More trend examination

Rise of the full moon Nov. 27, 2012

Being a numbers guy I'm constantly doing mental math and looking for patterns in everything. At restaurants I'm silently estimating average ticket, seating capacity and rate of table turn and doing an estimated daily gross instead of just enjoying my meal. It's a curse. I spent a good part of the Art Festival last weekend trying to estimate hourly take for the Kettle Korn guys who had a line at almost all times waiting to shell out $5 or more for bags of yummy Kettle Korn. Let's just say that they had a good weekend. Finding myself this morning without any scheduled property showings, I thought it was a good time to once again crunch the details of the recent sales and try to determine some of the current trends. I used the most recent completed month, October, for closed MLS-listed condo sales in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. Not surprising is the continuing reduction in the percentage of cash sales nor is the continuing shrinkage of distressed sales. Selling price as a percentage of asking price remains high as does the high number of quick sales and full asking price sales. Stats from those sales are below.

Total condo and townhomes sales - 55
Distressed (short and foreclosed) - 25% - down from 34% in September
Financed with a mortgage - 47%
Cash sales - 53% - down from 75% just a year ago.
Sold in less than 30 days on market - 44%
Sold for full asking price or more - 24%
Average selling price as a percentage of asking price - 96%

The busiest price range was between $100,000 and $200,000 with 40% of all sales falling in that range. 35% of the sales closed for less than $100,000 and 25% closed for more than $200,000.

Condo inventory this morning stands at 286 units with an additional 50 single family homes for sale in the two cities. Only 11% of the active listings are distressed. With the current dynamics it is more important than ever to be well-informed if looking to buy. With so much competition for the priced-right listings (almost half selling in less than a month and a full quarter selling for full asking or more) buyers need to know how to identify those listings. Throwing out random lowball offers isn't working right now. The lowest discount to asking in October was 15% and was a sale in which I represented the buyer. Just throwing out an offer that was 85% of asking would not have succeeded. We were able to show the seller that their asking was unreasonably high and produced solid comps to justify our reasonable offer. By knowing the market and doing our homework and then demonstrating the reasoning behind our offer we were successful in our purchase.

Low offers without justification have very little chance of success in this market. Conversely, knowing what the current market is paying for properties with specific criteria, basing an offer on that knowledge and providing substantiation with the offer is a recipe with a very good chance of success. For unique or low-supply property types, buyers may have to try another strategy. Your buyer's agent, if he's good and if he's doing his job, will know what tack to take. As always, knowledge is power. Have questions? Call or email me.

"There is no excellent beauty that has not some strangeness in the proportion."  ______Francis Bacon

November halftime report

I didn't choose the thug life. Thug life chose me.

The week of Thanksgiving 2012 and as of Tuesday morning the 20th, 21 MLS listed condos and townhomes have closed in the month in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. The majority of the closed sales fall in the over $200,000 range with a full third closing at prices between $200,000 and $300,000. This is a shift away from the lower price ranges that we've been expecting as the supply of sub $100,000 distressed listings have dried up. I don't track median closed prices but it appears that that number has probably moved significantly higher this year because of this shift.

Sales of note so far have included the following:

A 2nd floor 3/3 corner unit in the new Ocean Cove building in south Cocoa Beach with 1902 square feet and a single garage that closed for $585,000. This was the last new unit for sale in the building.

Another direct ocean, this one a 4th floor SE corner 3/3 unit in Sand Dunes Cape Canaveral closed for $450,000. One car garage and 2102 square feet.

A 10 year old Country Club Point direct Banana River 4/3 that has been on the market since 2008 sold for $399,000. This beautiful unit has high ceilings, 2 car garage and 2115 square feet.

A nicely remodeled 4th floor direct ocean Xanadu 2/2 sold for $330,000. These units are big for a 2/2 at 1761 square feet. This unit had a one car garage and new hurricane shutters in addition to the new remodel.

River Bend in south Cocoa Beach was on fire last month with several closed sales. Another  unit has closed so far this month. This one a 3rd floor direct river 3/2 with 2050 square feet and one car garage. Closed for $282,500.

