Saturday, October 01, 2011

Out with September [updated again 10/16]

A tasty snook caught in the surf with a Yo-Zuri minnow.

October 1, 2011 and the mullet run is in full force with billions of mullet making their annual migration down the beach shadowed by predators of every sort; tarpon, snook, bluefish, jacks, Spanish mackerel, sharks, ladyfish, trout, redfish and others. It's almost impossible to drop a baited hook or lure in the water without it being immediately crushed by a hungry something.

UPDATE 10-16 - The sold numbers for condos changed since the original post when the tardy listing agents finally recorded their sales for September. I edited the numbers below to reflect the changes. The trend didn't change, just the total sales.

Mortgage rates continued their drop in September with the average 30 year fixed rate hovering just above 4%. That extremely low rate didn't seem to be a factor as far as condo sales were concerned in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. Of the 32 condo sales in September recorded on the Cocoa Beach MLS, 25 or 78%, closed for cash. Things were a little different with single family home sales with only three out of eight (38%) closing for cash.

Two of the eight single family home sales were foreclosures but there were no short sales closed in the month. The highest sale was a foreclosed 5 bedroom canal home in the Cocoa Beach Country Club area that sold for $680,000. The lowest price was $155,000 for 3/2 in Harbor Heights, the other foreclosure. It sold after 14 days on the market for $5000 more than asking price. Another of the Enclave of Cocoa Beach homes closed, this one for $515,000. The eight homes closed for an average of 95% of last asking price.

No condos closed in the month for more than $349,000. Slightly more than half were oceanfront. Of the 32 recorded sales, 47% were distressed, seven foreclosures and eight short sales. The short sales took an average of 105 days from contract to close. The 32 condos sold for an average of 91% of last asking price.

Condo inventory in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral this morning stands at 365 units, seven of those in a yet-to-be-built building and 15 at Mystic Vistas. There are 39 listings asking more than $500,000. Ten units have closed for more than $500,000 in 2011. By contrast, 150 units have closed for less than $100,000 this year with just 55 units actively for sale right now asking less than $100,000.

[update 10-16] What I forgot to mention in the post above was the extreme fall-off in the number of condo sales. With 32 recorded condo sales, September 2011 was the slowest month this year. We have to go back to December 2009 to find a month with fewer sales. With inventory at such a depleted level this trend is likely to continue. It's getting very difficult to find attractive deals in the well picked-over MLS and priced-right new listings are selling quickly. A third of all sales in September sold in less than 30 days on the market. The more specific a buyer's criteria, the faster he should be prepared to move when a matching property gets listed or price-dropped into reasonable range.

The temp was in the low 60s this morning when the sun rose over the ocean and highs for the next 10 days are not expected to exceed 84. It's a great time to be in Cocoa Beach. Our summer visitors are gone for the most part and the winter guests have yet to arrive. The beaches are deserted, there is very little traffic and you can walk onto the Cocoa Beach Country Club golf course without a tee time. Not to mention the fishing is on fire and the occasional passing tropical storm blesses us with clean surf. See you on the beach or in the water.

"In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it is a weighing machine." ______Warren Buffett


  1. Just a couple thoughts for a wet cold 58 degree day in the Northeast.First off---how many properties would you venture to guess-would be in the dark abyss of the banking industry--called shadow inventory.Number two on the hit parade--why pray tell would anyone want to pay cash for property when 3.75% and probably lower future rates will prevail for some unforeseeable period of time.Why hold your own money hostage when excellent dividend paying stocks are paying upwards of 4-5 %.I'm talking top notch companies like Verizon---it makes no sense unless the cash buyers are so devoid of good credit that choice is not an option.Absolutely foolish to be paying cash.Let me add that any financial advisor would slap your knuckles with a ruler "Sister Felicitas 1953" for just the thought of this type of behaviour. PS-- The Lake Erie Perch are hitting like never before. And----Go Bills

  2. 1. My guesses on bank-owned but not on the market; Nationwide? a whole bunch. Cocoa Beach? not many.

    2. You can't get a mortgage in many condos regardless of your shiny credit. You either pay cash or you don't get to play. Many top notch dividend stocks have taking a drubbing in the market this year. Not everyone can pick winners all the time and some would rather risk some of their money in something they can enjoy more than a notation on a brokerage statement. For many, especially those with higher net worth, the beach condo is a fun, useful and prudent diversification.

    If my money guy even thinks about rapping my knuckles his kids are going to be wondering why they didn't get to use Uncle Larry's beach place next year.

    Any recent consumption advisories on those perch?

  3. No--they cleaned up Lake Erie from what it use to be .Sister was my 1st grade teacher.Back to the game.

  4. Two types of people enter the stock market---Traders or investors.Traders are in it from day to day and like instant gratification. Investors are in it for the long haul.Investors zero in on excellent companies with long stable track records with years of paying excellent dividends. Investors need not try to pick winners.Traders on the other hand fly by the seat of their pants and picking a winner is the name of the game.The investor can have that fun,useful and prudent diversification by collecting that dividend and in many cases--pay the mortgage,tax and possibly the HOA fee's.with that investment.The big plus side---Stock growth " yes stocks will grow in the long view ". Real estate is the risk you talk of when you state drubbing. Dividends are solid and stable. My money is in the same. Wish I never said go Bills.