles in Cape Canaveral closed for $165,000.

A very nice, upgraded 5th floor direct ocean Windrush 2/2 with 1271 square feet and garage sold furnished for $300,000.

A small (1125 square feet) very nice, remodeled top floor (5th) Sea Oats direct ocean corner 2/2 with garage sold for $275,000.

A foreclosed 2nd floor A building Mystic Vistas 3/2 saw the lowest price there since 2002 when it closed for $179,771.

One of the newer Villages of Seaport 2/2 units closed as a short sale for shocking $84,000 this week. This unit sold in 2005 for $230,000. That's not a haircut. It's a shave. Of note is that this short sale closed in ten weeks between contract and closing table. Good job to the listing agent.

Inventory is pretty much at the same levels of the last two months. Condo mortgages, while still available, have become even harder to obtain with far less lenders willing to loan. Some buildings have become practically cash-only with no one willing to write a mortgage. I am seeing more offers of seller financing.

MLS inventory April 22 , 2010 Cocoa Beach & Cape Canaveral

Condos, all prices_____604
over $500,000_________79
Single family homes___129
over $500,000_________40

"Cold weather makes people stupid and that's a fact."
______Early Grayce (Brad Pitt)_______Kalifornia

The "other" Cocoa Beach

Looking north towards the Cocoa Beach city limits.

As I was driving north on A1A through Cocoa Beach this past Monday I was feeling a vague sense of well-being that suddenly gelled with realization. The traffic of the last month had disappeared and the roads were uncrowded again. We sometimes forget during the spring season how peaceful Cocoa Beach can be at other times. This year was particularly busy when we had the perfect storm of a shuttle launch the day after Easter.

We have several distinct seasons in Cocoa Beach. The year begins with our winter visitors arriving in ever increasing numbers peaking in March. By that month we have the largest number of snowbirds, the visiting baseball teams and their families here for games at the Cocoa Expo and some spring breakers. Throw in the Easter Surf Festival at the Pier and a shuttle launch and it can get busy in the north part of town. Once past Easter things drift back towards normalcy. April and May are typically slow months as we are between the seasons of longer-staying snowbirds and summer vacationers. As soon as schools begin letting out for the summer, we begin receiving vacationers who are typically here for shorter periods than the snowbirds who often stay for months. Our summer guests tend to be here for only a week or two. Come first of September and the summer guests leave en masse and our little town gets downright quiet.

September and October are magic times with the least number of people in town, the water still bath-warm and the weather (barring a tropical storm) perfect. The mullet run begins along the beach in September and beach fishing is the best of the year. This is also the best time of year for surf with our beaches receiving clean swell from every tropical system that passes by. We stay uncrowded right through New Years when the the cycle begins anew.

Speaking of the crowds of this past month, there were parts of Cocoa Beach that remained quiet, uncrowded and peaceful during the peak of the action on Easter weekend. I'm talking about the "other" Cocoa Beach. Many visitors and residents alike do not know about the other Cocoa Beach. The area and beaches in the north end around Cocoa Beach Surf Company, Ron Jons and the Pier form many people's image of our town as does the Minutemen Causeway beach on weekends. As fun as these areas can be there is another side to our town. As one travels south from Minutemen, the shops and motels disappear and the other Cocoa Beach begins to take shape. Here are neighborhoods and the people on the beaches are primarily residents and the occasional clued-in visitor taking advantage of the limited street end parking at the beach. This other town changes once again in the magic strip of south Cocoa Beach that begins at the southern fork of A1A. For a little less than a mile here, there is a narrow strip of land with the Banana River to the west and the Atlantic to the east. Our mailing address is still Cocoa Beach but we are outside the city limits. All public parking disappears and there is the lowest population density of any oceanfront area in Cocoa Beach. A perfect storm of another kind, a formula for perpetually peaceful uncrowded beaches. I love that other Cocoa Beach.

“Insanity in individuals is the exception. In groups, parties, peoples and times, it is the rule.”

Beyond Good and Evil
– Friederich Nietzsche –

One week in April

The shuttle Discovery ascending just before dawn on Monday above a deserted A1A. The crowds are starting to wind down now with the main snowbird season ending and Easter in the rear-view. By next week the streets and beaches will be mostly quiet again.

Water warmed up rapidly late last week and the cobia run was on. I scored an epic day Monday when we saw over 20 fish and landed four hefty ones for the dinner table. Surf temp is in the comfortable low 70s now. Notice how much colder the beaches just north of the Cape are this time of year.



Sea surface temperature graphic courtesy of
Rutgers Institute of Marine and Coastal Science.