Two non-direct ocean Shorewood units have closed. Both were 5th floor B building big 2/2 units with 1862 square feet and one car garages. One was a corner with wrap balcony and was newly remodeled. It sold for $280,000. The other non-corner sold furnished for $235,000.

A 3/2, 2nd floor direct ocean Sun Club in south Cocoa Beach closed for $250,000. Small for a 3/2 at 1344 square feet. Has a one car garage.

A 2nd floor direct river 8 year old Solana River unit in Cape Canaveral sold for $225,000. This big 2/2 unit has 2055 square feet and a single car garage.

Three units at 6 year old Bayport have closed so far this month. All had one car garages. A 5th floor 3/2 corner with 2092 square feet sold for $220,000. Another 5th floor non-corner with 2032 square feet closed for $182,900. A same size 3/2 on the 4th floor closed for $163,000.

A top floor (5th) Port Royal SW corner 3/2 with 1572 square feet sold fully furnished for $220,000. Had a one car garage and was partially remodeled.

One of the bank-owned Pier Resort 3/3 east facing units with 1900 square feet and one car garage sold for $175,501.

A 2nd floor direct river Costa del Sol 2/2 with 1315 square feet and one-car sold for $147,000.

A 2nd floor 6 year old Puerto del Rio short sale wins the "smoking deal" award in this group of sales. This 3/2 corner with 1862 square feet and one-car closed for $140,000.

A lakefront Harbor Isles 3/2 on the 2nd floor closed for $140,000. This 1401 square foot unit came with a one car garage.

A furnished non-waterfront Four Seasons 2/2 with 1058 square feet and no garage closed for $92,000.

A ground floor 7 year old Portside Villas 1 bedroom 1.5 bath with 943 square feet sold for $76,000. No garage.

MLS condo and townhome inventory stands at 288 units for sale this morning and there are 49 single family homes for sale in the two cities. Forty listings are either short sales or foreclosures making 12% of the total inventory distressed.

Space Coast Art Festival is this weekend in downtown Cocoa Beach. If you can, try to make it. The streets will be closed off and there will be thousands of friends and visitors checking out the hundreds of exhibits. It's always a good time.

"There are things we do not know we don't know." __Donald Rumsfeld

The trend is your friend (sometimes)

Click on charts for larger easier-to-read versions.

The trends of recent months remain firmly in place. Sales held strong through October (55 condos and 9 single family homes) even as the inventory depletion continued. At October's rate of sales it will take just five months to sell the entire MLS inventory.

Distressed listings (short sales and foreclosures) in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral are now at their lowest point since 2007 when there were none. Of our total residential inventory of 325 homes and condos there are only 32 short sales and foreclosures offered, 10%. Only one of those is a single family home.

2013 should be an interesting and different year for real estate sales in our market. I expect selling prices to continue their slow increase as a side effect of the low inventory and diminishing distressed listings. We should also see far fewer total sales next year unless some as-yet-unknown source of properties falls on our market. The rumored backlog of bank-owned properties predicted to flood markets has yet to appear here on the beach. At this point I see no reason to think that we will see any significant number of new bank-owned listings here. County records show quite a few REO properties in other parts of our county but they include very few in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. Personal anecdotal observations seem to indicate far fewer unit owners behind on condo fees than in recent years. This from daily conversations with owners, board members and property managers. That would support my hunch that there are not a lot of pre-foreclosure or future short sale condos hiding out there.

Buyers need to realize the changes in our market and adjust their expectations accordingly if they hope to purchase a property here. Those hanging their hats on paying no more than the lowest price already recorded for a comparable property will likely be disappointed. Unless there are multiple units selling at the exact same price, only one buyer buys at the absolute bottom. Everyone else has to be content with buying near the bottom. At current prices, missing the absolute bottom by a few thousand dollars does not a bad deal make. Buyers with reasonable expectations (swift decision making doesn't hurt) are still being occasionally rewarded with smoking deals.

“Markets aren’t completely efficient, but they are mostly efficient. Easy money tends to be rapidly removed by the largest, fastest, most connected participants. In other words, someone other than you.” __from Mortality Sucks

October out with a bang

Slater Brothers contest site Sunday Oct. 28, 2012

While the Twitter feed of my daily updates is down I will post updates to the main blog here. Twitter and several other major websites are feeling the effects of Hurricane Sandy.

