Comments to my last post on interest rate predictions gave me the idea to ask for readers' predictions for the coming year. I'd like to hear your predictions for 2010; interest rates, home prices, employment, gold prices, inflation, stock prices, government interventions or anything else you care to offer a prediction on. Just click on the comment button below this post and let us know your thoughts. Please enter some nom de guerre (fake name) if you choose to post anonymously rather than leaving the name blank.
"Did you ever think that making a speech on economics is a lot like pissing down your leg? It seems hot to you, but it never does to anyone else."____Lyndon B. Johnson
I'll begin this with two predictions; Portside Villas (Cape Canaveral) prices have hit bottom and we'll see substantially lower prices for new condos that this year were asking over $500,000.
ReplyDeleteCocoa Beach prices will continue to decline with the loss of the Space Shuttle program.
ReplyDeleteIt's an understatement to say that this market is fragmented.Therefore,averages mean less than they normally would.Not to mention R.E.O.and otherwise distressed sales,which count but continue to still lead the market down.I fear that a normal market will continue to elude us for years.I believe 2010 is the year we will see major capitulation in high-end beachfront.Happy new year to all.
ReplyDelete2010 will be THE year for continuing and increasing commercial foreclosures as the owners hand in keys and claim BK, and the lenders face the reality that 'extend and pretend' is over.
ReplyDeleteHousing: until the monthly foreclosures consistently dip below 200 (from 800 lately), prices will continue to decline. This year, more high end homes to FC as we enter the Option ARM doom years.
Be careful out there. - local appraiser
All one has to do is look at past history to draw the proper answer on gold. Did it do well last year when the financial system was collapsing. The simple answer--NO.
ReplyDeleteHome prices depend largly on where you call home. Florida--still going to free fall. New york--slight gains.
Interest rates--tied into everything else-Employment,Inflation,Stock prices and Gov. intervention. With that said----Gov. intervention will head the list of "the wrong thing to be doing". Stock prices will fly high. They will be led by energy and Natural gas utilities with transportation and drilling rights in Barnet and the Marcellus shale. One little known Nat. gas utility to watch--National Fuel Gas in Western New york and more so- Penn.They own--yes OWN--800,000 acres in the Marcellus and have transportation lines in place to gather and transport. Just a tip of the iceberg for this growing company and a tip for the readers of your blog. These stocks will grow while others will wither after mid year.
Tommyfudster said ...
ReplyDeleteRegarding the over $500K condos, the prices have to fall due to lack of demand/affordability. Most of the condos in that price range are the 2000+ sq ft monsters. You really have to wonder why all the developers were chasing a market wealthy enough to afford $500K vacation or weekend homes. Sorry MR DEVELOPER, there just ain't enough rich folks to go around. There was a comment sometime back that the Villa Verde developer had a $8M loan for a complex with 6 units. That equates to almost $1.4M per unit. Never seen them but with that kind of investment they must be nice units. But, they were not able to sell one when they tried a short sale at $600-900K. Larry also made a convincing argument that $200 sq ft was the market for direct ocean units. My prediction is the direct ocean over $500K units will have to fall to $175-200 sq ft and the direct river units to about $125-150 sq ft or less to move any significant numbers of them.
Other predictions - unemployment will drop to 8.5-9.0% nationally by year end and will be 12-13% in north and central Brevard as the shuttle program winds down.
Previously have stated the case for 30 year mortgages closer to 4.5% than 6.0% but want to add that IMHO the recent rise in mortgage rates is primarily due to a reduction in liquidity caused by big banks securing capitalization to pay off their TARP loans so they could pamper their execs with bonuses. Yep MR WOULD BE HOMEBUYER, you are paying 1/2 percent more for your mortgage so bonuses could be paid. What a travesty.
Gold should fall to $800 an ounce. Inflation will be there but manageable. Stocks should see a good year as they struggle to recover from the "lost decade". Let’s guess the DJIA goes back to 12,000.