The Canadian dollar has been on a tear lately reaching par with the US dollar on Wednesday, the first time since May 30, 2008. It hit a low of .77 last March before beginning this climb back to even parity.



After a disappointing February for condo sales, March set a record with 50 MLS-listed condos and townhouses closed in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral, the busiest March since 2006.


Mortgage rates have continued their steep increase and are now firmly above 5% for 30 year fixed rate loans. One month trend below.




"Science has never drummed up quite as effective a tranquilizing agent as a sunny spring day." ___W. Earl Hall

The rest of the story

The recent rains have ushered spring into my front yard with these wildflowers..

I promised an interesting update on a failed short sale that I detailed in my March 4 post, "One step forward, two steps back" . Here is my description from that earlier post;

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Another short sale fell apart this week when the bank (Wachovia) returned a "must-have" net higher than their year-ago number. This particular property was first listed in the MLS as a short sale in January 2009 for $119,000. After no showings for two months the price was dropped to $99,000 and an offer of $99,000 was received and submitted to the bank. Two and a half months later the bank returned with a price of $124,000. That buyer went away and the MLS price was raised to the approved price, $124,000. Five months later a bank representative called the listing office to ask what needed to be done to move the property. The listing broker suggested a price drop to put it back in line with the comps. Price was dropped to $99,000 but it received no action and, with the bank rep's blessing, the price was dropped again to $89,000. A full asking price offer was received and submitted with expectations of fast approval. Response was faster this time with the geniuses at Wachovia responding four weeks later with a must-have net of $117,000 which would mean a selling price of over $130,000 to pay off the back taxes, condo assessments and closing costs.
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And now for the rest of the story. The buyer, of course, walked away at the bank's "must-have" price. The unit went to foreclosure the following week and Wachovia sold the unit to an investor, having just one week earlier turned down $89,000 cash. To add irony to incompetence, the investor immediately sold the unit to the original buyer for the rejected $89,000, obviously at a profit. The buyer winds up with a good property at a good price, the investor makes a quick, easy profit and Wachovia throws an eight inch stack of new $20 bills out the window. That, ladies and gentlemen, is a glimpse into the madness that prevails in short sales these days.

"Welcome to my nightmare. I think you're going to like it. There'll be some more when you come down."____Alice Cooper

March preview

Temperatures have finally climbed back into the pleasant range with high 70s predicted every day for the next week. That trend and a southerly wind should finally bring the cobia run which has been delayed as long this year as anyone can remember. The crowds in town are thick as March is the peak of the spring season but that will change rapidly after Easter as the snowbirds begin their northerly migration in force and students head back to school.

As of this morning there are 87 short sales and foreclosures with offers in negotiation with the lenders in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. There have been 35 closed distressed sales in the two cities since January 1. The MLS shows 95 active short sales this morning at prices between $22,000 and $699,000 and 40 foreclosed properties offered at prices from $20,000 to $599,900.

We've had 29 condos and townhomes closed so far in March and four single family homes, two of those direct ocean houses for $875,000 and $960,000. Five of the condo sales were for less than $40,000 and only one was for more than $285,000, a 2nd floor Meridian that sold for $550,000 or $110,000 less than it was bought for in 2007.

Sales of note included;

The nicest unit in Cape Winds, a totally remodeled 2nd floor NE corner, 2/2 went for $250,000.

An 8th floor direct ocean 2/2 next door at Canaveral Towers also sold for $250,000.

A top floor (5th) Puerto del Rio 3/2 closed for $189,000. It sold new four years ago for $253,500.

A direct river Pebble Cove 1st floor 3/2 went for $135,000.

A very nice south Cocoa Beach Sutton Place 2/2 corner with a peek of the ocean sold for $130,000.

Inventory has increased slightly this month. For anyone looking for a special waterfront house, the best located (my opinion) single-family riverfront house in Cocoa Beach has come on the market this month. It is a walled and gated compound sitting on five lots with 132' of open Banana River in south Cocoa Beach with exotic mature tropical landscaping. The river is 3.5 miles wide out the back door and the ocean is right across the street.

MLS inventory Mar 25 , 2010 Cocoa Beach & Cape Canaveral

Condos, all prices_____610
over $500,000_________77
Single family homes___133
over $500,000_________43

If it suddenly ended tomorrow
I could somehow adjust to the fall.
Good times and riches and son of a bitches
I've seen more than I can recall.
__________Jimmy Buffett

Tracking the decline

North jetty, Sebastian Inlet

Another Cocoa Beach, Four Seasons non-waterfront unit with garage closed last week for $110,000. This particular unit had been on the market for a year, priced well above the comps until right before Christmas when reality finally set in and the price was dropped to a number in line with the market. With several sales every year of these particular units in that popular complex, I thought it would make a good subject for a micro review of the history of the decline. I have restricted this review to sales of non-waterfront units in Four Seasons with identical floorplans and garage.