First we'll look at the single-family home sales since last Wednesday.

Lowest price of the five sales was for a 2 story, 2 bedroom, 2 bath beach house in south Cocoa Beach across the street from the beach and a stone's throw from the river. It had a garage and 1433 square feet and closed for $164,200.

A 10 year old 3/2 half-duplex on Adams in Cape Canaveral with 1476 square feet and 2 car garage sold for $169,000.

A foreclosed 3/2 on Dorset in Cocoa Beach with 1858 square feet and 2 car garage sold for $202,000.

A super nice 3/2 with 1860 square feet and 2 car garage in Harbor Heights Cape Canaveral sold for $325,000.

The huge 5 year old, 2 story beauty at the end of the canal on Catalina in Cocoa Beach that's been for sale for around two years finally sold. This house has 7 bedrooms, 4.5 baths, a 3 car garage and a total of 6475 square feet under air. Closed for a remarkable $599,000.

Condo sales of note in the last week included the following:

A 4th floor direct ocean Meridian 3 bedroom, 2 bath with 2072 square feet with many upgrades and built-ins and garage closed for $690,000. According to my research, this is the first resale at Meridian that has sold for more than the original when-new selling price. Times are a-changing.

A 4th floor Michelina direct ocean 3 bedroom, 3 bath corner with 2011 square feet and garage sold for $680,000 according to the MLS. Details of this sale are somewhat hazy as the sale is recorded on the appraiser's site for $560,000. Insight anyone?

A 2nd floor direct ocean southeast corner Chateau by the Sea (next to the Pier). It was a 2 bedroom 2 bath completely remodeled and furnished weekly rental unit. Closed for $255,000.

Two River Bend side view units in south Cocoa Beach closed in the last week. Both were 3/2 units with 2292 square feet and garage. A 4th floor south facing closed for $250,000 and a 2nd floor north facing sold for $240,000.

A furnished, very nice condition Coral Seas 2nd floor direct ocean 3 bedroom 2 bath with 1969 square feet and garage closed for $320,000.

A furnished Flores del Mar south facing 2nd floor, 3 bedroom, 2 bath with 1589 square feet and garage sold for $255,000.

A south ocean view 5th floor 2100 Towers 2/2 with updated kitchen and garage closed for $215,000.

A 4th floor direct Banana River fully furnished River Lakes 2/2 with 1244 square feet and garage closed for $180,500.

A direct river Sunset Harbor 4th floor 2/2 with 1323 square feet and two garages sold for $154,000.

A 5th floor ocean view, fully furnished Port Royal of Cocoa Beach 1 bedroom 1 bath with 960 square feet and garage sold for $130,000.

A 2nd floor furnished Villages of Seaport 2/2 with 1014 square feet and open parking closed for $144,000.

An Oceana of Cocoa Beach 2/2 with 912 square feet and garage closed for $112,000.

A 3rd floor Twin Towers short sale 1 bedroom 1 bath sold for $71,100.

A very nice ground floor Riverview Manor 1/1 with 665 square feet and open parking sold for $61,000.

It was a busy week. After being postponed for two days because of Hurricane Sandy the Slater Brothers Annual Surf Festival ran last Sunday in perfect conditions, sunny skies, offshore winds and surf that was clean and a couple of feet overhead. Local boy CJ Hobgood took a break from the world tour to come home and snatch first place away from the less-fortunate local boys. All this while Sandy was bearing down on the northeast with (unknown at the time) devastation. Our thoughts are with all of those so severely affected by the storm.

"Mounting evidence suggests that beer, and the beer industry that surrounds it, may be as good for growth as excess sobriety." ___Charles Kenny

Catch-up on October activity

I am back. Thanks to the tolerance of those who've had to deal with my very sporadic access to email and total lack of cell phone service for the last two weeks. I am freshly recharged and here for you again. For the record, I was delivering a boat from Florida to Abaco in the eastern Bahamas. Weather was mainly perfect and the diving was a welcome change from our less than clear and always deep waters offshore central Florida. The tasty crustaceans pictured were welcome visitors to the dinner plate most nights. Lobsters the size of the two larger ones are unusual in the Bahamas but are there if you know where to look. For perspective, the smallest one pictured is just barely legal size. Easy access to these abundant and beautiful waters is just another plus of living in Cocoa Beach. One hour from Melbourne International Airport by air.

During the two weeks there has been brisk activity in the Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral real estate market, mainly in condos. A total of 22 units closed in my absence. Sales ranged from a high of $347,500 for a remodeled and fully furnished, direct ocean 6th floor Emerald Seas 3/2 to $42,776 for a foreclosed Lamp Post 1/1 that was listed for $29,900. That's 43% over asking price. Competition in the lower price ranges has become fierce as supply has dried up. A slightly larger Star Beach foreclosure closed for $35,700.

A couple of short sale 3/2 units on Orlando Ave. one block from the beach were picked up by an investor for $65,000 and $85,000. Both sold for $6000 over asking.

A Portside Villas 2/2 ground floor sold as a short sale for full asking price, $89,900. It took about 2.5 months from contract to close. This particular unit sold new in 2006 for $229,900.

A direct ocean, top floor (5th) Sand Dunes in Cape Canaveral sold as a short sale for $305,000. It is a 3/2 with 1612 square feet and a garage. This particular short sale was previously approved by the bank with another buyer at $325,000. When that buyer walked I presented an offer for my client for $305,000 and we were able to get approval at the $20,000 lower price.

A 4th floor Treasure Island Club 2/2 in Cape Canaveral overlooking the manatee canal sold for a remarkable $110,000 as a court ordered sale. It has 1200 square feet and an excellent view.

In another short sale, someone bought a 1st floor direct ocean Sand Pebbles 3/2 with 1375 square feet and garage for $195,000.

A gorgeously remodeled 2/2 Beachwalk canal-front unit with deeded boat slip and garage sold for $165,000. It has 1479 square feet. This sale pushes the comps up in this complex after the last two sales recorded for $130,000 each.

A 3rd floor 2100 Towers 2/2 with a peek of the ocean closed fully furnished for $168,000. It has a remodeled kitchen but no garage.

Another of the Sea Spray townhomes in Cape Canaveral sold as a foreclosure for $91,000 which was $1100 above asking price. These units sold new in 2006 for $315,000. Garage, 1702 square feet and 3 bedrooms and 3 baths.

A direct ocean North Triton Arms 2 bedroom 1.5 bath, 2nd floor unit in downtown Cocoa Beach closed for full asking price, $175,000, after two days on the market.

Buyers take note. If you see "bank-approved" price on a short sale listing it usually means that the first buyer walked after the bank issued the approval letter. There are many reasons for walking away. Sometimes the buyers have found something else during the often-long wait but many times the bank approved price is higher than their initial contract and they refuse to move up to the approved price which may still be in "smoking deal" range. What it means for the next buyer is that, if they are good with the approved price, they can usually close in less than a month. Just because the first buyer walked doesn't mean the approved price is not a deal.

I will resume my usual schedule of updates now. Wind is honking in Cocoa Beach and the island I just left is preparing for Tropical Storm (soon to be Hurricane) Sandy.

"One of the unique things about planes is you can put them pretty much
anywhere you want. They just might not be in the configuration you'd
prefer by the time they get there." ___anonymous

Seriously out of the office

I will be relocating my office temporarily to the pictured location.

Posts may be less frequent in the short term. If it's any consolation, I'm thinking about you.
  