Looking back to 2004 (MLS sales only), the year before peak prices for these units, there was one sale for $188,900. The market was red hot at the time and prices were notching up on all property types with every subsequent transaction. The next year, 2005, the peak of the mania, saw four sales of these units; $195,000, $215,000, $220,000 and $222,500 (the all-time high). Prices remained strong through 2006 even though there were subtle signs that the party had ended. There were four sales that year; $198,000, $200,000, $200,000 and $215,000.

The fading of the bloom was becoming obvious to most by 2007 when only one of these units closed for a shocking $159,000. Cautious buyers re-entered the market in 2008 and purchased three units for $150,000, $159,000 and $165,000. Long-time owners were relieved that the decline appeared to have abated with a year of steady prices. The joy evaporated when two units sold early in 2009 for $132,000 and $133,500.

The seller of the unit I mentioned in the beginning listed his unit early in 2009 for $157,900 shortly after the two sales in the low $130s. It sat there along with several other over-priced units for the remaining nine months of 2009 with no action in the complex. The sellers began lowering their asking prices late in the year and 2010 hit the ground running with three closed sales as of today, March 23. The highest price was $130,000 for an above-average, totally remodeled unit and the other two went for $103,000 and $110,000, the lowest prices in the complex since 2002 and only about double their brand new price in 1980. There is only one of these units actively for sale today, listed 20 days ago and hoping for $135,000. Hope springs eternal.

"If only. Those must be the two saddest words in the world."
________Meredith Lackey

Eye candy

Four thousand words for your viewing pleasure.






"What's another word for Thesaurus?" __Stephen Wright

Spring forward

Dune gaillardia enjoying the sunshine in my backyard.

It's March 14 and the February MLS numbers are in. The number of closed MLS sales of condos in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral was disappointing following our record January, the best since 2005. The Cocoa Beach MLS reports 25 closed condo and townhouse sales in February in the two cities compared to 32 in February 2009. This is the first year in the last six that February condo sales did not exceed January's (see chart below). There were seven single-family home sales in the month. While contingent and pending listings remain at a very high level, the low inventory and the high number of failed short sales will probably contribute to a slow year for sales.



Sales for the month ranged from $22,500 for a tiny but nice 1/1 Beach Club unit in Cape Canaveral to a new 3000 square foot Ocean Paradise 5th floor corner in south Cocoa Beach that went for $900,000. The little Beach Club unit sold for 24% of the price it sold for in 2005. Other sales of note included;

A foreclosed Oaks 2/2 unit in Cape Canaveral that sold for $60,500.

A short sale Portside Villas 2nd floor, 2/2 in Cape Canaveral that closed for $88,000. Sold new in 2006 for $234,900.

A short sale Royal Mansions 1 bedroom in Cape Canaveral sold for $95,000. It last sold in 2005 for $271,000.

A direct water 2/2 Beachwalk in Cocoa Beach with deeded boat slip and garage closed for $155,000.

A 2/2 Royal Mansions sold for $173,000. This was a full round trip to the sky and back by this seller who purchased in 2003 for $175,000.

A 3rd floor direct ocean Wellington 2/2 in downtown Cocoa Beach closed for $225,000.

My favorite deal of the month was a 4th floor Cocoa Beach Towers 2/2 with a great view of the Pier from the generous balcony that closed for $260,000.

Another good one was a 6th floor direct ocean Waters Edge 2/2 in south Cocoa Beach that went for $270,000.

Capitulation sale of the month was a developer sale of a new Garden Bay direct Banana River 3/3 with 2210 sq. ft. that sold for $285,000.

Fastest evaporation of money sale was a short sale Magnolia Bay 3/3 in south Cocoa Beach that closed for $300,000 just three years after selling for $589,900.

A gorgeous 2nd floor south corner Coral Sands 3/2 in south Cocoa Beach went for $345,000.

There are 125 units under contract this morning according to the MLS with 64 of those short sales and 15 bank-owned. Inventory has increased slightly probably a function of the slow sales in February.

MLS inventory Mar 14 , 2010 Cocoa Beach & Cape Canaveral

Condos, all prices_____596
over $500,000_________72
Single family homes___131
over $500,000_________43

It was one of those March days when the sun shines hot and the wind blows cold: when it is summer in the light, and winter in the shade.
____Charles Dickens