Please direct all calls to Kim at 321.917.5788 or emails to cocoabeachkim@gmail.com

Larry


J̸͚̯͍̞̰̘̘ͣ͠ȅ̗͈̼̥̼͎͓̭̓́ͅā̴̖̤̳͇͖̯̺ͮͥ̈͠ļ̛͖̬͙̝͉̻ͦ͆ͦ͒̋ͨ̌ͨ͘o̳̪̲ͭ̐u̹̮̺ͭ̃ͨ͒͋͊̒̐s̡̬̗͇̠̖̑ͨ͂͛̿y̨͚̠̹̼̱̽̇͋͗ͭ͜͞ ͍͚͔̘̀ͫͨ̄̆̍́i͉̜̤̱̜͗ͯ́̕s̛͉̘͓̠̃ͤ̈́̑͂ͤ̊ͩ͜ ͐ͧ͌̈́͏͈̬̜̻̠́t̴͓̰͇͙̫̭̠̃̓͛͑́͡h̸͉̰̥ͯ̆̕͡e͙̗̜̱ͭ̐͐͒ͧ ̐͛͛̍̍ͦ҉̦̻̰̝̤̟t̶̼̮ͩ͗́ṟ̸̘͙̠͎̺̣͌͝į̸̶̙̱̤̭̂̃ͮ̍͌̈́ͣͯb̴̩͕̝ͬ͘u̸̮̜̯͋̾̾̿ͦ̚ẗ̤̮͠͝e̴̵̳̮̅̄ͫ͆͛ͫ̂ ̹̦̭̾̅̏͆͢͡ͅm̵̛̪͔̰̝͕͖͍̖̑̇ͅė̛̙̜͎̯̏̊ͪ̀̕ͅd̺̪̙̪̣̭̲̲͗̂̂͑̀i̛̛͚̙̝̫̻͍ͮ̽͢o̵̪̼̯ͥͪ̕͘c̨͍̻͈̼̓͆̃͗͑͆ͥ̈́̐r̸̮̘̬͍̪̺̭ͭ̚͘͞i̘͈͍͉̒̇t̷͙̘̖̥̩̒̃ͨ̋ͭ̋̋ͬ͝ÿ͓͍̪̮ ̪̥͊p͓̞̝͇̯͓̙̽̈́ͪͦ̎̚ä̸̡͕̦͙̘̰̫̰́ͧ̚̚ý̴̬̤͚͈͍̹ͥ͌̓̒̌ͧ̊̆͞š̵̶̰͍̠ͥ̓ͭͯ̕ ̴̶̬̲̖̞̜̱͈̥ͪ́́̓ͪͨṭ͎̰̮̯̬͂ͣ̃̑̈ͭ͘͞o̗͕̤̼̜̰̥͆ͭ͞ ̠̱̭̩̘̰̠̄̐͋͋͝g̤͖̎ͮ̄̚͜e̵̡̠̤̝ͪͅn̢͙̫̥̦̻̈͗ͩ̊ͣ̂̈ͬ͞ĭ͔̻̳̒̾̐̐ͩ̑̕͝ȗ͖̝͎̖͔̾ͣ͊ͭ̀͢͢ͅs̵̡̗̍̎̈̓̚͠.̟̭̂ͭ̿́ ̷̳̙̊ͦ̀̄F̶͖̻̺ͥ̎ü̪̑ͪ̇̓ͮ̒͢͝l̸̵̨̙͙̲̺͍͓̮̰͉̀́̌̿t̷̵̴̗̬ͯͮ̊͒̍ǒ̍͏̩͖͕͓̤̬͔̮͟n̸̛̤̣͈̒̈́̾̄ ̨ͨͯ͒ͨ̉̚͏̷̬͈J̻̰͖̪̒͜.̡͛ͣ̈́ͧ̍ͧ͏͔̩̠͔ ̶̯͎̰̻̮͍̦̇ͮ͊̈́ͅS̉̀̊́̋͒ͪ͏͝͏͓͚h̡̢̤̞̜͔͉͑͌̀̓̑̅͌͘ͅe̿͋ͬ̇̀͏̺̳͔̬͉̻̩e̺͙̮̬̽̇̂̓̌ͪ͝nͨ͂ͨͮ́͏̜̞̦ ̴̷̲̗̻̟̱̐
͉̭̥̼͖ͬͧ̌̀ͨ́͑͟͟͡

September by the numbers

In the month of September in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral, 47 MLS-listed condominium and townhome units closed. Prices ranged from  $39,000 for a short sale, small one bedroom condo two blocks from the beach in Cape Canaveral to $950,000 for a top floor direct ocean Meridian 3 bedroom, 3 bath corner with 11' ceilings and 2508 square feet. Only four sales exceeded $400,000, all direct ocean units. There was one each in Solana Shores, Meridian, Michelina and 3800 Condo. The top floor NE corner unit at 3800 Condo closed for $550,000, exactly half its selling price new in 2007.

Thirteen of the 47 sold units were distressed, 7 short sales and 6 foreclosures. The short sales took an average of slightly more than 4.5 months from contract to close. Keep that in mind if you're looking for a short sale bargain. Also be aware that the lender may ask for more money when they do finally respond. That happened to one of my clients last week. Contract signed by the seller the first week of March and then seven months of mostly silence from the title company doing the "negotiating" until finally we get a demand of more money from the bank. We paid it and closed. The seller received total forgiveness of the debt and a nice bonus check for $3000 under the HAFA relocation program.

The six foreclosures were scattered at six different complexes with the highest price, $210,000 for a nice 4th floor Solana Lakes 3/2. Tightest haircut was a Portside Villas 2nd floor 2/2 with cathedral ceilings that sold for $75,000 just seven years after selling for $233,000 new.

There were six single family home sales in the two cities in the month. Prices ranged from $180,000 for a canal-front tear-down on Bali in Cocoa Beach to $312,500 for a nice canal-front 3/2 short sale on Antigua in Cocoa Beach.

We are still hovering right around historical low numbers of properties for sale. This morning there are a total of 48 single-family homes for sale in the two cities. That's less than a third of what it was just a few years ago. A similar situation exists with condos and townhomes, down about three quarters from the peak. Total inventory is 295 units, 21 of which have not yet been built by their somewhat optimistic developers. Of the total inventory, 12% are either short sales or foreclosures.

A Delta IV rocket launched this morning into beautiful clear blue skies carrying a GPS satellite. The mullet run is still under way along the beach and the streets are almost deserted. It's that magical time in Cocoa Beach between summer and snowbird season. The ocean water is still warm, the air temps are starting to cool down (some days), fishing is on fire,  the golf course at the Cocoa Beach Country Club is deserted and traffic is sparse. If you've not visited our town during October, you've missed one of the best times.

When times are tough, constant conflict may be good politics but in the real world, cooperation works better.  ___Bill Clinton

It IS Different Here! [blast from the past]

[This post was originally published on Halloween Day 2008. It is still relevant and true so I thought, partly motivated by laziness (if that isn't a contradiction), that I'd repost for the newer readers enjoyment.]

There is a long list of thought-terminating real estate clichés that are to the truth as fingernails are to a blackboard. Among the nominees for the best is the title of this post. Other self-serving RE industry creations are "Now's a great time to buy", "Real estate only goes up", "Interest rates are at historical lows", "Buy now or be priced out forever" and on and on. In spite of the transparent purpose of these phrases when used by Realtors about the real estate market, I will venture that "it is different here" has some compelling resonance when said about Cocoa Beach as a community. I'm not speaking as a Realtor, rather, as a resident. Our market is subject to the same influences as other markets across the state of Florida, but, it only takes a drive down A1A through the four or so blocks of "downtown" or a stroll along the uncrowded beach on a beautiful day to realize that the absence of crowds and the small-town sense of community here is a rare commodity to be treasured. I am guilty of taking what we have here for granted but it only takes a moment mired in traffic in any another coastal community in our state to remind me how good we have it. Name one other coastal Florida town that has a "Walk your child to school day" or that has a maximum speed limit of 35 MPH or whose population has not increased in the last 20 years. That is Cocoa Beach. It IS different here. If you're looking to purchase here, do your homework, know what represents good value and bargain hard. Remarkable deals continue to happen in the best little beach town in Florida.

Mosquitoes can be a problem in many areas of Florida but the constant sea breeze keeps the ocean side of the road pretty much free of them and other flying insects. On those few days that the wind shifts around from the west, mosquitoes and other small insects get blown over A1A to the ocean side and tuck into the lee of oceanfront buildings. When this happens, the dragonflies come out en masse to take advantage of the easy meal. The photo at the top is of one of these other-worldly creatures that share our airspace on offshore days like we've had recently.

"We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are."
______Anais Nin